Turkey shocks with big rate hike to 25% to cool raging inflation
Turkey's central bank has raised its key interest rate by 7.5 percentage points to 25% in an effort to curb inflation and stabilize the economy, leading to a jump in the Turkish lira.
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Posted 8/24/2023, 1:36:00 PM
cnn.com
Relevant topic timeline:
- The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to 5.25% despite a slowdown in consumer-price rises, leading to speculation about when the central bank will end its monetary tightening.
- House prices in Britain fell by 3.8% in July compared to the same month last year, the sharpest decline since July 2009, but the average house price was still higher than earlier this year.
- The Bank of Japan raised its cap on the yield of Japanese ten-year government bonds from 0.5% to 1%, causing the yield to soar to nine-year highs.
- Turkey's annual inflation rate increased to 47.8% in July, the first rise since October, due in part to a new tax on fuel.
- The euro area's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, with much of the growth attributed to changes in intellectual property shifting by multinationals based in Ireland for tax purposes. Germany's GDP growth rate was zero, and Italy's fell by 0.3%.
Experts are divided on whether the US Federal Reserve should raise its interest rate target to 3% to combat inflation and cushion against recessions, with some arguing that raising inflation targets would be futile.
The Central Bank of Turkey is expected to continue its policy tightening, but doubts remain as to whether the pace of tightening will be sufficient, given the high inflation rate; meanwhile, the focus in the US is on the jobs market and the unemployment rate's impact on inflation, and pessimism reigns for the euro due to concerns about the ECB's ability to raise interest rates.
Turkey's central bank surprises markets by raising interest rates more quickly than anticipated.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia believes that the US central bank has already raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to pre-pandemic levels of around 2%.
Turkey's recent interest rate hike has caught the attention of foreign investors who may consider returning to Turkish assets if the country continues to demonstrate a commitment to orthodox monetary policy and economic stability.
The Federal Reserve is considering raising interest rates again in order to reduce inflation to its targeted levels, as indicated by Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman, who stated that additional rate increases will likely be needed; however, conflicting economic indicators, such as job growth and wage growth, may complicate the decision-making process.
Inflation in Turkey reaches highest level since December 2022, with prices increasing nearly 60% compared to last year, fueled by the depreciation of the Turkish lira and independent economists suggesting consumer prices have risen as much as 128%.
Central banks across major developed and emerging economies took a breather in August with lower interest rate hikes amid diverging growth outlooks and inflation risks, while some countries like Brazil and China cut rates, and others including Turkey and Russia raised rates to combat currency weakness and high inflation.
Wall Street banks are revising their outlooks for Turkish interest rates as inflation rises faster than expected, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America suggesting that borrowing costs may need to rise higher or quicker in response to the surge in price growth.
The Bank of Canada has decided to keep its key overnight interest rate at 5% due to weaker economic growth, but stated that it may raise borrowing costs if inflationary pressures persist.
JPMorgan predicts that Turkish interest rates will increase by 10 percentage points in the next two central bank meetings due to fiscal spending plans and higher inflation.
The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates on September 14, although nearly half of economists anticipate one more increase this year in an effort to reduce inflation.
Pakistan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates to address inflation and bolster foreign exchange reserves, following a series of rate hikes earlier this year in response to economic and political crises.
The European Central Bank may raise interest rates for a 10th consecutive meeting on Thursday, but the decision is uncertain.
The European Central Bank is facing a dilemma on whether to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation or hold off due to economic deterioration, with investors split on the likelihood of a rate hike.
The European Central Bank has implemented its 10th consecutive interest rate increase in an attempt to combat high inflation, although there are concerns that higher borrowing costs could lead to a recession; however, the increase may have a negative impact on consumer and business spending, particularly in the real estate market.
The European Central Bank has raised its main interest rate for the 10th consecutive time to tackle inflation, but indicated that further hikes may be paused for now, causing the euro to fall and European stocks to rally.
The Russian central bank has raised its key interest rate to 13% in response to inflationary pressures and a weak rouble, and warns that rates will remain high for a considerable period of time, with further rate increases possible in the future.
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 5.5%, potentially marking the end of its tightening cycle, as concerns about a cooling economy grow among policymakers.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold off on raising interest rates, but consumers are still feeling the impact of previous hikes, with credit card rates topping 20%, mortgage rates above 7%, and auto loan rates exceeding 7%.
Sweden's central bank has raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive time to combat high inflation, as the country's economy shows signs of improvement, while Norway's central bank also opted to raise rates and signaled the likelihood of another hike in December.
Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, have pledged to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to combat inflation and achieve global economic stability, despite concerns about the strength of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions.