The U.S. economy is forecasted to be growing rapidly, which is causing concern for the Federal Reserve and those hoping for low interest rates.
U.S. economic growth may be accelerating in the second half of 2023, defying earlier recession forecasts and leading to a repricing of long-term inflation and interest rate assumptions.
Despite a slight increase in Canada's inflation rate last month, the Bank of Canada remains determined to bring it down to 2%, with the possibility of another rate hike being considered in September. However, some economists believe that the positive overall figures may allow the Bank to pause on rate increases without a significant negative impact.
China's economic slowdown, marked by falling consumer prices, a deepening real estate crisis, and a slump in exports, has alarmed international leaders and investors, causing Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index to fall into a bear market and prompting major investment banks to downgrade their growth forecasts for China below 5%.
Despite predictions of a slowdown, the American economy continues to show strong growth, with recent data suggesting annualized growth of nearly 6% in the third quarter; however, concerns about overheating and potential inflation, as well as increasing bond yields, raise doubts about the sustainability of this growth.
The Bank of Canada may shift its focus from the output gap to labor market indicators, such as unemployment and wages, in order to make inflation forecasts and guide its interest rate decisions, according to a report by CIBC economists. The report suggests that the labor market has become a more reliable indicator of excess demand or supply, and forecasts that if the job market outlook suggests it's not necessary, there may be no more rate hikes this year and rate cuts in early 2024.
European Central Bank policymakers are increasingly concerned about deteriorating growth prospects and there is growing momentum for a pause in rate hikes as major economic indicators come in below expectations, suggesting a recession is now a distinct possibility.
Canada's biggest bank is warning investors of an economic slowdown as preliminary estimates show a sharp deceleration in GDP growth and weakening consumption and investment, raising the question of whether this slowdown will prevent further rate hikes.
The global economy may face slow growth due to record levels of government debt, geopolitical tensions, and weak productivity gains, which could hinder development in some countries even before it begins.
Canada's upcoming gross domestic product (GDP) reading is expected to be closely watched by the Bank of Canada (BoC) ahead of its September interest rate decision, with economists predicting a slowdown in the second quarter that could lead to a pause in interest rate hikes despite higher-than-expected inflation. The impact of recent wildfires and a dock workers strike is also expected to affect the data.
The US economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter, but still showed more strength than expected, with GDP revised down to 2.1% from an initial 2.4%; however, forecasts indicate a robust reading in the third quarter of 2.5% or higher, despite concerns of a potential recession.
The global economy is expected to slow down due to persistently high inflation, higher interest rates, China's slowing growth, and financial system stresses, according to Moody's Investors Service, although there may be pockets of resilience in markets like India and Indonesia.
Canada's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, raising concerns of a possible recession, as declines in housing investment and slower exports and household spending impacted growth. This is likely to lead the central bank to hold interest rates steady.
China's economy is showing signs of slowing down, including a decrease in GDP growth rate, declining exports, deflationary consumer price index, high youth unemployment, a weakening yuan, and a decrease in new loans, which could have global implications.
The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain interest rates at a 22-year high of 5% despite a contraction in the economy, as inflation remains above the bank's target.
Policymakers expect slower growth in China, potentially below 4%, as the country transitions to a consumption-driven economy, which could have a negative impact on the global economy and alleviate inflationary pressures.
Analysts have lowered their short-term forecasts for the Canadian dollar due to China's weakening economy and the widening yield gap between the US and Canada, but still project the currency to strengthen in the long term.
Canada added 40,000 jobs in August, surpassing economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%. This positive job growth suggests that the economy is not completely stalled, but the Bank of Canada is not expected to raise interest rates in the near future.
Canada's economic growth strategy is failing and needs to be reevaluated, as the country's GDP per capita growth is among the weakest in OECD countries and real incomes are lower than before the pandemic, with projections suggesting that it will not recover until at least 2027, according to policy advisers. The government's core policy beliefs, including freewheeling government spending, reliance on government programs to drive innovation, and excessive immigration, are misguided and contribute to a low-productivity, low-wage economy. A policy agenda focused on raising average living standards through fiscal and monetary policy restraint, productivity-focused measures, and tax and regulatory reforms is needed.
Ahead of New Zealand's official GDP data release, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research forecasts a slowdown in GDP growth and higher inflation, causing the NZD/USD to pare back gains.
Germany is projected to be the most heavily impacted by the global economic slowdown due to higher interest rates and weaker global trade, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with its economy likely to shrink this year alongside Argentina and experience a weaker 2024. The slowdown in China, inflationary pressures, and tightening monetary policy are among the factors affecting Germany's growth. The OECD also warned of persistent inflation pressures in various economies and called for central banks to maintain restrictive interest rates until underlying inflationary pressures subside.
Canada's inflation rate rose to 4.0% in August, driven by higher gasoline prices, while the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion is expected to disrupt oil flow to the US, potentially increasing prices, according to Statistics Canada. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes the US economy can withstand near-term risks such as strikes, government shutdowns, student loan payments, and spillovers from China's economic woes, stating evidence of a healthy labor market and consumer spending. Rent is rising faster in Brampton than in any other Canadian city, leading to financial difficulties for renters.
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