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Bitcoin Critic Willy Woo Warns Financialization Through Derivatives Enables Price Manipulation

  • Willy Woo is worried about the "financialization" of Bitcoin through derivatives that can manipulate price and liquidity.

  • Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio, measuring return vs risk, has declined since 2019 as derivatives emerged.

  • Bitcoin now trades similar to other macro assets like equities, bonds, gold.

  • Derivatives give large entities power to control Bitcoin's price.

  • Woo worries spot Bitcoin ETFs may come with catch of larger players influencing price.

dailyhodl.com
Relevant topic timeline:
Bitcoin price reaches a 2-month low, but crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts a positive change in the future due to market cycle theories and the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024, potentially reaching a price of $50-55K pre-halving.
Bitcoin remains on track for a massive bull cycle despite recent price decline, as indicated by broader indicators of its price patterns and the use of logarithmic growth curves. The 200-week moving average is seen as less significant as a key price support level for Bitcoin, and the analyst is also looking for an entry point for Ethereum.
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Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal believes that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a massive rally, based on the historical volatility of the cryptocurrency dropping below 20, a level that has preceded significant price increases in the past. Pal also notes that Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands, a volatility indicator, are the tightest they have ever been, further indicating the potential for a strong upward movement. Ethereum is also highlighted as trading within a bullish pattern despite recent market corrections.
Bitcoin's price is closely linked to stock prices and has seen significant growth, outperforming Amazon over a 12-year period, according to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone; however, he is skeptical about its move into the mainstream and warns of potential price declines when the masses invest. Other analysts speculate on Bitcoin's price, with predictions ranging from a dip to $23,500 to exceeding $30,000 by year-end. McGlone is known for identifying unique trends in Bitcoin, and JPMorgan suggests that the recent crypto asset selloffs are mostly over.
Bitcoin needs a significant catalyst, such as BlackRock and other major players marketing Bitcoin in their documents, to break out of its range-bound ways and experience sustained growth, according to Jeff Dorman, Chief Investment Officer at Arca.
Concerns arise that the struggling Chinese economy and volatility in the stock market may negatively impact Bitcoin's price and hinder its role as an alternative store of value in the face of a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that Bitcoin is likely to follow its historical bearish price action seen in pre-halving years and predicts that the cryptocurrency will remain within a range of $12,000 to $35,000 for the rest of 2023.
Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal believes that the financial industry's adoption of cryptocurrency, signaled by BlackRock's interest in a Bitcoin ETF, could open the door for trillions of dollars worth of money and derivatives to flow into the crypto space.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline as analysts predict further decreases ahead.
Bitcoin is predicted to reach $22,000 due to worsening investor sentiment and the impact of lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes claims the bull market began in March.
Big tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, may underperform in the coming years due to contracting market liquidity and the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies, according to crypto analyst Nicholas Merten.
Bitcoin is trading within a narrow range and could form a third consecutive Doji candlestick pattern, indicating a firm bear grip on the overall cryptocurrency market. However, some asset management firms are showing seriousness about implementing digital strategies, which could potentially impact Bitcoin's buying interest in altcoins.
The recent decline in the price of Bitcoin has raised concerns of a larger market downtrend, with Ethereum and Ripple also at risk of falling if Bitcoin weakens further.
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a short squeeze, leading to a rally in prices and a decline in open interest in futures and perpetual swaps trading. However, the lack of immediate bullish catalysts may cap the price recovery.
Bitcoin's recent 5% increase after testing the $25,000 support level doesn't necessarily indicate a victory for bulls, as Bitcoin has struggled to gain momentum despite significant catalysts, while bears have their own advantages like ongoing legal cases and financial troubles for Digital Currency Group. Derivatives metrics show a lack of demand for leveraged long positions, but options markets indicate equal odds for both bullish and bearish price movements.
Bitcoin's vulnerability to contracting global liquidity is highlighted by Bloomberg Intelligence's crypto market analyst Jamie Coutts, who suggests that the cryptocurrency will only turn bullish when global liquidity levels expand, warning that it is unlikely to rise until liquidity reverses and anticipating that institutional investors will only show significant demand for digital assets once liquidity rises.
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Bitcoin (BTC) prices are expected to remain bearish in the short term, but analysts anticipate a significant price increase after the 2024 halving event due to past performance and long-term valuation metrics.
Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten predicts a significant contraction in the total market capitalization of Bitcoin and other digital currencies, with Bitcoin potentially facing a plunge of over 43% and stabilizing between $15,000 and $16,000 as the market potentially finds a foothold around the $650 billion cap.
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Bitcoin could face difficulties in the long term due to tightening liquidity in the current macroeconomic environment, according to crypto analyst Nicholas Merten. Merten believes that Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by monetary policy and warns that if sentiment turns bearish, investors may start cashing out.
BitMEX, a leading crypto derivatives exchange, has seen significant growth in recent years and has launched innovative products such as perpetual swaps and social trading features like Guilds, while also introducing new contracts for the Shiba Inu ecosystem. The CEO, Stephan Lutz, is optimistic about the state of the Bitcoin market and expects increased institutional interest and adoption. The cryptocurrency market is expected to continue growing, with regulatory clarity playing a crucial role in shaping its future.
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach $750,000 to $1 million by 2026 due to a major financial crisis and endless cycles of central bank printing that lead to inflation, preventing natural market cycles of growth and correction. He believes that mounting debt, out of control inflation, and the insolvency of the US banking system will contribute to Bitcoin's rise. However, he also expects a significant drawdown in BTC price after each bull market.
Bitcoin bears could face an uphill battle as the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund and the upcoming halving event could lead to a significant price increase in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin, along with other major cryptocurrencies, has been impacted by the unstable U.S. fiscal situation and the potential collapse of the U.S. dollar, while Wall Street giants like BlackRock are poised to embrace bitcoin and revolutionize finance.