Despite a slight increase in Canada's inflation rate last month, the Bank of Canada remains determined to bring it down to 2%, with the possibility of another rate hike being considered in September. However, some economists believe that the positive overall figures may allow the Bank to pause on rate increases without a significant negative impact.
Canada's second-quarter GDP report is expected to show a significant slowdown in economic growth, potentially leading to a pause in interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada despite recent high inflation data.
Canada's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, raising concerns of a possible recession, as declines in housing investment and slower exports and household spending impacted growth. This is likely to lead the central bank to hold interest rates steady.
The U.S. economy experienced modest growth in July and August, driven by pent-up demand for leisure activities, while nonessential retail sales slowed, according to the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" survey.
Canada added 40,000 jobs in August, surpassing economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%. This positive job growth suggests that the economy is not completely stalled, but the Bank of Canada is not expected to raise interest rates in the near future.
The Canadian economy has entered a long-delayed recession due to highly indebted households, overvalued home prices, and a slowdown in consumer spending, with the recession expected to last until the first quarter of 2024 and result in a 1.5% decline in GDP and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2%.
China's small economic rebound appears to have stalled in September, with weak retail sales, manufacturing production, and loan growth, raising concerns about anemic third-quarter growth and the country falling short of its growth target.
Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) remained essentially unchanged in July, with zero percent growth, due to a decline in the manufacturing sector, weaker performance than expected, and shrinking industries such as agriculture, transportation, and retail. On the positive side, the mining and oil and gas sector experienced growth. Economists predict little to no growth in the third quarter, leading to expectations that the Bank of Canada will not make any changes to monetary policy for the rest of the year.
Consumer prices in the US grew at the same pace in September as in August, indicating that progress in controlling inflation may be stalling, prompting Federal Reserve officials to remain cautious with interest rate decisions.
Canada's gross domestic product will be stagnant this quarter and grow at a slow pace in the first quarter of next year, with economists predicting that the country will narrowly avoid a recession but continue to face near-zero economic growth due to elevated interest rates.
Canada is experiencing an economic slowdown, with flat growth, rising unemployment, sluggish retail sales, and slowing inflation, leading economists to predict that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged at 5% and end its rate increase campaign.
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