### Summary
According to a report from SBI Research, the per capita income of Indians is expected to increase from Rs 2 lakh in FY23 to Rs 14.9 lakh in FY47, coinciding with India's 100 years of Independence. The report also highlights the growth in the number of taxpayers and the increase in income levels for the middle class.
### Facts
- 💰 The per capita income of Indians is projected to increase from Rs 2 lakh in FY23 to Rs 14.9 lakh in FY47.
- 📈 37% of the total formal labor force in India currently pays taxes.
- 💸 64% of income tax returns in India are below Rs 5 lakh and are exempt from paying taxes.
- 📊 The number of taxpayers in India has risen from 30 million to close to 68 million, and could reach 85-90 million with pending late returns.
- 💵 13.6% of taxpayers have moved into higher-income brackets.
- 💼 The growth in income levels represents a significant progression for India, which has become the fifth-largest economy in terms of GDP.
- 💭 The income growth should not be criticized in terms of inflation, as even after adjusting for inflation, income has more than doubled in the last 10 years.
- 📉 The Gini Coefficient Index shows that the income gap between rich and poor states in India is narrowing, indicating improved economic benefits for all states.
### Source
- [CNN News18](https://www.news18.com/news/business/income-of-indian-middle-class-expected-to-increase-to-rs-15-lakh-by-2047-sbi-research-5522439.html)
### Summary
Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated that despite short-term inflation hiccups, India has achieved nearly a decade of controlled inflation, offering the lowest rates in the country's history.
### Facts
- 💰 Headline retail inflation reached a 15-month high of 7.44% in July, surpassing economists' expectations of 6.6%.
- 🌽 Vegetable prices and sustained cost pressures in staples like cereals and pulses contributed to the high Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July.
- 🍅 The government implemented various measures to curb food price rise, including distribution of discounted tomatoes and conducting e-auctions for rice and wheat.
- 💼 Commerce Minister Goyal expressed confidence in India's economy, highlighting comfortable foreign exchange reserves and high growth.
- 🌍 With a young demographic dividend, India aims to become a $35-trillion economy and one of the world's top three economies in the next 30 years.
- 📈 India is currently the fastest-growing economy and is projected to achieve a GDP growth of 6.5% for the current financial year.
- 🇮🇳 The current government inherited challenges such as unpaid oil bond debt, high interest costs, and faltering exports from the previous government.
- 🌱 Goyal emphasized the importance of sustainable and inclusive growth alongside value creation for shareholders.
### Summary
India's economy is growing rapidly and is projected to become the third largest economy by 2031. However, there is a significant disparity in per capita income among states, with some states significantly behind the national average.
### Facts
- India is the fastest-growing large economy globally and is driving cost competitiveness.
- India's middle class is estimated to reach 61% of the population with an average income of Rs 20 lakh.
- By 2031, India's GDP is expected to cross the $10 trillion mark.
- Per capita income in India has increased from Rs 90,688 in 2013 to Rs 196,983 in April 2023.
- Telangana, Karnataka, and Haryana have the highest per capita income, while Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand have the lowest.
- The per capita income of Bihar is 17% of Telangana and one-fourth of the national average.
- There is a correlation between political stability and economic performance.
- India's per capita income ranks 141st out of 191 countries.
- India needs to shift its population from low-productivity sectors like agriculture to high-income domains and increase female workforce participation.
- The necessary interventions include investment in human infrastructure, agricultural advancements, climate resilience, land and labor reforms, planned urbanization, and more.
### Summary
Global governments and central banks have been printing money to fund government spending, leading to high government debt and increased risk of inflation. The recent downgrade of US sovereign ratings by Fitch highlights the consequences of excessive money printing.
### Facts
- 📈 Developed market economies are facing high government debt to GDP ratios and increasing interest rates.
- 📊 Large economies like the US, UK, France, Japan, and China have seen a reckless increase in government debt since 2007.
- 💵 Private sector leverage has been on the mend in some countries, except for China and France.
