### Summary
The majority of economists believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again and may even cut them by the end of March, due to positive economic indicators and low unemployment.
### Facts
- 90% of economists polled expect the Fed to keep interest rates in the 5.25-5.50% range at its September meeting.
- Roughly 80% of economists expect no further interest rate increases this year.
- The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is not expected to reach its 2% target until at least 2025.
- Confidence in the economy's ability to avoid a major downturn has led to expectations that interest rates will remain higher for a longer period, causing fluctuations in bond markets.
- 23 economists predict one more rate increase this year, while two expect two more increases to 5.75-6.00%.
- A majority of 95 economists expect rates to decrease at least once by mid-2024, but there is no agreement on the timing of the first cut.
- Nearly three-quarters of economists believe that shelter costs, a main driver of inflation, will decrease in the coming months.
- The real interest rate may be adjusted by the Fed based on inflation, which could prompt a rate reduction next year rather than a stimulus.
Source: [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/futures-touch-fifers-hopes-us-fed-rate-cut-rise-boosted-2019-08-23/)
China's central bank has cut a key interest rate in an attempt to counter the post-Covid growth slowdown, as activity has been dragged down by uncertainty in the labor market, global economic sluggishness, weakening demand for Chinese goods, and financial troubles in the real estate sector.
The majority of economists polled by Reuters predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again, and they expect the central bank to wait until at least the end of March before cutting them, as the probability of a recession within a year falls to its lowest level since September 2022.
The market anticipates a 100 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024, with US 10-year yields falling and Fed funds futures indicating a lower path ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, as US services PMI disappoints and US retailer Foot Locker warns on the consumer.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal in his upcoming speech that the Fed plans to maintain its benchmark interest rate at a peak level for a longer period than anticipated, suggesting that any rate cuts are unlikely until well into next year, as the central bank aims to further slow borrowing and spending to reduce inflation.
The former president of the Boston Fed suggests that the Federal Reserve can stop raising interest rates if the labor market and economic growth continue to slow at the current pace.
BlackRock's Rick Rieder suggests that the Federal Reserve can now end its inflation fight as the labor market in the US is cooling down after gaining 26 million jobs in the past three years.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by about one percentage point next year as economic growth slows and unemployment rises, according to chief economists at major North American banks.
The stock market is currently stagnant and the key question is when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates, as the market struggles when the Fed tightens monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, but market participants will be closely watching for any hints regarding future rate cuts.
Following the European Central Bank's record high interest rate hike to 4%, there is speculation about how long rates will remain at this level, with analysts predicting a 12-month pause before any cuts are made, while also considering the impact of rising oil prices on inflation expectations in Europe and the US. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in September, but there are divided opinions on whether another hike will be delivered this year, with markets anticipating rate cuts in 2024. Similarly, the Bank of England is anticipated to make one final hike in September as it assesses inflation and economic indicators.
High mortgage rates have frozen the US housing market, but experts predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the next 12 to 18 months, potentially leading to a decline in mortgage rates.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a pause on interest rate hikes due to positive economic indicators and the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the economy, but future decisions will be influenced by factors such as the resumption of student loan payments and a potential government shutdown.
Wall Street fears that the Federal Reserve will push out the timing for rate cuts next year, sparking concerns of a hawkish pause and increasing selling pressure, despite a trend of rapid disinflation and the potential for a higher neutral interest rate.
The Federal Reserve has revised its interest rate forecast, planning for fewer rate cuts next year than previously anticipated, which may not be favorable for borrowers.
The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged but projects one more rate hike this year, causing stock markets to slump and Treasury yields to rise; Instacart shares drop, Klaviyo shares rise, and the Writers Guild of America hopes to end a five-month-long strike in Hollywood; CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warns of the "problematic" impact of the recent oil spike on the economy, potentially leading to another interest rate hike by the end of the year; despite concerns, the Fed highlights strong economic growth forecasts and suggests the possibility of the US economy continuing to run hotter than anticipated.
Markets on Wall Street are expected to open with losses after the Federal Reserve suggests it may not cut interest rates next year by as much as previously thought, leading to a decline in futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average; uncertainty surrounding inflationary indicators and high rates is a major concern for traders moving forward.
The Federal Reserve's revision to its monetary policy, reducing future rate cuts and indicating a commitment to tackling inflation, caused shockwaves in the financial markets, leading to a decline in gold prices.
The Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, stated that despite current macroeconomic challenges, the central bank will continue with its rate increases and not consider cutting rates due to the stimulus money provided by Congress.
