Despite a slight increase in Canada's inflation rate last month, the Bank of Canada remains determined to bring it down to 2%, with the possibility of another rate hike being considered in September. However, some economists believe that the positive overall figures may allow the Bank to pause on rate increases without a significant negative impact.
The Bank of Canada may shift its focus from the output gap to labor market indicators, such as unemployment and wages, in order to make inflation forecasts and guide its interest rate decisions, according to a report by CIBC economists. The report suggests that the labor market has become a more reliable indicator of excess demand or supply, and forecasts that if the job market outlook suggests it's not necessary, there may be no more rate hikes this year and rate cuts in early 2024.
Canada's second-quarter GDP report is expected to show a significant slowdown in economic growth, potentially leading to a pause in interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada despite recent high inflation data.
Canada's upcoming gross domestic product (GDP) reading is expected to be closely watched by the Bank of Canada (BoC) ahead of its September interest rate decision, with economists predicting a slowdown in the second quarter that could lead to a pause in interest rate hikes despite higher-than-expected inflation. The impact of recent wildfires and a dock workers strike is also expected to affect the data.
Canada's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, raising concerns of a possible recession, as declines in housing investment and slower exports and household spending impacted growth. This is likely to lead the central bank to hold interest rates steady.
Canada added 40,000 jobs in August, surpassing economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%. This positive job growth suggests that the economy is not completely stalled, but the Bank of Canada is not expected to raise interest rates in the near future.
UK gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.5% in July, below expectations, with services output being the main drag on the economy, indicating a potential mild recession, and causing investment banks to revise down their growth forecasts; however, some experts still believe that the economy is growing, albeit at a slower pace.
Canada's economic growth strategy is failing and needs to be reevaluated, as the country's GDP per capita growth is among the weakest in OECD countries and real incomes are lower than before the pandemic, with projections suggesting that it will not recover until at least 2027, according to policy advisers. The government's core policy beliefs, including freewheeling government spending, reliance on government programs to drive innovation, and excessive immigration, are misguided and contribute to a low-productivity, low-wage economy. A policy agenda focused on raising average living standards through fiscal and monetary policy restraint, productivity-focused measures, and tax and regulatory reforms is needed.
The Canadian economy has entered a long-delayed recession due to highly indebted households, overvalued home prices, and a slowdown in consumer spending, with the recession expected to last until the first quarter of 2024 and result in a 1.5% decline in GDP and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2%.
The Federal Reserve's forecast for the U.S. economy shows that while inflation and unemployment are close to their goals, economic growth will remain weak, primarily due to low labor productivity.
Canada's economy stalled in July and showed slight growth in August due to a decline in the manufacturing sector, leading to reduced expectations of an interest rate hike next month.
Canada's gross domestic product will be stagnant this quarter and grow at a slow pace in the first quarter of next year, with economists predicting that the country will narrowly avoid a recession but continue to face near-zero economic growth due to elevated interest rates.
Canada is experiencing an economic slowdown, with flat growth, rising unemployment, sluggish retail sales, and slowing inflation, leading economists to predict that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged at 5% and end its rate increase campaign.
The U.S. economy is expected to have grown by more than 4% in the third quarter, thanks to increased spending by households, businesses, and the government, along with a strong job market and pandemic savings, though there are concerns that higher borrowing costs and various uncertainties could slow growth in the coming months.
The U.S. economy experienced faster-than-expected growth in the third quarter, driven primarily by increased consumer spending and inventory accumulation, but these factors are likely to be volatile in the coming quarters, and GDP growth is expected to return to normal levels in the fourth quarter and slow down further in 2024 due to the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and potential vulnerabilities in the economy, leading to a potential aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed.
Against all odds, the US economy grew at an annualized rate of almost 5% last quarter, more than double the previous quarter, largely due to the power of low mortgage and loan rates, strong consumer balance sheets, increased productivity, and low employee turnover; however, there are concerns that the Federal Reserve hasn't done enough to combat inflation and that future revisions may change the story.
