### Summary
The chief global economist at Piper Sandler has warned that the U.S. economy is set to worsen before improving, and Americans should save money and maintain their savings. Rising everyday prices, declining manufacturing activity, excessive government spending, and a tight labor market are all contributing factors.
### Facts
- Americans are spending $709 more on everyday goods in July compared to two years ago.
- One-third of U.S. households spent more than 30% of their income on housing in 2021.
- Excessive government spending is blamed for high prices.
- The declining birth rate and closure of maternity wards indicate that Americans are postponing having children.
- Inflation is a major challenge for the economy, and a recession will put pressure on all wealth groups.
- The economist argues that the fiscal stimulus from the Inflation Reduction Act has had a "counterproductive" impact on controlling inflation.
- To see an economic turnaround by 2025, the private sector needs to drive capital spending, while curbing government spending and reforming entitlements is necessary.
- The economist hopes for sustained low inflation and increased labor force participation but emphasizes the need for tough decisions in Washington.
- The economist believes that the U.S. needs to get its fiscal house in order to become a leader in the global economy.
The US economy has exceeded the Federal Reserve's estimate of its growth potential in recent years, with growth averaging 3% under President Joe Biden, but concerns about rising public debt and inflation, as well as the Fed's efforts to control them, may lead to slower growth in the future and potentially a recession. However, there are hints of improving productivity that could support continued economic growth.
Despite initial predictions of a recession, the U.S. economy has experienced unexpected growth, with high consumer spending and continued borrowing and investment by businesses being key factors.
The U.S. economy continues to grow above-trend, consumer spending remains strong, and the labor market is tight; however, there are concerns about inflation and rising interest rates which could impact the economy and consumer balance sheets, leading to a gradual softening of the labor market.
U.S. economic growth may be accelerating in the second half of 2023, defying earlier recession forecasts and leading to a repricing of long-term inflation and interest rate assumptions.
Recent profit reports from companies such as Amazon, Walmart, and Home Depot, along with other consumer statistics, indicate that the case for a 2023 recession is weakening, as the consumer economy shows resilience with rising real incomes, substantial savings, and continued spending in sectors like automobiles and services.
Despite predictions of a slowdown, the American economy continues to show strong growth, with recent data suggesting annualized growth of nearly 6% in the third quarter; however, concerns about overheating and potential inflation, as well as increasing bond yields, raise doubts about the sustainability of this growth.
The US economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter, but still showed more strength than expected, with GDP revised down to 2.1% from an initial 2.4%; however, forecasts indicate a robust reading in the third quarter of 2.5% or higher, despite concerns of a potential recession.
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter, showing resilience despite higher borrowing costs and a slight downgrade from the initial estimate of 2.4%, driven by consumer spending, business investment, and government outlays.
U.S. job growth is slowing down but remains steady, with the unemployment rate settling at 3.5% in July and predictions that the August jobs report will show similar results, although concerns remain regarding potential slowdowns and negative growth.
The gap between wage growth and inflation is closing, with projections indicating that it may fully close by the fourth quarter of 2024, providing workers with the opportunity to recover from the recent surge in prices; however, wage gains across different industries vary significantly, with sectors like accommodation and food services, leisure and hospitality, and retail experiencing higher wage increases compared to education, finance, construction, and manufacturing.
The U.S. economy is expected to expand at a 2.2% annual rate in the current quarter, according to a real-time estimate from the New York Federal Reserve, which is lower than the Atlanta Fed's estimate of 5.6% growth; the strength of the economy will impact the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates and inflation.
The labor markets are expected to pause on rate changes as the economy slows down, with growth in employment and capital expenditure decreasing and downside risks increasing, such as higher interest payments for the government and a potential United Auto Workers strike. However, there is hope for a rebound in 2024 with a potential pause in rate cuts and moderating inflation.
Despite rising gas prices, Americans remain optimistic about inflation easing, as expectations for inflation rates in the year ahead have fallen to the lowest level since March 2021, according to a consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. However, concerns are surfacing about a potential government shutdown, which could dampen consumer views on the economy.
American workers are facing a decline in median annual household income due to high inflation, with 17 states experiencing a decrease while only five saw an increase, according to data from the Census Bureau. The labor market remains challenging, with wages rising but not enough to keep up with inflation.
Goldman Sachs warns that three factors - the resumption of student loan payments, the autoworkers' strike, and a potential government shutdown - could lead to a significant slowdown in US GDP growth during the fourth quarter of 2023.
The auto workers' strike, although currently limited in its impact, could have significant growth implications if it expands and persists, potentially causing a 1.7 percentage point quarterly hit to GDP and complicating policymaking for the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve has paused raising interest rates and projects that the US will not experience a recession until at least 2027, citing improvement in the economy and a "very smooth landing," though there are still potential risks such as surging oil prices, an auto worker strike, and the threat of a government shutdown.
The impending federal shutdown, combined with other economic challenges such as rising gas prices, student loan payments, and reduced pandemic savings, is expected to strain American households and potentially weaken economic growth in the last quarter of the year.
The US economy is currently in decent shape, with a resilient labor market, moderated inflation, and expected strong GDP growth, but there are potential headwinds and uncertainties ahead, including UAW strikes, student debt payments resuming, and the risk of a government shutdown, which could collectively have a significant impact on the economy. Additionally, the labor market is slowing down, inflation remains a concern, and the actions of the Federal Reserve and other factors could influence the economic outlook. While there are reasons for optimism, there are also risks to consider.
