### Summary
The People's Bank of China is expected to cut interest rates, but may need to take a larger action to calm the uncertainty in the market. Other factors like the US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium and the BRICS summit will also impact investor sentiment.
### Facts
- 💰 The People's Bank of China is expected to cut interest rates to soothe market concerns.
- 💼 Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia are expected to keep interest rates on hold this week.
- 🌍 The US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium and the BRICS summit will affect investor thinking.
- 📉 Chinese policymakers' conservative nature may result in more aggressive moves in the interest rate cut.
- 🔒 The currency is already weak and vulnerable, posing a risk to further cuts.
- 📉 Economists are lowering Chinese GDP growth forecasts, doubting the country will achieve its 2023 goal.
- 🏘️ The real estate crisis and the scale of indebtedness raise questions about the stability of the shadow banking system.
- 🔧 Beijing is taking steps to boost confidence, but measures seem insufficient.
- 📉 Chinese blue chip stocks have decreased by 6% in the last two weeks.
- 🌐 Global markets are facing a deteriorating backdrop, with the dollar surging, US Treasury yields rising, and stock markets experiencing instability.
- 🗓️ Key developments on Monday include China's interest rate decision, Thailand's Q2 GDP, and Hong Kong's July inflation.
China's major state-owned banks are actively acquiring offshore yuan liquidity, raising the cost of shorting the Chinese currency and potentially stabilizing the yuan.
The US dollar weakened slightly against major peers as traders awaited a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the yen pulled away from a nine-month low and China's yuan briefly rose following attempts to bolster the currency.
Chinese shares dropped as banks in the country cut interest rates less than expected, with the benchmark one-year loan prime rate being lowered by 0.1 percentage point to 3.45%.
Global investors are skeptical of China's ability to stabilize its financial markets, with many predicting that economic pressures will cause the offshore exchange rate of the yuan to reach record lows.
China's currency, the yuan, is at its lowest level against the dollar since the 2008 financial crash, which raises concerns about the country's economic stability and its ability to boost domestic consumption.
China's central bank will cut the amount of foreign exchange reserves required for financial institutions, in an effort to slow the decline of the yuan.
Falling prices in China, driven by a weakened economy, could benefit countries with elevated inflation such as the U.S., India, Germany, and the Netherlands.
The dollar strengthens against the yen and keeps the euro and sterling near three-month lows as investors rely on the resilience of the U.S. economy, while China's onshore yuan hits a 16-year low due to a property slump and weak consumer spending.
The Chinese yuan has dropped to a 16-year low against the dollar due to concerns over a deepening economic slowdown in China, with data showing a decline in exports for the fourth consecutive month.
China's new yuan loans are expected to rebound in August after a decline in July, as the central bank implements measures to support economic growth during soft domestic and international demand.
China's yuan finished the domestic session on Friday at its weakest since the global financial crisis, impacted by capital outflow pressures and a growing yield gap with other major economies, leading to expectations of further selling pressure in the near term but likely measured losses.
The Chinese yuan bounces back from a 16-year low as the central bank vows to stabilize the currency and take necessary actions to correct market moves.
China's economy is facing potential decline due to high debt levels, government interference, and an aging population, with warnings of a full-blown financial crisis echoing the 2008 US recession. Failure to liberalize the economy could have long-term consequences, as foreign investments are restricted and the lack of capital inflow and outflow could harm businesses.
China's currency, the yuan, has depreciated over 8% against the dollar as the Chinese economy grows less than expected, making it harder to reach its growth target of 5% for 2023, and worries about the economy have intensified due to issues in the real estate sector and financial health of local governments, causing concerns about the future of the yuan which may experience a slow but steady depreciation in the face of a weak dollar and a desire to maintain a trade surplus.
The dollar remains stable in Asia, while the yuan strengthens due to positive economic data from China.
Gold gained as the dollar weakened against the yuan due to positive China economic data, although the possibility of further U.S. interest rate hikes kept investors cautious.
China is unlikely to devalue its currency, the yuan, despite concerns that it could do so to boost exports, as such a move would risk intensifying capital flight and tightening financial conditions, according to the Institute of International Finance. Instead, the focus will be on domestic easing measures to maintain steady growth, although there is the challenge of balancing the yuan's stability against the strengthening US dollar and other major currencies.
The European Central Bank's decision to signal its last rate hike has further weakened the euro, causing hedge funds and speculators to anticipate potential parity with the dollar.
China is experiencing a significant outflow of capital, putting pressure on the yuan and raising concerns for authorities as the currency weakens and financial markets become destabilized.
China maintains benchmark lending rates unchanged as signs of economic stabilization and a weakening yuan lessen the need for immediate monetary easing.
China experienced its largest capital outflow since 2015, with $49 billion leaving the country, as economic concerns prompt investors to withdraw; of this, $29 billion was withdrawn from securities investments, including bonds. The outflow was compounded by a record-high $12 billion in mainland-listed stocks being dumped by foreign investors and a $16.8 billion deficit in direct investment, the largest since 2016. The decline in the capital account was exacerbated by the tourism season, with outbound travel negatively impacting the services sector, while inbound travel remained suppressed, causing a continued deficit in the services trade. Efforts by Beijing, such as reducing the foreign currency reserves held by banks, have aimed to support the yuan but have been unable to prevent a significant decline in the offshore yuan. Weak exports and the allure of US yields have also contributed to the yuan's decline, further complicating China's capital flight situation, as doubts about the country's ability to achieve its 5% GDP target for the year grow.
The yen weakened against the dollar as the Bank of Japan announced it would maintain its accommodative monetary policy, with little indication of rolling it back.
Asian shares fall due to concerns over interest rates, inflation data, and China's economy, while bond investors face the impact of the US Federal Reserve's more hawkish rate projections.
Most Asian currencies, including the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit, weakened against the US dollar as the greenback continued to strengthen due to hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and rising US Treasury yields, leading to concerns over inflationary pressures in net importers such as Thailand and India.
Asian shares mostly fell amid concerns about the U.S. banking system and Chinese economic growth, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 0.4%, while China's export data showed the sharpest decline in three years. Bank stocks in the U.S. also fell after Moody's cut credit ratings for 10 smaller and midsized banks, citing concerns about their financial strength in light of higher interest rates and the work-from-home trend. The Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation by raising interest rates have led to a slowdown in the economy and hit banks hard.
China's weak economic recovery and the risks associated with its property crisis are likely to impact Asia's economic prospects, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), leading to a cloudier outlook for the region and potential spillover effects on commodity-exporting countries with close trade links to China. The IMF revised its growth estimate for Asia down to 4.2% for 2024, and emphasized the need for central banks in the region to exercise caution in cutting interest rates due to sticky core inflation and other global factors such as the Middle East conflict. Additionally, the IMF warned that Japan's normalization of monetary policy could have significant global implications.
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