- 🏛️ The burden of debt has shifted from the private to the public sector due to Covid-era stimulus measures.
- 💸 The bad effects of money printing, warned by economist Milton Friedman, are starting to manifest as bond vigilantes protest against expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.
- 📉 Bond yields in the US and Europe are at levels not seen in more than a decade, constraining government spending.
- 🌍 The challenges faced by developed economies in dealing with their debt burden could have spill-over effects on India and other countries.
### So what?
- 💸 Higher yields will limit government spending, leading to tough choices and posing challenges to economic growth.
- ⚠️ India must be cautious of collateral damage caused by the debt burdens of developed economies, even though its public and private debt appear to be in good shape.
### Summary
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal believes that India will become the engine of global growth, with its economy projected to reach $35 trillion by 2047. India's young population and vibrant democracy are key factors contributing to its sustainable and inclusive growth.
### Facts
- India is expected to become the growth engine of the world, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal.
- The country's GDP is projected to reach $35 trillion by 2047, offering significant business opportunities.
- With a population of 1.4 billion people, India recently surpassed China as the world's most populous country.
- India's young population, with over 600 million people aged between 18 and 35, is expected to continue for at least the next few decades.
- India is estimated to provide 24.3% of the incremental global workforce over the next decade.
- The country's digital economy has grown rapidly, with initiatives like the Aadhaar program and the Skill India program promoting digital literacy and skills development.
- India aims to create sustainable and inclusive growth, focusing on value creation and becoming a matter of pride and envy.
🇮🇳💼🌍📈🌱
The Federal Reserve's long-held belief that the US economy had reached its long-term growth potential of 1.8% is being challenged as strong growth continues, driven by unexpected labor force growth, manufacturing construction, and potential improvements in productivity, prompting a larger conversation about the country's economic potential.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman emphasized that controlling inflation is the government's priority for sustained economic growth, expressing the need to manage supply side factors along with interest rates, and mentioned that India's GDP numbers for the first quarter are expected to be positive.
India aims to become a $35 trillion economy in 25 years, with a plan to add $30 trillion to its economy in the coming years, according to Union Minister Piyush Goyal.
India's economy is experiencing consistent growth, and is predicted to become the fourth-largest economy within 18 months and the third-largest by 2028, driven by strong fundamentals and infrastructure development, while successfully reducing poverty; however, further reforms in areas such as patents, judicial, administrative, and process reforms are needed to boost economic growth.
India's real estate sector is projected to reach $5.8 trillion by 2047, contributing 15.5% to the GDP, driven by significant expansion in the economy and increased private equity investments, according to a report by Knight Frank and Naredeco.
India's economy is facing challenges as GDP growth declines, investment demand weakens, inflation rises, and job creation remains a major concern, highlighting the need for a comprehensive economic plan to address these issues.
India's GDP grew at a rate of 7.8% in the April-June period, fueled by a strong services sector and government infrastructure spending.
India's recent achievements and economic growth have positioned it as a rising global power, but the country must address its challenges in poverty, job creation, education, and inequality in order to fully realize its potential.
The economist Tharman Shanmugaratnam highlights India's challenges in achieving sustained economic growth, addressing social and economic disparities, and integrating with China and ASEAN. He emphasizes the need for India to focus on education, increase exports, reform employment and land acquisition laws, and take advantage of its untapped potential.
India's GDP growth reached a four-quarter high of 7.8% in Q1FY24, with private consumption and services picking up pace, but challenges lie ahead with the sustainability of services growth and concerns over the monsoon and agriculture sector.
India's economic rise is seen as inevitable due to factors such as a consumer boom, context-appropriate innovation, a green transition, a demographic dividend, access to finance, major infrastructure upgrades, policy reforms, geopolitical positioning, and a diaspora dividend, although challenges such as unbalanced growth, unrealized demographic potential, and unrealized ease-of-business and innovation potential still need to be addressed.
Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has announced that the country is targeting an annual economic growth rate of at least 5% until 2025, lower than the previous target, due to the impact of a global slowdown, with plans to focus on high-value industries and increase private investments.
India's economic growth is estimated to be closer to 7.5%, with the country's first quarter growth at 7.8%, reflecting India's increasing stature in the world.
China's economy has entered deflation territory and the debt crisis has worsened, while India's economy is thriving with GDP growth expected to exceed 7% and unemployment rates at a 12-year low; it is predicted that India will surpass China in per capita income by 2044 due to factors such as female education expansion, labor force growth, and higher total factor productivity growth.
India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, is hopeful that the country can achieve its target of 10.5% nominal economic growth this fiscal year, and is prioritizing growth over taxing diesel vehicles.
India's goal of achieving 6.5% real GDP growth in FY24 may be complicated by lower-than-anticipated nominal growth, potentially delaying the country's aim of becoming a $5 trillion economy by another year.
The Asian Development Bank has lowered India's GDP growth forecast for FY 2023-24 to 6.3% due to the impact of extreme rainfall patterns on agriculture, while maintaining a growth projection of 6.7% for FY 2024-25, citing corporate profitability and strong bank credit as key factors. Additionally, the bank expects inflation to moderate and retail sales to be affected by food inflation, while India's external trade is expected to be affected by weak global demand. Despite these challenges, India's GDP growth outlook remains higher compared to its Asian peers.
Former US treasury secretary Larry Summers has stated that India needs to achieve 8% economic growth in order to bring about significant improvements in the lives of its citizens, and has called for increased capital and authority for multilateral development banks to address challenges such as climate change and pandemics.
India is expected to be the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year, but the forecasted growth is still below potential and risks are skewed to the downside, with a drier than normal monsoon season and sluggish private consumption acting as restraints; however, economists predict that the Reserve Bank of India will cut rates in the second quarter of next year.
India's GDP growth is expected to moderate over the next few quarters, with a projected growth rate of around 7% in the second quarter and a slowdown to around 4.5-5% in the second half of the year. Factors such as the fluctuating monsoon, lower reservoir levels, cautious rural demand, and the impact of monetary tightening are likely to contribute to this moderation in growth. The writer predicts a full-year GDP expansion of 6%, with future growth depending on factors such as the outcome of the next election.
Indian households are saving less than they have in 50 years, with net household savings declining to 5.1% of GDP in 2022-23, which poses a problem for India's long-term growth strategy that relies on debt-fueled household consumption and government investment.
India needs to increase women's participation in the workforce to 50% to achieve its goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy, according to the World Bank India director, Auguste Tano Kouamé. Increasing female labor force participation alone could add 1 percentage point to India's GDP growth.
China's economic slowdown, driven by a real estate crisis and prolonged Covid-19 measures, is raising doubts about its status as the largest economy in the world by 2030, while India is emerging as a promising economic powerhouse and attracting significant investments.
The US economy is predicted to slow down by mid next year, which will have a negative impact on global GDP, according to Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist for Axis Bank. Mishra also mentioned that China will grow slowly but not collapse, while India will be affected through various pathways such as a decline in services growth, goods demand, dumping of products, and financial market volatility. However, he believes that India's trajectory looks good in the next 5-7 years.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects consumer price index (CPI) inflation to ease below 4 percent in fiscal 2024-25 if there are no further shocks and a normal monsoon, with the central bank rethinking rate cuts only if CPI inflation remains at or below 4 percent on a durable basis.
Economists are adjusting their expectations for a rate cut in India to beyond the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, following a hawkish policy stance from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that emphasizes a 4% inflation target.
The Indian central government is likely to reduce its investment spending in the future to curb the budget deficit, creating an opportunity for the private sector to step in and drive investment growth, according to Goldman Sachs.
India's economy needs to grow at a rate of 8% per year and focus on investment in traditional sectors in order to surpass China as the largest contributor to the global economy, according to Barclays.
