US payroll growth in the year through March may have been weaker than originally reported, with estimates suggesting there were 500,000 fewer jobs than previously stated, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's decision on further rate hikes.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised down its tally of total employment in March 2023 by 306,000, indicating that there were about 300,000 fewer job gains during April 2022 to March 2023 than initially estimated, which could impact the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates.
Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, new claims for unemployment benefits in the US declined last week, indicating a resilient labor market and raising hopes of avoiding a recession.
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to a three-week low of 230,000, indicating a strong labor market and low job losses in the resilient U.S. economy.
The number of job openings in the US fell to 8.8 million at the end of July, indicating a slowing economy, with declines seen in professional and business services, healthcare, and state and local government sectors, while the information industry and transportation saw increases in job openings. Additionally, consumer confidence dipped in August as Americans grew more concerned about rising prices of gas and groceries, and home prices continued to increase in June.
The number of open jobs in the US dropped to its lowest level in over two years in July, signaling a slowdown in the labor market, with economists expecting a further decrease in labor demand and a possible response from the Federal Reserve.
Job creation in the US slowed in August, indicating that the strong economy could be starting to weaken under pressure from higher interest rates. Private employers added 177,000 jobs, well below the previous month's total of 371,000. Pay growth also slowed, suggesting more sustainable growth as the effects of the pandemic recede. Investors and economists remain uncertain about the future of US inflation and whether the economy can continue to grow without a significant slowdown.
U.S. hiring in August fell below expectations, signaling a cooling labor market due to higher interest rates, with companies adding 177,000 jobs compared to the predicted 195,000 gain, marking the worst month for job creation since March.
The US economy added 177,000 jobs in August, slightly below expectations, but indicating sustainable growth in pay and employment as the effects of the pandemic diminish.
The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits fell slightly last week as companies held on to employees in an economy that has withstood rising interest rates, with job openings remaining robust and unemployment benefits being collected by about 1.73 million people.
The August jobs report is highly anticipated as investors assess the health of the labor market amidst rising interest rates and inflation, with projections indicating an increase in hiring and a steady unemployment rate, but potential disruptions from ongoing strikes and bankruptcies could affect the data. The report is closely watched by the Federal Reserve for signs of labor market softening as they grapple with inflation, and while the labor market has remained tight, there are indications of a gradual slowdown. Job openings have decreased, along with resignations, pointing to a labor market that is cooling.
Job creation in the American labor market is expected to slow down in August, with the addition of approximately 170,000 jobs, reflecting a mild cooling of employment growth and wage growth, as well as the impact of higher interest rates on hiring; the recent strikes in the film industry, although not a significant direct employer, are likely to have some impact on the jobs numbers, particularly those related to on-set production and support roles.
The US added 187,000 jobs in August, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent, indicating a plateau in the labor market as the Federal Reserve considers another interest rate hike.
The week has been driven by macroeconomic data, but the threat of economic contraction is not currently imminent, with the US Ten-Year Note yielding around 4.11% overnight and the US Dollar Index trading around 103.5; the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its employment-related surveys for August today, with economists expecting non-farm job creation of around 170,000 and wage growth at 4.4% year over year.
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level since February, indicating a relatively tight job market despite recent signs of softening.
Initial jobless claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 3,000 to 220,000 in the latest week, but the four-week moving average fell to its lowest level since February, indicating that while the pace of hiring may be softening, there are very few layoffs.
American workers are facing a decline in median annual household income due to high inflation, with 17 states experiencing a decrease while only five saw an increase, according to data from the Census Bureau. The labor market remains challenging, with wages rising but not enough to keep up with inflation.
Central banks' efforts to combat inflation by raising interest rates have not led to mass job losses, as labor markets in various countries have cooperated by reducing open vacancies and trimming wage growth, suggesting a possible "soft landing" for the economy without significant casualties.
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