### Summary
Investor Jeremy Grantham warns that the U.S. will experience a recession next year due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and unsustainable asset prices.
### Facts
- Grantham believes the Fed's previous predictions and actions have been wrong, and it has failed to predict recessions in the past.
- He argues that the economy is still feeling the impact of the Fed's interest rate hikes, which are increasing borrowing costs and depressing real estate prices.
- Grantham criticizes the Fed for stimulating asset price bubbles with low interest rates and aggressive purchases of securities.
- He predicts that the unsustainable growth in asset prices and a lack of investment in key raw materials will lead to a recession.
- Economist David Rosenberg shares Grantham's bearish outlook and warns of headwinds to the U.S. economy, including China's economic issues and the end of the U.S. student debt relief program.
- Both Grantham and Rosenberg have had to push back their recession predictions but remain convinced that rising interest rates will eventually lead to an economic downturn.
The stock market is being negatively impacted by intense competition and a real yield problem.
CNBC's Jim Cramer believes that China's market won't collapse despite its recent economic challenges, as he trusts the country's leadership to address the issues and prevent a complete downfall.
Surging U.S. Treasury yields are causing concern among investors as they wonder how much it will impact the rally in stocks and speculative assets, with the S&P 500, technology sector, bitcoin, and high-growth names all experiencing losses; rising rates are making it more difficult for borrowers and increasing the appeal of risk-free Treasury yields.
A stock market rally is likely to occur in the near future, as recent data indicates that a bounce is expected after a period of selling pressure, with several sectors and markets reaching oversold levels and trading below their normal risk ranges. Additionally, analysis suggests that sectors such as Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Financials, and Bonds, which have been underperforming, could provide upside potential in 2024 if there is a decline in interest rates driven by the Federal Reserve.
Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal predicts that the stock market will soon hit a bottom, with the S&P 500 entering oversold territory, and expects institutional buyers to step in and establish a market bottom; he also suggests that Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing bullish signs on certain indicators.
Despite the inverted yield curve, which traditionally predicts an economic downturn, the US economy has remained strong due to factors such as fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts and a lag time before interest rate hikes impact the economy, but some bond market experts believe the yield curve will eventually prove to be a good indicator for the market and the economy.
Jim Cramer anticipates that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole may signal further interest rate hikes, potentially causing stocks to decline, but advises investors to keep strong companies like Apple and Nvidia and seek opportunities for discounted stocks.
Jim Cramer advises investors to take advantage of periods of weakness and buy the "best beaten-down stocks" for good buying opportunities.
Bank of America believes that the stock market will continue to rise as investors' bullish sentiment contradicts their conservative portfolio positioning, suggesting there is still upside potential until hedge funds increase their exposure to cyclical and high-beta stocks and economic conditions deteriorate considerably.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel predicts that the stock market will continue to rise into the end of the year, with the S&P 500 potentially surging 25% and gaining an additional 9% if the Federal Reserve acknowledges falling inflation and refrains from further interest rate hikes.
Stock investors have been reacting positively to "bad economic news" as it may imply a slowdown in the economy and a potential halt to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, for this trend to change, economic data would have to be much worse than it is currently.
Jeremy Siegel, known as the "Wizard of Wharton," believes that the US stock market is in a good position due to receding inflation threats, and that the housing market is resilient as investors view both as valuable hedges against inflation. Additionally, a softer labor market could delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike until December.
The author argues against the common belief that rising interest rates and a rising dollar will negatively impact the stock market, citing historical evidence that contradicts this perspective and emphasizes the importance of analyzing market reality rather than personal beliefs. The author presents a bullish outlook for the market, with a potential rally towards the 4800SPX region, but also acknowledges the possibility of a corrective pullback.
Rising bond yields and interest rates are a concern for CNBC's Jim Cramer, who believes that the market will struggle to advance if rates continue to climb.
The possibility of a recession should not be dismissed by equity investors despite recent stock market rallies, warns economist Michael Darda, who notes that historical data shows that recession typically follows an inversion in the yield curve within an average of 14 months.
CNBC's Jim Cramer advises investors to prepare for upcoming conferences and suggests getting more bullish on the stock market as the Federal Reserve nears the end of its tightening cycle, despite potential economic slowdown concerns.
The US economy is facing a looming recession, with weakness in certain sectors, but investors should not expect a significant number of interest-rate cuts next year, according to Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. She points out that leading indicators have severely deteriorated, indicating trouble ahead, and predicts a full-blown recession as the most likely outcome. Despite this, the stock market has been defying rate increases and performing well.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Goldman Sachs may be optimistic about a "soft landing" scenario for the US economy, but the author remains skeptical due to factors such as a deeply inverted yield curve, declining Leading Economic Indicators, challenges faced by the consumer, global growth concerns, and the lagging impact of the Fed's monetary policy, leading them to maintain a conservative portfolio allocation.
The bond market's 10-year and 3-month yield curve has been inverted for a record-breaking 212 straight trading days, indicating the possibility of an upcoming economic recession despite economists' lowered expectations; however, the inversion's uniqueness, driven by the Federal Reserve's focus on combating inflation during a period of strong economic growth, leaves open the question of whether this inversion will fail to predict a recession, particularly if the Fed is able to declare victory on inflation and cut interest rates to above the neutral rate of around 2.5%.