The Federal Reserve's interest-rate forecast is more hawkish than anticipated, with policymakers expecting to hold their key rate a half-percent higher through 2024 and cutting the federal funds rate by just one quarter-point over the next 15 months due to the economy's recent unexpected strength, despite doubts from Wall Street and rising Treasury yields.
Financial markets are betting on more rate cuts next year than what Federal Reserve policymakers believe is likely, which may complicate the Fed's efforts to control inflation.
J.P. Morgan strategists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates until the third quarter of next year due to a strong economy and continued inflation, with implications for inflation, earnings, and equity valuations as well as potential impact from a government shutdown.
The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates as inflation resurfaces, according to Wall Street investor Caitlin Long, with big corporations benefiting while other sectors of the US economy are already in recession.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates as the economy slows down, but warns of continuing spillover effects and expects bond yields to rise further.
The chaos in Washington and uncertainty surrounding a possible government shutdown could make it less likely for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this year, as the economy and inflation appear to be cooling off.
The Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates again this year due to an already uncertain political climate in Washington, as well as a cooling economy, slowing inflation, and potential negative impacts from high interest rates and a government shutdown.
Surging interest rates pose challenges for the US economy and threaten the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation without causing a deep recession, as borrowing costs rise for mortgages, auto loans, and credit card debt, and other factors such as higher gas prices, student loan payments, autoworker strikes, and the risk of a government shutdown loom large, potentially reducing consumer spending and slowing economic growth.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may cut interest rates in the second half of 2024, according to major bank economists, but the interest rate futures market does not anticipate any rate cuts until March 2025; historical data suggests that rate cut cycles following periods of high inflation have led to varying impacts on housing prices and unemployment, and it remains to be seen how the current economic conditions will affect these indicators.
Global monetary policy is expected to transition from a period of low interest rates to rate cuts by the beginning of 2024, with only a few central banks anticipated to maintain steady rates, according to Bloomberg Economics. The forecast signals a turning point in the tightening cycle and suggests that the era of ultra-low rates will not return anytime soon. The report also highlights a slower pace of descent compared to the initial rate hikes that led to the higher borrowing costs.
Wall Street and policymakers at the Federal Reserve are optimistic that the rise in long-term Treasury yields could put an end to historic interest rate hikes meant to curb inflation, with financial markets now seeing a nearly 90% chance that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its next policy meeting on October 31 through November 1.
Markets are increasingly expecting a Fed pause in interest rate hikes, with the chance of a rate increase in November dropping to 15.8%, down from 23.1% a week ago and 38.4% a month ago, as volatile Treasury yields play a major role in shaping market expectations.
The Federal Reserve will continue with its 'higher-for-longer' interest rate narrative unless there are signs of a slowdown in the consumer sector.
Interest rates are a major focus in financial markets as rising rates have far-reaching consequences, making future projections less valuable and hindering investments, and there is still uncertainty about the full impact of rate hikes on the economy, potentially delaying the start of a recession until mid-2024.
The Federal Reserve is expected to reach its 2% inflation target rate by early 2025 and is unlikely to raise interest rates in the near future, according to Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. Fratantoni also predicts that the 10-year treasury rate will drop below 4% by the end of the year, leading to a decrease in mortgage rates over the next two years. The U.S. government's fiscal policy and debt limit impasse could continue to impact mortgage rates.
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by the end of 2024, but the decline will be mild and likely to occur in the second half of the year, with the possibility of one more rate increase in 2023, according to policymakers and markets. The forecast for rate cuts is not as significant as the rate increases seen in previous years, with a projected decline of 1% in the Fed funds rate by the end of 2024. The Fed's own projections indicate short-term rates around 5% at the end of 2024, suggesting a slower trajectory for rate declines compared to market expectations. The Fed has scheduled eight meetings in 2024 to set the Fed funds rate, with the potential for rate cuts starting in June or later. The decision to lower rates may not happen until the summer of 2024, as the Fed has emphasized that it plans to cut rates gradually rather than making immediate cuts. The outlook for rates is based on the expectation that inflation will take more time to reach the Fed's target of 2% and that unemployment will increase slightly. The main risk to the rate outlook is a more severe recession in 2024, but the Fed's current focus is on addressing inflation. Recent data for 2023 has been positive, indicating that the economy may have avoided a recession. Overall, while interest rates are expected to decline in 2024, the decrease will be modest and delayed.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged on November 1 and may delay rate cuts until the second half of next year, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
