- The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to 5.25% despite a slowdown in consumer-price rises, leading to speculation about when the central bank will end its monetary tightening.
- House prices in Britain fell by 3.8% in July compared to the same month last year, the sharpest decline since July 2009, but the average house price was still higher than earlier this year.
- The Bank of Japan raised its cap on the yield of Japanese ten-year government bonds from 0.5% to 1%, causing the yield to soar to nine-year highs.
- Turkey's annual inflation rate increased to 47.8% in July, the first rise since October, due in part to a new tax on fuel.
- The euro area's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, with much of the growth attributed to changes in intellectual property shifting by multinationals based in Ireland for tax purposes. Germany's GDP growth rate was zero, and Italy's fell by 0.3%.
### Summary
The removal of Covid-19 restrictions in New Zealand has had significant effects on the economy, including high house prices, increased debt, and inflation, although unemployment has decreased.
### Facts
- 🏠 House prices, despite a decrease from their 2021 peak, are still nearly $200,000 higher than in 2019 due to low interest rates during the pandemic period.
- 👥 Unemployment has decreased, but government debt has significantly increased.
- 📈 Inflation, measured in both the consumer price index and the food price index, has soared.
- 🪂 Tourism has recovered to about 75% of pre-Covid levels, and migrants have returned in large numbers.
- 💼 The economy has held up better than expected in 2020, with a sharp contraction during lockdowns followed by a quick bounce back.
- 🔬 Covid has accelerated the use of technology, condensing five years of progress into a short time period.
- 💰 Despite positive macroeconomic data, people's household finances have been impacted, with increased spending on essentials and adjusted wage increases that do not keep up with inflation.
- 💸 Government spending has increased and is projected to remain high, despite most Covid-related spending being finished.
- 📉 Government revenue as a proportion of GDP is forecasted to be higher than expected in 2019, leading to a larger pot of money for looser expenditure.
Please note that some information in the text may be subjective or based on the opinions of economists.
### Summary
Average wages in Britain rose at a rate of 7.8% annually between April and June, outpacing inflation of 6.8% in July. However, the long-term picture shows that workers are still no better off than they were four years ago, indicating the need for sustained pay rises to improve living standards.
### Facts
- 💰 Average wages in Britain rose at a rate of 7.8% annually between April and June.
- 📉 Inflation in July was 6.8%, lower than the previous month's figure of 7.9%.
- ⚠️ The long-term data shows that workers are no better off than they were four years ago.
- 🔒 The Bank of England is concerned about wage rises leading to inflation becoming entrenched in the economy.
- 📉 The UK's productivity levels have fallen behind its peers since the financial crisis.
### Additional Information
- The Bank of England and Chancellor discourage asking for higher wages, fearing a wage-price spiral.
- The current UK real average weekly earnings figure is the same as it was in May 2019 and December 2010, and no better than in March 2006.
- Sustained pay rises are needed for workers to improve their living standards.
Britain's public debt load has risen by more than 40% to nearly £2.6 trillion ($3.3 trillion) since the pandemic began, causing concerns about the country's ability to service its liabilities and reigniting questions about its credit rating. The heavy reliance on index-linked bonds and the threat of inflation could further worsen the situation, potentially leading to a negative economic spiral that could last for years. The UK's debt burden is already higher than its entire annual economic output, and without action, it could balloon to three times the GDP over the next half century.
UK factory output has fallen sharply to its lowest level in nearly three years, indicating that Bank of England interest rate increases are slowing the economy, according to the latest manufacturing snapshot from the CBI.
Despite predictions of a slowdown, the American economy continues to show strong growth, with recent data suggesting annualized growth of nearly 6% in the third quarter; however, concerns about overheating and potential inflation, as well as increasing bond yields, raise doubts about the sustainability of this growth.
UK PMI data suggests a 0.2% decline in GDP in Q3, indicating a potential recession as factory output slumps and the economy faces higher interest rates.
The UK and eurozone economies are at risk of recession due to a significant slowdown in private sector activity, with the UK experiencing its poorest performance since the Covid lockdown and Germany being hit particularly hard; the US is also showing signs of strain, with activity slowing to near-stagnation levels.
Nigeria's economy experienced faster growth in the second quarter of 2023, driven by the services sector, although the growth rate was lower than the previous year due to challenging economic conditions.
A post-pandemic global economy characterized by record levels of government debt, geopolitical tensions, and weak productivity gains may lead to a slow-growth future that hinders development in some countries even before it begins, as discussed at a symposium organized by the Kansas City Federal Reserve.
The US economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter, but still showed more strength than expected, with GDP revised down to 2.1% from an initial 2.4%; however, forecasts indicate a robust reading in the third quarter of 2.5% or higher, despite concerns of a potential recession.
The UK economy recovered to pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2021, earlier than previously thought, with GDP growth revised up by 0.9 percentage points to an 8.5% increase in 2021, according to the Office for National Statistics.
British factories in August experienced their weakest month since the start of the COVID-19 crisis due to shrinking orders caused by rising interest rates, according to a survey, resulting in a decline in purchasing activity, inventory holdings, and staffing levels. However, the slowdown in domestic and export demand has alleviated inflation pressures, potentially leading to a decrease in goods price inflation. With the economy showing signs of a slowdown, the Bank of England is expected to raise rates for the 15th consecutive time, despite concerns that it may lead to a recession.
The UK economy has recovered more quickly from the pandemic than previously thought, outperforming Germany and other major Western industrial nations, although it still lags behind the G7 average, and there are concerns about the potential for a recession due to manufacturing struggles, sliding house prices, inflation, and strikes.
The UK statistics office has made significant revisions to growth data, revealing a much healthier economy, which could have positive implications for investors.
Revisions to economic data by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have revealed that the UK economy was 0.6% larger at the end of 2021 than previously estimated, improving the country's performance relative to its peers in the G7. The revisions also highlight the impact of stockpiling in 2020 and indicate stronger growth in 2021, particularly in sectors such as wholesale trade and health services. However, while the revisions provide a more positive outlook, the UK's economic narrative remains relatively mediocre compared to pre-pandemic levels.
British consumer spending growth slowed in August, despite a surge in cinema takings after the release of films like "Barbie", with spending on essentials such as food and fuel growing at its slowest rate since April 2020, pointing to a weakening economy.
Despite previous concerns about the UK economy, revised GDP data shows that the economy had already recovered to its pre-Covid size in 2021, indicating that Brexit's impact on the economy has been weaker than previously thought.
Wage growth in the UK has caught up with rising prices, resulting in real pay no longer falling, according to official figures, although the unemployment rate has risen and job vacancies have fallen. The data will also impact the state pension, which is set to increase by 8.5% next April.
British pay growth hits a record high, potentially leading the Bank of England to raise interest rates again, despite a cooling labor market with rising unemployment and falling job vacancies.
UK gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.5% in July, below expectations, with services output being the main drag on the economy, indicating a potential mild recession, and causing investment banks to revise down their growth forecasts; however, some experts still believe that the economy is growing, albeit at a slower pace.
The UK's GDP has contracted more than expected in July due to strikes, adverse weather, and a decline in retail trade, with a 0.5% decrease, although the broader picture indicates growth across various sectors; meanwhile, wages have risen by 7.8% and unemployment has increased to 4.3%.
Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan have revised their full-year growth forecast for the UK's GDP due to a sharp contraction in the economy in July, with JPM now expecting 0.4% expansion and Goldman Sachs projecting 0.3% growth. Economists warn of the possibility of a recession as poor economic data continues to emerge, and GDP data indicates a weakening economy.
Britain's main manufacturing trade body has lowered its growth forecast for the sector due to a decline in factory output and economic uncertainty, with expectations of a 0.5% fall in output in 2023 and a growth of only 0.5% in 2024.
