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Bank of Canada seen holding rates steady after economy shrank in Q2

  • Bank of Canada expected to hold interest rates steady at 5% after economy shrank in Q2
  • Inflation remains high at 3.3% in July with core measures above 3%
  • GDP declined 0.2% in Q2, missing BoC's forecast of 1.5% growth
  • Money markets trimmed bets on a rate hike, now see less than 7% chance
  • Most economists expect no change to rates though some see more hikes ahead
reuters.com
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Despite a slight increase in Canada's inflation rate last month, the Bank of Canada remains determined to bring it down to 2%, with the possibility of another rate hike being considered in September. However, some economists believe that the positive overall figures may allow the Bank to pause on rate increases without a significant negative impact.
Canadian mortgage borrowers are increasingly opting for fixed interest terms, with a record 95% of mortgage originations in June being fixed rate, reflecting a desire to avoid short-term interest rate hikes while not missing out on potential rate cuts in the future.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years, but experts expect the market to react less dramatically than in the past.
The Bank of Canada may shift its focus from the output gap to labor market indicators, such as unemployment and wages, in order to make inflation forecasts and guide its interest rate decisions, according to a report by CIBC economists. The report suggests that the labor market has become a more reliable indicator of excess demand or supply, and forecasts that if the job market outlook suggests it's not necessary, there may be no more rate hikes this year and rate cuts in early 2024.
Turkey's central bank raised interest rates to 25 percent, the highest level since 2004, in an effort to curb inflation and stabilize the country's economy.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain high interest rates for as long as necessary to combat persistent inflation, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde, amid efforts to manage a stagnating economy; however, the ECB is also considering longer-term economic changes that may contribute to sustained inflation pressures.
Canada's upcoming gross domestic product (GDP) reading is expected to be closely watched by the Bank of Canada (BoC) ahead of its September interest rate decision, with economists predicting a slowdown in the second quarter that could lead to a pause in interest rate hikes despite higher-than-expected inflation. The impact of recent wildfires and a dock workers strike is also expected to affect the data.
Canada's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, raising concerns of a possible recession, as declines in housing investment and slower exports and household spending impacted growth. This is likely to lead the central bank to hold interest rates steady.
The Bank of Canada is set to issue an interest rate update, with experts predicting a potential rate hike that could impact mortgage payments and home values.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 4.10% as inflation slows, but economists anticipate a final hike in the next quarter.
The Bank of Israel is expected to maintain its interest rate at 4.75% due to decreasing inflation and indications of modest economic growth, despite concerns about the slowdown in the hi-tech industry and reduced demand for workers; meanwhile, interest rates in Israel are influenced by expectations of lower rates in the United States and the recent drop in the shekel's value.
The Bank of Canada has decided to keep its key overnight interest rate at 5% due to weaker economic growth, but stated that it may raise borrowing costs if inflationary pressures persist.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem suggests that interest rates may not be high enough to bring inflation back down to target, emphasizing the need for further restrictive monetary policy to restore price stability.
Canada added 40,000 jobs in August, surpassing economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%. This positive job growth suggests that the economy is not completely stalled, but the Bank of Canada is not expected to raise interest rates in the near future.
The Canadian dollar strengthened against the US dollar as stronger-than-expected jobs data raised the possibility of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada.
The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates on September 14, although nearly half of economists anticipate one more increase this year in an effort to reduce inflation.
Investors now have the opportunity to earn high interest rates on their cash deposits, with some potentially earning as much as 5% or more, marking the highest rates in 15 years, prompting financial advisors to urge savers to shop around for the best rates and avoid holding too much cash.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about one percentage point next year as economic growth slows and unemployment rises, according to chief economists at major North American banks.
Pakistan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates to address inflation and bolster foreign exchange reserves, following a series of rate hikes earlier this year in response to economic and political crises.
The State Bank of Pakistan has announced that it will maintain its key policy rate at 22%, citing a continuing declining trend in inflation, improved agricultural outlook, and recent administrative and regulatory measures to address supply constraints and illegal activity. The bank hopes that inflation will subsequently decline in October.
The Russian central bank has raised its key interest rate to 13% in response to inflationary pressures and a weak rouble, and warns that rates will remain high for a considerable period of time, with further rate increases possible in the future.
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 5.5%, potentially marking the end of its tightening cycle, as concerns about a cooling economy grow among policymakers.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold off on raising interest rates, but consumers are still feeling the impact of previous hikes, with credit card rates topping 20%, mortgage rates above 7%, and auto loan rates exceeding 7%.
Canada's annual inflation rate in August rose to 4.0% due to higher gasoline prices, potentially leading to further interest rate hikes by the central bank.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady and signal that it is done raising rates for this economic cycle, as the bond market indicates that inflation trends are moving in the right direction.
Financial uncertainty has become the new normal for many Canadians as inflation erodes savings, according to a survey by RBC, while the US Federal Reserve maintains interest rates but projects a further rate increase by the end of the year and a tighter monetary policy through 2024, and the family of a North Carolina man sues Google for negligence after he drove off a collapsed bridge while following Google Maps directions.
The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged means that savers and individuals with surplus cash have the opportunity to earn a higher return on their money than in recent years, with online banks offering high-yield savings accounts that can provide a return above inflation.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but left room for potential rate hikes, as they see progress in fighting inflation and aim to bring it down to the target level of 2 percent; however, officials projected a higher growth rate of 2.1 percent for this year and suggested that core inflation will hit 3.7 percent this year before falling in 2024 and reaching the target range by 2026.
The Swiss National Bank keeps interest rates unchanged at 1.75% and hints that further tightening may be necessary to ensure price stability, while also warning of a possible global economic slowdown and addressing the risk of energy shortage in Europe.
Turkey's central bank raises interest rates to 30% as it seeks to combat high inflation and stabilize the weakening lira.
The Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates will remain "higher for longer," potentially for at least three more years, in order to sustain economic growth and combat inflation.
Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, have pledged to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to combat inflation and achieve global economic stability, despite concerns about the strength of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions.