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Inflation Spikes in August on Gas Prices, But Economists See Only Temporary Blip in Cooling Trend

  • Inflation rose in August primarily due to higher gasoline prices, but economists say this is likely a temporary increase.

  • Aside from energy, there are signs that underlying inflation continued to retreat in August. Economists expect the downward trend to resume after this temporary spike.

  • Gasoline prices jumped 10.6% in August, accounting for over half the monthly inflation increase. But gas prices are still 3.3% lower than a year ago.

  • Core inflation, excluding food and energy, ticked up slightly in August but remains well below its peak. Economists say it was a small bump in the road amid an overall cooling trend.

  • Inflation has complex, global roots including pandemic supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine, a hot labor market, and more. But economists say many of these drivers have eased significantly.

cnbc.com
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Gas prices in California have increased throughout August and are expected to be high over the Labor Day weekend, with the average price for a gallon of gasoline at $5.26, up 8 cents from last week and 37 cents from a month ago, according to AAA.
Rising gasoline prices are impacting inflation-weary Americans.
The average retail price of regular gasoline in the United States has increased by 6% over the past five weeks, reaching $3.81 per gallon heading into the Labor Day weekend, due to factors such as oil production cuts, low gasoline inventories, and refinery maintenance.
Summary: Rising oil prices and increasing gas prices, driven by the Russian-Saudi agreement to extend oil production cuts, are contributing to inflation concerns and putting pressure on the markets, leading to potential gains for oil stocks like ConocoPhillips and Chevron.
Financial markets are preparing for a rebound in U.S. inflation in August, driven by higher energy prices, which could disrupt expectations of easy inflation control by the Federal Reserve.
Rising oil prices are making it harder for the Federal Reserve to achieve its 2% inflation target, as increased energy costs could lead to higher prices for goods and services, potentially complicating the Fed's plan to hold interest rates steady and achieve a "soft landing" for the economy.
Investors and the Federal Reserve will have to wait for inflation to return to acceptable levels, as the Consumer Price Index report for August 2023 shows consumer prices rising at half the pace compared to a year ago, despite a jump in gas prices.
Americans' overall views on inflation remained unchanged in August, despite predictions of rising prices for rent, homes, and food, and a downgrade in their personal financial situations, according to the New York Fed's Consumer Sentiment Survey.
The Consumer Price Index is expected to show an increase in inflation in August, with headline inflation rising to 3.6% and core inflation easing to 4.4%, but the market is accustomed to this trend and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its rates at the upcoming meeting.
U.S. consumer prices are expected to have increased the most in 14 months in August due to rising gasoline costs, while underlying inflation is forecasted to remain moderate, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady.
Despite a spike in gas prices, the rise in inflation appears to be easing gradually, with core prices exhibiting a slower increase in August compared to July, suggesting that price pressures are being brought under control.
Gas and housing prices continue to rise, leading to a 0.6% increase in the federal consumer price index for August and a 3.7% increase for the year, causing concerns about overall inflation and its impact on household budgets.
Inflation in the US accelerated for the second consecutive month in August due to rising costs of rent and gasoline, with the consumer price index rising 0.6% from the previous month and 3.7% from the same time last year.
US wholesale prices increased at a faster pace in August, indicating that inflation remains persistent despite interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Wholesale inflation in the US exceeded expectations in August, driven by higher gasoline prices, indicating that inflationary pressures are still present in the economy.
August inflation rose to 3.7%, the highest month-to-month increase since June 2022, driven by rising gas prices, which accounted for over half of the rise, while prices for shelter and food remained elevated; however, the Federal Reserve's reaction to the data is uncertain as there are signs of prices moderating but also concerns over inflation remaining too high.
Producer prices rose more than expected in August, signaling further inflationary pressures due to a surge in energy costs.
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in August due to higher gasoline prices, but underlying spending on goods slowed as Americans faced increased inflation and borrowing costs, while the trend in underlying spending on goods was not as robust as initially thought in July. Despite this, overall consumer spending is expected to remain strong, driven by spending on services.
Gasoline prices in the US have reached a record high for this time of year, posing a challenge to President Joe Biden's fight against inflation.
The unprecedented increase in fuel prices in Pakistan is expected to cause a significant rise in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index projected to reach as high as 30% to 32% in September 2023.
Economists predict that Canada's inflation rate is likely to increase to around four percent in August, mainly due to higher gasoline prices, reversing the previous progress made.
Gasoline prices are rising due to oil supply cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as flooding in Libya, but some experts believe that increasing oil prices will not have a significant impact on the US economy and do not expect them to rise much higher in the next year or two due to factors such as increased US oil production, slow global economic growth, and the green energy transition. However, high oil prices can lead to higher inflation, potential recession, and could influence the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but the impact may not be as severe as in the past, and some experts recommend investing in the energy transition and adopting a more defensive investment strategy.
Oil prices reach a 3-month high as OPEC maintains tight supply. Gas prices in the US rise, posing a threat to efforts against inflation.
Rising crude oil prices, driven by supply concerns and output cuts, threaten to push up petrol prices and hinder efforts to tame inflation, putting pressure on central bankers.
Policymakers in the US and Europe may find comfort in the slowdown of underlying measures of consumer-price growth, but rising crude oil prices could still fuel further inflation.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation decreased in August, indicating that efforts to combat inflation are progressing, although there are still price growth pressures that could lead to further interest rate hikes by the central bank.
Higher gas prices boosted an inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve in August, but measures of underlying inflation slowed, suggesting that overall price pressures are still moderating, potentially leading the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.
Gas prices in the Los Angeles area have risen, prompting state officials to take action by authorizing the early rollout of winter-blend gasoline to increase fuel supply and alleviate the burden on consumers.
Fuel prices in Australia are rising, which could contribute to an increase in quarterly inflation, leading to concerns about the future of oil and the reliance on fossil fuels as efforts to reduce carbon emissions continue.
Gasoline prices have increased over time, but when adjusted for inflation and considered in relation to fuel efficiency and real wages, they are only marginally more expensive than in previous years, highlighting the often misleading nature of political rhetoric surrounding gas prices.
Gasoline prices are expected to drop significantly as crude oil prices decrease and demand remains low, with many areas already seeing falling prices due to the production of less expensive winter grade fuel and the lowest seasonal demand levels in 25 years.
U.S. gasoline prices are expected to decrease and may reach $3 per gallon due to a drop in crude oil futures, potentially benefiting consumers and cooling inflation but also indicating economic weakness with low gasoline demand.
Consumers perceive inflation as much higher than official figures indicate at the moment, largely due to sharp increases in the price of things like restaurant dining, hotel accommodation, and gasoline.
The U.S. government's upcoming inflation report is expected to show a cooling off of inflation, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, and core inflation expected to be up 4.1% from September last year, indicating slower price increases in September than in August.
The upcoming monthly inflation report is expected to show that inflation in the US is cooling off, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, indicating slower price increases in September than in August. However, if the report reveals that inflation remained higher than expected, especially in core areas, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, further slowing the economy.
Crude oil prices dipped slightly following a significant increase in gasoline inventories, raising concerns about demand, despite the war premium added by events in the Middle East.