### Summary
India's economy is growing rapidly and is projected to become the third largest economy by 2031. However, there is a significant disparity in per capita income among states, with some states significantly behind the national average.
### Facts
- India is the fastest-growing large economy globally and is driving cost competitiveness.
- India's middle class is estimated to reach 61% of the population with an average income of Rs 20 lakh.
- By 2031, India's GDP is expected to cross the $10 trillion mark.
- Per capita income in India has increased from Rs 90,688 in 2013 to Rs 196,983 in April 2023.
- Telangana, Karnataka, and Haryana have the highest per capita income, while Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand have the lowest.
- The per capita income of Bihar is 17% of Telangana and one-fourth of the national average.
- There is a correlation between political stability and economic performance.
- India's per capita income ranks 141st out of 191 countries.
- India needs to shift its population from low-productivity sectors like agriculture to high-income domains and increase female workforce participation.
- The necessary interventions include investment in human infrastructure, agricultural advancements, climate resilience, land and labor reforms, planned urbanization, and more.
### Summary
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal believes that India will become the engine of global growth, with its economy projected to reach $35 trillion by 2047. India's young population and vibrant democracy are key factors contributing to its sustainable and inclusive growth.
### Facts
- India is expected to become the growth engine of the world, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal.
- The country's GDP is projected to reach $35 trillion by 2047, offering significant business opportunities.
- With a population of 1.4 billion people, India recently surpassed China as the world's most populous country.
- India's young population, with over 600 million people aged between 18 and 35, is expected to continue for at least the next few decades.
- India is estimated to provide 24.3% of the incremental global workforce over the next decade.
- The country's digital economy has grown rapidly, with initiatives like the Aadhaar program and the Skill India program promoting digital literacy and skills development.
- India aims to create sustainable and inclusive growth, focusing on value creation and becoming a matter of pride and envy.
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India's path to prosperity depends on the growth of all states, with some states performing better than others in terms of per capita income and economic outcomes, highlighting the need for policy interventions to address disparities and promote inclusive growth.
India's economic growth likely accelerated to 7.7% in the April-June quarter, driven by strong service sector growth, high demand, and increased government capital expenditure, according to a Reuters poll.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman emphasized that controlling inflation is the government's priority for sustained economic growth, expressing the need to manage supply side factors along with interest rates, and mentioned that India's GDP numbers for the first quarter are expected to be positive.
India's economy is experiencing consistent growth, and is predicted to become the fourth-largest economy within 18 months and the third-largest by 2028, driven by strong fundamentals and infrastructure development, while successfully reducing poverty; however, further reforms in areas such as patents, judicial, administrative, and process reforms are needed to boost economic growth.
India has seen an increase in its tariffs and trade policy measures in recent years, reversing the trend towards liberalization and increasing trade restrictions, which is a global phenomenon as many countries are adopting industrial policies to promote domestic production and exports; however, the effectiveness of these policies and their impact on economic growth and job creation remain to be seen.
The economist Tharman Shanmugaratnam highlights India's challenges in achieving sustained economic growth, addressing social and economic disparities, and integrating with China and ASEAN. He emphasizes the need for India to focus on education, increase exports, reform employment and land acquisition laws, and take advantage of its untapped potential.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed India's achievements during its presidency of the G20, highlighting its human-centric model of development and its response to the pandemic, which has gained recognition and appreciation from the international community; he also emphasized the importance of including the Global South and Africa in global affairs and addressing their needs. Additionally, Modi noted India's efforts in promoting renewable energy and the democratization of technology, while acknowledging the challenges of cybercrime and the need for global cooperation. He expressed confidence in India's future economic growth and its potential to become one of the top three economies in the world by 2030 and a developed country by 2047.
India's GDP growth reached a four-quarter high of 7.8% in Q1FY24, with private consumption and services picking up pace, but challenges lie ahead with the sustainability of services growth and concerns over the monsoon and agriculture sector.
India's economic rise is seen as inevitable due to factors such as a consumer boom, context-appropriate innovation, a green transition, a demographic dividend, access to finance, major infrastructure upgrades, policy reforms, geopolitical positioning, and a diaspora dividend, although challenges such as unbalanced growth, unrealized demographic potential, and unrealized ease-of-business and innovation potential still need to be addressed.
Indonesia's Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, expressed optimism about the country's economic growth, attributing it to domestic demand and successful fiscal deficit containment.
Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has announced that the country is targeting an annual economic growth rate of at least 5% until 2025, lower than the previous target, due to the impact of a global slowdown, with plans to focus on high-value industries and increase private investments.
India's industrial output rose 5.7% in July, its fastest pace in five months, driven by strong mining and electricity activity, but high inflation and slowing pent-up demand may hinder future growth.
India's economic growth is estimated to be closer to 7.5%, with the country's first quarter growth at 7.8%, reflecting India's increasing stature in the world.
India's goal of becoming a $5 trillion economy may be challenged as economists predict that nominal GDP growth may fall below the budgeted estimate of 10.5% for the current fiscal year, primarily due to subdued wholesale inflation.
India's goal of achieving 6.5% real GDP growth in FY24 may be complicated by lower-than-anticipated nominal growth, potentially delaying the country's aim of becoming a $5 trillion economy by another year.
Former US treasury secretary Larry Summers has stated that India needs to achieve 8% economic growth in order to bring about significant improvements in the lives of its citizens, and has called for increased capital and authority for multilateral development banks to address challenges such as climate change and pandemics.
India is expected to be the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year, but the forecasted growth is still below potential and risks are skewed to the downside, with a drier than normal monsoon season and sluggish private consumption acting as restraints; however, economists predict that the Reserve Bank of India will cut rates in the second quarter of next year.
India's GDP growth is expected to moderate over the next few quarters, with a projected growth rate of around 7% in the second quarter and a slowdown to around 4.5-5% in the second half of the year. Factors such as the fluctuating monsoon, lower reservoir levels, cautious rural demand, and the impact of monetary tightening are likely to contribute to this moderation in growth. The writer predicts a full-year GDP expansion of 6%, with future growth depending on factors such as the outcome of the next election.
India's economy needs to grow at a rate of 8% per year and focus on investment in traditional sectors in order to surpass China as the largest contributor to the global economy, according to Barclays.
