### Summary
The US economy is forecasted to grow at a rate of 5.8%, causing concern for the Federal Reserve and those hoping interest rates will remain low.
### Facts
- 🔥 The US economy is predicted to grow by 5.8% according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- 💸 Recent strength in retail sales, auto sales, housing starts, and industrial production have contributed to this economic forecast.
### Summary
Thailand's economy grew slower than expected in Q2 2023, with tourism offsetting weaker exports due to global demand slowdown.
### Facts
- 💼 Thailand's economy expanded by 1.8% in Q2 2023, lower than the expected 3.1% growth.
- 📉 The government revised its GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 2.5% to 3.0%, down from the previous range of 2.7% to 3.7%.
- 📊 Q2 GDP rose by 0.2% on a quarterly basis, below the forecasted increase of 1.2%.
- 🌐 Thailand's economy has been supported by the tourism sector and private consumption growth amid weak global demand.
- 📉 Exports, a key driver of growth, have contracted since October 2022, primarily due to China's slowdown as its major trading partner.
The U.S. economy is forecasted to be growing rapidly, which is causing concern for the Federal Reserve and those hoping for low interest rates.
Thailand's economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in Q2 2023 due to weak exports and slower investment, prompting the government to downgrade its 2023 growth forecast to 2.5-3.0%, leading to speculations that the central bank may not raise rates again this year.
U.S. economic growth may be accelerating in the second half of 2023, defying earlier recession forecasts and leading to a repricing of long-term inflation and interest rate assumptions.
India's economy is experiencing consistent growth, and is predicted to become the fourth-largest economy within 18 months and the third-largest by 2028, driven by strong fundamentals and infrastructure development, while successfully reducing poverty; however, further reforms in areas such as patents, judicial, administrative, and process reforms are needed to boost economic growth.
Forecasters have decreased their growth expectations for China due to deflation, rising youth unemployment, and a property-market crisis, with GDP predicted to rise by only 5.1% in 2023 and 4.5% in 2024.
Credit rating agency Moody's has raised its 2023 U.S. economic growth forecast to 1.9% while cutting its estimate for China, citing mounting challenges for the latter, including weak business and consumer confidence and an aging working population.
Economists at Nomura and Morgan Stanley raise their growth forecast for India's fiscal 2024 after the economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the April-June quarter, while BofA Global Research cuts their estimates as quarterly growth falls below their forecast.
India's economic growth is estimated to be closer to 7.5%, with the country's first quarter growth at 7.8%, reflecting India's increasing stature in the world.
Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan have revised their full-year growth forecast for the UK's GDP due to a sharp contraction in the economy in July, with JPM now expecting 0.4% expansion and Goldman Sachs projecting 0.3% growth. Economists warn of the possibility of a recession as poor economic data continues to emerge, and GDP data indicates a weakening economy.
Sri Lanka's economy contracted 3.1% in the second quarter due to high inflation, a depreciating currency, and lower purchasing power, but experts predict a return to growth in the third quarter.
The Asian Development Bank has lowered its growth forecast for developing Asia due to high interest rates and the property crisis in China, posing risks to the region's economies.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.7%, while predicting inflation to remain above central bank targets despite interest rate hikes; fears of a slowdown in China and reduced growth in the US contribute to the pessimistic outlook.
The Danish central bank has raised its economic growth forecast through 2025, attributing the increase to the success of Danish drugmakers such as Novo Nordisk, although it also noted that growth may be heavily skewed by activities outside of Denmark, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry.
The Asian Development Bank has lowered India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2023-24 to 6.3% due to the impact of extreme rainfall patterns on agriculture, while maintaining a growth projection of 6.7% for FY 2024-25, citing corporate profitability and strong bank credit as key factors. Additionally, the bank expects inflation to moderate and retail sales to be affected by food inflation, while India's external trade is expected to be affected by weak global demand. Despite these challenges, India's GDP growth outlook remains higher compared to its Asian peers.
Former US treasury secretary Larry Summers has stated that India needs to achieve 8% economic growth in order to bring about significant improvements in the lives of its citizens, and has called for increased capital and authority for multilateral development banks to address challenges such as climate change and pandemics.
ING Bank has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 4.8 percent due to increased inflation and potential interest rate hikes by the central bank, which may hamper GDP expansion in the second half of the year.
The UK economy is expected to slow in 2023 and 2024 due to high interest rates, continued uncertainty, and low productivity, with GDP growth predicted to drop to 0.4% this year and 0.3% in 2024, according to economists at KPMG and the OECD.