The end of the Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle could be positive for U.S. stocks, but with an uncertain economic outlook and stretched valuations, upside may be limited this time around.
Amid indications that the bond market is betting on higher interest rates for a longer period, some investors are placing bets on the economy hitting a wall and a potential reversal in policy in the near future.
The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision will impact stock and bond investors, with a hawkish stance being unfavorable and a dovish stance being favorable.
The bond market's recession indicator, known as the inverted yield curve, is likely correct in signaling a coming recession and suggests that the Federal Reserve made a major mistake in its inflation policy, according to economist Campbell Harvey. The yield curve, which has correctly predicted every recession since 1968, typically lags behind the start of a recession, with the average wait time being 13 months. Harvey believes that a recession is imminent due to the Fed's tight monetary policy and warns against further interest rate hikes.
Investors are selling and bringing the market down due to reasons like interest rates, macroeconomic weakness, fear of giving up on gains, the Federal Reserve, the political climate, and potential strikes, according to CNBC's Jim Cramer.
Stocks may not be as negatively impacted by higher interest rates as some fear, as the Federal Reserve's forecast of sustained economic growth justifies the higher rates and could lead to increased stock valuations.
Treasury yields are expected to rise in the future, which could have a negative impact on the stock market.
CNBC's Jim Cramer explains how to guard against market declines caused by the Federal Reserve and suggests focusing on "accidental high yielders" that continue to pay high dividends during market drops.
Higher interest rates are causing a downturn in the stock market, but technological advancements in recent decades may provide some hope for investors.
CNBC's Jim Cramer advises investors to view recent stock market weakness as an opportunity to buy, despite the competition from U.S. government bonds, as he believes interest rates will eventually top out after the Federal Reserve tames inflation.
CNBC's Jim Cramer is cautiously optimistic about the market's recent bounce, but warns that further decline is possible due to bond yields and oil prices, although historical seasonal patterns suggest conditions may start to turn in October.
Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about sustained high interest rates, with the bond and foreign-exchange markets already showing signs of adjusting, and if stock markets do not follow suit, the coming months could be particularly challenging.
Investors attempt a risk-on rally as Treasury yields and oil prices stabilize, but concerns over higher interest rates continue to impact sentiment in European and global markets.
The Australian share market and broader economy are facing multiple threats, including rising interest rates, cracks in China's property sector, diminishing demand for construction materials, rising oil prices, and global fallout from the US political divide over debt levels, which could potentially result in substantial damage. There are concerns over a potential recession in the US, Australia, and the UK, with investors on edge due to recent volatility in equity markets and the inversion of the yield curve. Uncertainty and mixed signals in the market are leaving investors unsure about the future direction.
The surging bond yields are causing concern among investors that the highly valued shares of giant technology and growth companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Tesla, may be vulnerable to a decline.
The bond yield curve, a reliable predictor of economic downturns, is warning of serious trouble ahead, as it has accurately predicted the last six recessions since 1978. The inverted yield curve, which is currently being observed, indicates investor panic and adds to the sense of a looming recession.
The stock market sinks as Wall Street focuses on the downside of a strong job market, with rising Treasury yields putting pressure on stocks and making borrowing more expensive for companies and households.
The stock market's resilience in the face of rising bond yields could be a warning sign, as it mirrors the conditions seen before the 1987 stock crash and any sign of recession now could lead to a major sell-off, according to Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards.
CNBC's Jim Cramer believes that the current pullback in stocks due to rising Treasury yields could be an opportunity for investors to buy stocks at a bargain and potentially make significant gains.
The rapid surge in US bond yields is causing a selloff in interest rate-sensitive areas of the stock market, raising concerns about the longevity of the current bull run for equities.
Jim Cramer anticipates a potential stock market rally based on Friday's upcoming nonfarm payroll report, which may influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and potentially please the market, although weakness in certain sectors is expected.
The recent surge in global bond yields, driven by rising term premiums and expectations of higher interest rates, signals the potential end of the era of low interest rates and poses risks for heavily indebted countries like Italy, as well as Japan and other economies tied to rock-bottom interest rates.
The recent stock market pullback accompanied by a Treasury market rout has left investors increasingly pessimistic, but extreme pessimism could potentially lead to strong stock-market gains in the future, depending on how the situation resolves.
Market observers are concerned about a sharp jump in Treasury yields similar to that of the 1987 crash, and Saxo Bank's chief investment officer Steen Jakobsen suggests that investors reduce risk by increasing cash balances, hedging portfolios, rotating into short-term bonds, favoring defensive sectors over cyclicals, and avoiding mega-cap stocks.
The rise in Treasury bond yields above 5% could lead to a more sustainable increase and potential havoc in financial markets, as investors demand greater compensation for risk and corporate credit spreads widen, making government debt a more attractive option and leaving the stock market vulnerable to declines; despite this, stock investors appeared unfazed by the September jobs report and all three major stock indexes were higher by the end of trading.
Goldman Sachs economists warn that the recent surge in US Treasury yields will hamper economic growth and pose financial risks, though the bank does not predict a recession; they estimate a 0.5 percentage-point blow to US GDP over the next year.
Despite the deadly conflict between Israel and Hamas, Jim Cramer suggests that the market is not being significantly affected, as investors are more concerned about inflation, Federal Reserve decisions, and corporate profits.