Spain's post-COVID economic growth has exceeded expectations, with GDP rising by 5.8% in 2022 and 6.4% in 2021, higher than previous estimates, due to new economic data and challenges in measuring economic activity during the pandemic, according to the Institute of National Statistics (INE).
The UK economy is predicted to continue its stagnant state in 2024, with some economists and business groups even foreseeing a recession, while others, including the Bank of England, the IMF, and the OECD, anticipate modest growth despite high interest rates and a slowing global economic outlook. Different factors, such as labor hoarding and regions bucking the trend, complicate the overall picture, but overall, a stagnant or minimally growing economy seems likely.
New Zealand's economy, which slipped into a recession earlier this year, experienced modest growth of 0.9% in June, but economists warn that the weak figures are unlikely to improve significantly due to the looming global economic downturn caused by the pandemic and supply chain disruptions. The ruling Labour Party, facing declining support in the polls ahead of the October 14 election, is also grappling with rising prices and concerns about inflation.
The UK economy shows signs of recovering from the economic shocks of the pandemic and Ukraine war, but deep-rooted challenges remain, particularly in terms of underinvestment in both the private and public sectors, low productivity, and declining public services.
The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace of 2.1% in the second quarter, but consumer spending was weaker than previously reported, although recent evidence suggests a rebound in consumer spending and GDP is expected to rise in the third quarter.
The U.S. economy is growing faster than expected, with the International Monetary Fund upgrading its growth forecast due to strong business investment, worker shortages, and government spending, while the global economy faces a mixed recovery with slower growth in the euro area and China.
The UK GDP YoY growth rate is in line with expectations, showing a positive response to July's contraction, while the three-month average also meets forecasts, indicating a choppy economic outlook domestically and internationally as global growth slows down.
Despite high interest rates and sluggish GDP growth, analysts predict that the UK will avoid a recession due to a likely end to rate increases, falling inflation, and a return to real pay growth.
Economists warn that Britain's economy will grow less than expected next year due to the impact of higher interest rates and a weaker labor market, with GDP growth expected to be 0.7% in 2024. However, EY upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%, citing an end to interest rate increases, falling inflation, and a return to real wage growth as factors that should prevent a recession. Inflation is expected to fall faster than previously forecast, reaching 4.5% by the end of the year before hitting the Bank of England's 2% target in the second half of 2024.
Average pay growth in the UK has surpassed inflation for the first time in almost two years, indicating a potential easing of living costs, with wages rising at an annual rate of 7.8% between June and August, outpacing average inflation over the same period. However, there remains a significant disparity between public and private sector pay, and while inflation is slowing, it still remains above the Bank of England's target.
Average earnings excluding bonuses in the UK rose by 7.8% annually, the fastest growth rate since 2001, alongside a cooling in inflation, but experts warn that declining job markets could slow down future pay growth.
The U.S. economy is experiencing rapid growth, with GDP predicted to exceed 4% in the third quarter, but there are concerns that this may be followed by a recession due to factors such as stagnant incomes, cautious businesses, and economic uncertainties.
The U.S. economy is expected to have grown by more than 4% in the third quarter, thanks to increased spending by households, businesses, and the government, along with a strong job market and pandemic savings, though there are concerns that higher borrowing costs and various uncertainties could slow growth in the coming months.
Despite a strong GDP report showing a surge in the economy, President Biden's economic approval ratings remain low, and economists predict that growth may slow in the near future due to rising borrowing costs and other factors.
The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, driven by robust consumer spending and resilient labor market, despite warnings of a recession; however, growth may slow in the fourth quarter due to factors such as auto worker strikes and student loan repayments.
Consumer spending continued to drive economic growth in the third quarter of 2023, as gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a rate of 4.9%, beating expectations and putting recession fears to rest. However, concerns about high mortgage rates and limited housing supply could slow economic growth in the coming quarters.
The US economy grew at a faster-than-expected rate in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending despite higher interest rates and inflation pressures, with GDP rising by 4.9% from the previous quarter.
