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Oil Prices Could Hit $100 But Unsustainable Above $90, Says Citi Analyst

  • Oil prices may hit $100/barrel briefly but look unsustainable above $90, says Citi analyst Ed Morse
  • Saudi/Russia output cuts have boosted prices recently along with geopolitical tensions
  • But Morse sees faster supply than demand growth limiting upside, with prices averaging $84 in Q4 2023
  • Non-OPEC production like US, Brazil, Canada is growing again, even Iran/Venezuela exports
  • Higher oil prices now could mean more downside in 2024 as inventory builds; Saudis may reverse cuts if too tight
yahoo.com
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Summary: Oil prices are expected to continue rising due to tightening in the physical market, with a projected deficit of 2MMbbls/d in the second half of 2023, and forecasts of Brent averaging $86/bbl over 3Q23 and $92/bbl over 4Q23, while the medium sour crude market tightens, and concerns remain over Russian oil supply risks and global demand.
The price of Brent crude oil hitting triple digits this year is debatable, with some experts believing it is unlikely due to macro factors and demand concerns, while others predict it could reach $100 per barrel if certain conditions are met, such as consistent OECD crude and product stock draws and OPEC adherence to production cuts.
Oil prices edge higher in an uncertain market as US crude futures rise 0.1% to $78.94 a barrel, despite a 2% drop for the week, due to production cuts by major oil producers and a mixed US economy.
Oil prices rose over 1% as the dollar strengthened ahead of a speech by the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve for clues on interest rates, with Brent crude reaching $84.29 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude at $79.92, while a strong dollar and recent inventory draws affected demand and supply.
Oil prices rise as US crude inventories decline by 11.5 million barrels and concerns about Hurricane Idalia in the Gulf of Mexico persist.
Crude oil prices rose after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected inventory decline of 10.6 million barrels for the week ending August 25.
A group of oil analysts and economists have raised their 2023 oil price forecasts, predicting Brent crude will average $82.45 a barrel and that Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntary oil supply cut into October.
The price of WTI crude oil reached a new high for the year, hitting $85 per barrel, due to falling inventory levels and factors such as production cuts and a weakening dollar.
Oil prices jumped over 2.5% after OPEC+ members extended supply reductions, with Brent International topping $90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovering above $87 per barrel, as Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its production cut and Russia reduced its exports. Despite slow recovery and increased production, crude futures have rallied more than 25% since late June, with experts predicting prices to continue rising unless a recession occurs. China's demand for petrochemicals has been dampened, but their mobility demand post-lockdowns has offset this.
Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices could reach $107 per barrel next year if OPEC+ producers maintain their production cuts, although this is not their base-case scenario.
Crude oil prices in the US increased due to a 6.3 million barrel inventory draw, following a massive decline of 10.6 million barrels the previous week, bringing inventories to the lowest in eight months.
If Saudi Arabia continues to keep its output low, oil prices could surpass $100 as the market has yet to experience the full impact of its production cuts, according to Vortexa.
The extension of voluntary oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia has caused oil prices to surge above $90 a barrel, threatening an inflationary spike that could disrupt central banks' plans to wind down interest-rate hikes, particularly for the Bank of Canada.
The OPEC+ decision to cut production is putting inflationary pressure on the US and its allies, while China's encouragement of higher oil and gas prices may have negative economic consequences for the country. The short-term steady equilibrium price for Brent is projected to be around $80-85 per barrel, with a ceiling of $95 per barrel.
Oil prices reach new highs in 2023 due to supply constraints caused by output reductions from Saudi Arabia and Russia, raising concerns about global inventory shortages and potential inflationary pressures.
Oil prices reached their highest level of the year, with analysts predicting that prices could reach $100 a barrel by the end of the year due to tighter supply and production constraints from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Oil prices continue to rise as OPEC+ supply cuts tighten the market, with Brent crude surpassing $94 a barrel and speculators increasing bullish wagers on Brent and West Texas Intermediate, leading to concerns about inflationary pressures.