S&P Global Ratings retains India's FY24 growth forecast at 6% due to the slowing world economy, subnormal monsoons, and delayed rate hikes, while also revising up the full fiscal retail inflation forecast to 5.5% on higher global oil prices.
India is expected to be the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year, but the forecasted growth is still below potential and risks are skewed to the downside, with a drier than normal monsoon season and sluggish private consumption acting as restraints; however, economists predict that the Reserve Bank of India will cut rates in the second quarter of next year.
The International Monetary Fund warns that Sri Lanka's economic recovery is not yet assured, as the country struggles to meet revenue targets and ensure growth despite taming inflation.
The World Bank has lowered its growth forecast for developing East Asia and the Pacific, citing a sluggish China, dampened trade, and high debt levels as factors contributing to the downgrade.
India's GDP growth is expected to moderate over the next few quarters, with a projected growth rate of around 7% in the second quarter and a slowdown to around 4.5-5% in the second half of the year. Factors such as the fluctuating monsoon, lower reservoir levels, cautious rural demand, and the impact of monetary tightening are likely to contribute to this moderation in growth. The writer predicts a full-year GDP expansion of 6%, with future growth depending on factors such as the outcome of the next election.
Global economic growth is expected to slightly increase in 2024, but the United Nations warns of a precarious situation and significant economic headwinds that may lead to a slowdown in the U.S. and a potential recession in the eurozone. The UN also highlights the escalating debt distress among frontier economies and calls for more oversight and regulation of food companies in the global trade system.
Central banks need to relax their 2% inflation targets and adopt a more pro-growth stance in order to prevent a global recession, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), which warns that the recent interest rate hikes have increased inequality and reduced investment without effectively combating inflation. Unctad forecasts a slowdown in global growth and emphasizes the need to address a looming debt crisis in poor countries that is exacerbated by higher interest rates in advanced economies. The report also calls for reducing inequality and prioritizing comprehensive social protection.
The World Trade Organization has revised its forecast for global trade growth, halving its estimate due to rising interest rates and various economic challenges, with a particular impact on iron, steel, office equipment, textiles, and clothing. The slowdown in trade has raised concerns about the potential negative impact on living standards worldwide, particularly in poor countries.
Global monetary policy is expected to transition from a period of low interest rates to rate cuts by the beginning of 2024, with only a few central banks anticipated to maintain steady rates, according to Bloomberg Economics. The forecast signals a turning point in the tightening cycle and suggests that the era of ultra-low rates will not return anytime soon. The report also highlights a slower pace of descent compared to the initial rate hikes that led to the higher borrowing costs.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office has revised Vietnam's 2023 growth forecast to 4.7%, but it falls below other organizations' projections.
Economists are adjusting their expectations for a rate cut in India to beyond the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, following a hawkish policy stance from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that emphasizes a 4% inflation target.
The IMF predicts that the world economy will grow at a slower pace of 2.9% in 2024 due to ongoing risks from higher interest rates, the war in Ukraine, and the eruption of violence in the Middle East, highlighting the need for tight monetary policy to combat inflation.
Economists warn that Britain's economy will grow less than expected next year due to the impact of higher interest rates and a weaker labor market, with GDP growth expected to be 0.7% in 2024. However, EY upgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%, citing an end to interest rate increases, falling inflation, and a return to real wage growth as factors that should prevent a recession. Inflation is expected to fall faster than previously forecast, reaching 4.5% by the end of the year before hitting the Bank of England's 2% target in the second half of 2024.
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded India's GDP growth forecast to 6.3% for 2023-24, citing positive factors such as monsoon rainfall, capital expenditure, new company registrations, and robust credit growth, leading to the possibility of growth surpassing 6.5% in Q2 FY24.
High inflation is expected to persist in the global economy next year, posing a risk of interest rates remaining higher for longer than anticipated, according to a Reuters poll of economists. While some central banks were initially predicted to start cutting rates by mid-2024, the survey suggests that a growing number of economists are now pushing the more likely date into the second half of next year.
High inflation is expected to persist in the global economy next year, posing a higher risk than initially forecasted and indicating that interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Most central banks are delaying interest rate cuts until the second half of 2024, with inflation still rising faster than desired. The poll also reveals downgraded growth forecasts and upgraded inflation predictions for a majority of the surveyed economies. The U.S. economy stands out with unexpected strong growth, while some economists suggest that current policy may not be restrictive enough.