The Federal Reserve's forecast for the U.S. economy shows that while inflation and unemployment are close to their goals, economic growth will remain weak, primarily due to low labor productivity.
The US economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace from April to June, remaining resilient despite higher interest rates, but consumer spending weakened while business investment and government outlays contributed to the expansion.
The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace of 2.1% in the second quarter, but consumer spending was weaker than previously reported, although recent evidence suggests a rebound in consumer spending and GDP is expected to rise in the third quarter.
The summer's positive economic indicators, such as lower inflation and strong job numbers, have led to optimism that the US will avoid a recession, but factors such as a potential auto strike, the resumption of student-loan repayments, and a government shutdown could contribute to a downturn. The combined impact of these factors, along with others like higher interest rates and oil prices, suggests that a recession may be looming.
Summary: The U.S. stock market had a bad quarter, with all indexes falling, while the World Bank lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific, and China's demand for commodities continues to grow despite the downgrade. Additionally, a last-minute spending bill was passed to avoid a government shutdown, and this week's focus will be on the labor market.
The US economy is experiencing softening growth, with the latest estimates showing a decline in second quarter growth compared to previous estimates, and consumer spending is crucial for economic growth, indicating a trend towards services in the near future.
U.S. economic activity remained stable but with slightly weaker growth, as labor market conditions eased and prices increased at a modest pace, according to a Federal Reserve report.
The US economy is expected to experience significant growth in the third quarter, despite a 0.7% decline in the leading economic index in September, with forecasts suggesting a GDP expansion of over 4%; however, analysts warn that the late stages of a business cycle may not provide clear indications of an imminent downturn.
The U.S. economy saw improvement at the start of the fourth quarter, with the service and manufacturing sectors experiencing growth, slowed inflation, and fresh hopes that interest rates have peaked, according to S&P surveys.
The U.S. economy has defied expectations by experiencing faster growth, with a projected GDP increase of 4% to 5% in the third quarter, but concerns remain about a potential recession in the near future due to factors such as limited income growth, cautious business behavior, and economic restraints.
The U.S. economy is experiencing rapid growth, with GDP predicted to exceed 4% in the third quarter, but there are concerns that this may be followed by a recession due to factors such as stagnant incomes, cautious businesses, and economic uncertainties.
The US economy likely grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending, rising wealth, and easing inflation. However, there are concerns that this robust growth may lead to further tightening of monetary policy to curb inflation. Economists expect growth to slow in the fourth quarter and next year.
The US economy is heading towards a recession that is likely to be milder than previous ones, as it is being "engineered" by the Federal Reserve and they have the ability to reverse the measures that slowed growth.
The U.S. economy is expected to have grown at its fastest pace in almost two years in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending and rebounding residential investment, defying fears of a recession and showcasing the economy's resilience; however, growth could slow in the fourth quarter due to factors such as auto strikes and the resumption of student loan repayments.
The U.S. economy is expected to have grown by more than 4% in the third quarter, thanks to increased spending by households, businesses, and the government, along with a strong job market and pandemic savings, though there are concerns that higher borrowing costs and various uncertainties could slow growth in the coming months.
The United States economy grew at a strong pace in the third quarter driven by consumer spending and a strong job market, despite predictions of a slowdown due to interest rate increases, while inflation remained relatively low.
The United States economy grew at a 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter due to strong consumer spending and a robust job market, but this pace is not expected to be sustained in the future.
The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, driven by robust consumer spending and resilient labor market, despite warnings of a recession; however, growth may slow in the fourth quarter due to factors such as auto worker strikes and student loan repayments.
The US economy experienced strong growth in the third quarter of 2023, fueled by consumer spending, but there are warning signs of a possible recession due to the impact of rate hikes on auto loans, credit cards, and student debt, as well as higher borrowing costs and the potential for deeper recession if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates.
The U.S. economy grew more than twice as fast in the third quarter, despite rising interest rates, with strong consumer spending and exports contributing to the growth, according to the latest GDP figures. However, Americans remain unhappy about the economy, likely due to lingering effects of high inflation.
The U.S. economy experienced faster-than-expected growth in the third quarter, driven primarily by increased consumer spending and inventory accumulation, but these factors are likely to be volatile in the coming quarters, and GDP growth is expected to return to normal levels in the fourth quarter and slow down further in 2024 due to the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and potential vulnerabilities in the economy, leading to a potential aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed.
The US economy expanded at a robust 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, driven by consumer spending, despite concerns about inflation and rising interest rates, but growth is expected to slow in the current quarter and beyond.
Against all odds, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of almost 5% last quarter, more than double the previous quarter, largely due to the power of low mortgage and loan rates, strong consumer balance sheets, increased productivity, and low employee turnover; however, there are concerns that the Federal Reserve hasn't done enough to combat inflation and that future revisions may change the story.
Consumer spending continued to drive economic growth in the third quarter of 2023, as gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a rate of 4.9%, beating expectations and putting recession fears to rest. However, concerns about high mortgage rates and limited housing supply could slow economic growth in the coming quarters.
Despite initial predictions of a recession, the U.S. economy has seen strong growth thanks to resilient consumer spending, but forecasters caution that it may not last as inflation remains higher than desired and consumer attitudes towards the economy remain negative.
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