Foreign banks are lowering their China forecasts due to signs of distress in the property sector, with missed payments by developer Country Garden and trust company Zhongzhi Group contributing to rising concerns.
Thailand's economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter due to weak exports and slower investment, prompting the government to lower its 2023 growth forecast, while the central bank may not raise rates again amidst faltering economic recovery and low inflation.
The global economy may face slow growth due to record levels of government debt, geopolitical tensions, and weak productivity gains, which could hinder development in some countries even before it begins.
Forecasters have decreased their growth expectations for China due to deflation, rising youth unemployment, and a property-market crisis, with GDP predicted to rise by only 5.1% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.
The global economy is expected to slow down due to persistently high inflation, higher interest rates, China's slowing growth, and financial system stresses, according to Moody's Investors Service, although there may be pockets of resilience in markets like India and Indonesia.
Economists at Nomura and Morgan Stanley raise their growth forecast for India's fiscal 2024 after the economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the April-June quarter, while BofA Global Research cuts their estimates as quarterly growth falls below their forecast.
The prospect of a prolonged economic slump in China poses a serious threat to global growth, potentially changing fundamental aspects of the global economy, affecting debt markets and supply chains, and impacting emerging markets and the United States.
Forecasts for China's economic growth in 2023 and 2024 have been cut, potentially hindering the country's goal of becoming a "medium-developed country" by 2035 and surpassing the US as the world's No.1 economy.
China's economy is showing signs of slowing down, including a decrease in GDP growth rate, declining exports, deflationary consumer price index, high youth unemployment, a weakening yuan, and a decrease in new loans, which could have global implications.
Policymakers expect slower growth in China, potentially below 4%, as the country transitions to a consumption-driven economy, which could have a negative impact on the global economy and alleviate inflationary pressures.
Several international financial institutions have lowered their growth forecasts for China's economy below the government's target due to weak exports and a property crisis, posing a challenge despite Beijing's optimistic rhetoric.
China's economy is expected to grow less than previously anticipated due to struggles in the property market, leading economists to predict further downgrades and posing risks to both the domestic and global economy.
The European Commission has lowered its growth outlook for the Eurozone due to Germany's declining economy and the negative effects of energy policies, leading to potential political consequences and a possible economic downturn for the entire EU.
The global debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased for the second consecutive year, but the decline may be coming to an end as the post-COVID growth surge fades, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). China and the United States both have high debt-to-GDP ratios, and the IMF has called for strategies to reduce debt vulnerabilities in various sectors.
Britain's main manufacturing trade body has lowered its growth forecast for the sector due to a decline in factory output and economic uncertainty, with expectations of a 0.5% fall in output in 2023 and a growth of only 0.5% in 2024.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its growth forecast for developing Asia due to weakness in China's property sector and risks associated with El Niño, but still expects resilient growth driven by domestic consumption and investment.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.7%, while predicting inflation to remain above central bank targets despite interest rate hikes; fears of a slowdown in China and reduced growth in the US contribute to the pessimistic outlook.
The Asian Development Bank has lowered India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2023-24 to 6.3% due to the impact of extreme rainfall patterns on agriculture, while maintaining a growth projection of 6.7% for FY 2024-25, citing corporate profitability and strong bank credit as key factors. Additionally, the bank expects inflation to moderate and retail sales to be affected by food inflation, while India's external trade is expected to be affected by weak global demand. Despite these challenges, India's GDP growth outlook remains higher compared to its Asian peers.
ING Bank has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 4.8 percent due to increased inflation and potential interest rate hikes by the central bank, which may hamper GDP expansion in the second half of the year.
The growth forecasts for Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand have been downgraded due to declining exports to China and other factors, according to a survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research and Nikkei.
Summary: The U.S. stock market had a bad quarter, with all indexes falling, while the World Bank lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific, and China's demand for commodities continues to grow despite the downgrade. Additionally, a last-minute spending bill was passed to avoid a government shutdown, and this week's focus will be on the labor market.
China's growth is expected to slow down in 2024, with the World Bank attributing the gloomy outlook to a slowdown in China, weak indicators, stagnant house prices, increased household debt, and trade tensions with the US.
China's GDP forecast for 2024 has been lowered by the World Bank, while oil prices have had a positive impact on Russian stocks, and the US economy shows signs of recovery.
The World Bank predicts a growth rate of 5.1% for China's economy this year, but has downgraded its growth forecast for 2024 due to China's faltering post-COVID bounce, elevated debt, weakness in the property sector, and structural factors.
The World Bank has raised its forecasts for Sri Lanka's economy, expecting growth of 1.7% in 2024 and a smaller contraction of 3.8% this year, citing progress in reducing inflation and increased tourism revenue, but also cautioning about significant uncertainty and downside risks.
GDP growth in developing East Asia-Pacific is projected to be the worst in almost 50 years, with the region expected to grow by only 4.5 percent in 2024 due to persistent domestic difficulties in China and external factors.
The World Trade Organization has revised its forecast for global trade growth, halving its estimate due to rising interest rates and various economic challenges, with a particular impact on iron, steel, office equipment, textiles, and clothing. The slowdown in trade has raised concerns about the potential negative impact on living standards worldwide, particularly in poor countries.
Rising debt levels in seemingly healthy countries in Asia could lead to lower growth rates in the region, according to World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill. The increased borrowing by governments will limit credit available to private firms, resulting in a lack of investment and potential economic stagnation.
The U.S. economy is growing faster than expected, with the International Monetary Fund upgrading its growth forecast due to strong business investment, worker shortages, and government spending, while the global economy faces a mixed recovery with slower growth in the euro area and China.
China's economic growth forecast for next year has been downgraded by the World Bank due to persistent difficulties such as elevated debt, property weakness, and an aging population.
The IMF downgraded its growth forecasts for China, citing a weakening property sector and expects China's GDP to decline by as much as 1.6% relative to the baseline by 2025, while world GDP would decline by 0.6%.
China's economic growth forecast for next year has been downgraded by the World Bank due to the ongoing slowdown in the country's real estate market, which is expected to put pressure on global growth.