Some grades of crude oil, including Nigerian crude Qua Iboe and Malaysian crude Tapis, are already trading above $100 a barrel, indicating expectations of tight supply, as oil prices reach their highest level in 2023 due to concerns about a supply deficit in the fourth quarter.
Global oil prices continue to soar, with Brent crude nearing $95 per barrel and some crude grades surpassing $100, driven by tight supply, excess demand, and production cut extensions by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Oil prices surged to a 10-month high on tightening supply cuts from OPEC+, with predictions of $100 oil returning, potentially rekindling inflation and posing a challenge for central bankers and the Biden administration.
Chevron CEO says the economy can handle rising oil prices, with prices on track to reach $100 per barrel due to supply constraints and a resilient global economy.
Gas prices in the US have reached their highest level in 11 months, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve in its campaign to control inflation. Factors contributing to the increase include rising oil prices, production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, reduced refinery production due to hot weather, and low reserves in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, prices are expected to decrease with the switch to a cheaper gasoline blend in the fall and projected global economic slowdown in 2024.
Goldman Sachs predicts that crude oil prices could reach $100 a barrel, posing a risk to global economic growth and complicating central bankers' efforts to control inflation, which could impact interest rate policies and further increase gasoline prices.
Oil prices reaching $95 per barrel, the highest level since November 2022, pose a setback for Rishi Sunak's goal of halving inflation, with analysts predicting a 7.1% rise in consumer prices in August due to petrol price increases, adding to inflationary pressures and potentially influencing the Bank of England's interest rate decision.
Continental Resources CEO Doug Lawler predicts that crude prices will remain high and could reach $120 to $150 per barrel without increased production, adding that more output is necessary to prevent further price pressure.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid tight supplies and speculation over what $100 oil could do to the economy, with JPMorgan economists projecting a potential impact on global GDP growth if prices remain elevated.
Oil prices reached a 2023 high as inventories at the largest storage hub in the US decreased, leading to speculation of $100 per barrel oil in the near future.
Oil majors ExxonMobil, Chevron, and BP are near buy points as U.S. crude oil prices continue to rise above $90 per barrel.
US oil prices reached $94 a barrel for the first time in over a year, leading to concerns of higher prices at the pump and inflation across the economy.
Oil prices hit their highest levels in over a year as ongoing production cuts raise concerns about the global economy, while the specter of $100 oil looms and supply tightness becomes apparent with reduced stockpiles and increased refining. Higher interest rates may dampen crude demand, but for now, the focus remains on supply.
Oil industry analysts have raised their price forecasts for 2023, with most expecting Brent Crude to average $84.09 per barrel, but few foresee sustained $100 oil due to an artificially tightened market and uncertain global economic outlook.
Oil prices are facing resistance above $95 per barrel due to concerns that Saudi Arabia may unwind its production cuts earlier than expected, despite bullish catalysts such as falling crude inventories and the approval of the largest oilfield in the UK North Sea.
The head of OPEC warns that a lack of investment in the oil industry poses a danger to global energy security and could cause crude prices to reach $100 a barrel.
U.S. gasoline prices are expected to decrease and may reach $3 per gallon due to a drop in crude oil futures, potentially benefiting consumers and cooling inflation but also indicating economic weakness with low gasoline demand.
Oil prices fell over $1 a barrel as traders remained cautious about potential supply disruptions amid military clashes between Israel and Hamas, although concerns about Middle East supply and an expected deficit for the rest of the year have led to the pricing in of a risk premium.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as concerns about potential supply disruptions from the conflict between Israel and Hamas eased, although traders remained watchful. Both Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude experienced significant drops, with Brent down 47 cents at $87.68 a barrel and WTI falling 42 cents to $85.92 a barrel.
Oil prices rose above $91 a barrel amid concerns that the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza could escalate and disrupt regional oil supply.