### Summary
The US economy and markets appear to be in good shape, with a strong stock market, low inflation, and low unemployment. However, there are potential risks on the horizon, including the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, supply and labor shocks from the pandemic, political polarization, and the possibility of another government shutdown. While the overall outlook for investing remains uncertain, it's important for investors to prepare for any eventuality.
### Facts
- The US stock market is close to its 2022 peak, inflation is less severe than a year ago, and the economy remains strong with low unemployment.
- The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 5 percentage points, which could lead to economic growth faltering.
- The US economy is facing supply and labor shocks from the pandemic and commodity shortages caused by Russia's war with Ukraine.
- Falling prices in China could contribute to disinflation in the US and elsewhere.
- Political polarization in the US and the possibility of another government shutdown could negatively impact the economy and markets.
- Despite the resilience and stability of the economy and markets, there are still risks to consider, including a crisis in commercial real estate and the potential for inflation to flare up again.
- Some economists and surveys predict a 50% probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months.
- Investing should be based on a long-term outlook and a diversified portfolio, with cash on hand to cover expenses.
Note: Due to the nature of the text provided, some of the facts may be subjective or based on the author's opinion.
### Summary
The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages, suggesting that the stock market is not unanchored from reality. However, the performance of long-term US Treasuries has been poor, with even 10-year Treasuries resulting in losses over the last five years. Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain whether it will be enough to bring down inflation rates.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 returns over the last one, five, and ten years are only slightly above their long-term averages.
- The performance of long-term US Treasuries has been weak, resulting in losses for investors even after accounting for coupon payments.
- Slower economic growth may be on the horizon, but it remains uncertain if it will bring down inflation rates.
- The nature of the stock market rally suggests that investors are still searching for buying opportunities rather than thinking about selling.
- Energy, industrials, and financials have become favored sectors, while technology stocks have started to decline.
- The Chinese economy is struggling, with retail sales and industrial production growth slowing down.
- The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about inflation but also noted downside risks to the economy.
###
A stock market rally is likely to occur in the near future, as recent data indicates that a bounce is expected after a period of selling pressure, with several sectors and markets reaching oversold levels and trading below their normal risk ranges. Additionally, analysis suggests that sectors such as Utilities, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Financials, and Bonds, which have been underperforming, could provide upside potential in 2024 if there is a decline in interest rates driven by the Federal Reserve.
Wall Street has experienced a strong rebound in 2023, with major market indexes climbing at least 20% from their lows, leading to optimism about the beginning of the next bull market; investors are advised to consider buying Alphabet and Amazon due to their strong performance, dominance in their respective industries, and attractive valuations.
Volatility and rising interest rates have caused a pullback in U.S. equity markets, particularly impacting the technology sector, but investors should not panic as pullbacks are normal in a bull market and present buying opportunities. China's deteriorating economic conditions and weak seasonal trends have also contributed to the selling pressure. However, support is expected to be found in the 4,200 to 4,300 range in the S&P 500, and the Federal Reserve's likely end to the rate-hiking cycle and improved earnings should provide fundamental support for investors to buy the dip.
The stock market has been riding high in 2023, but recent market trends and uncertainties about interest rates and inflation have led to a pullback in August, leaving investors unsure about the future direction of the market. It is advised to stick to a long-term investment plan and remain focused on investment objectives and risk tolerance.
The S&P 500 is nearing a new bull market, potentially leading to stock market growth, and investors should consider stocks like Amazon and Mastercard based on the holdings of Wall Street billionaires and their solid growth prospects.
Global stock markets are expected to experience a correction in the coming months, although analysts predict marginal gains by the end of 2023, as concerns about underperformance persist and money market rates overshadow the appeal of equities.
Exchange-traded funds tied to artificial intelligence have performed well in the first half of 2023, but higher interest rates are causing investors to rethink their positions and consider the potential benefits of industrials in the AI space.
Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 close higher on Monday, while Dow Jones Industrial Average falls slightly; Bank of America analyst predicts insurers will increase customer prices due to increased climate change risk; Allianz economist believes Federal Reserve Chair Powell will focus on short-term monetary policy at Jackson Hole; Loop Capital warns of weak smartphone sales ahead of iPhone 15 launch; CFRA Research chief investment strategist expects year-end rally for stocks despite recession concerns; Homebuilding stocks begin to decline; AMC Entertainment falls ahead of stock conversion; Cybersecurity company SentinelOne explores potential sale; LPL Financial chief technical strategist says recent stock pullback is temporary and predicts end-of-year rally; Jefferies upgrades gold product manufacturer Acushnet Holdings; Nvidia's quarterly earnings report could be critical for the market, says Wolfe Research; Stocks making big moves midday, including XPeng, Eli Lilly, and Marriott Vacations Worldwide.
Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel predicts that the stock market will continue to rise into the end of the year, with the S&P 500 potentially surging 25% and gaining an additional 9% if the Federal Reserve acknowledges falling inflation and refrains from further interest rate hikes.
Stock futures waver ahead of new readings on the U.S. economy, including consumer-confidence and job-openings data, as investors keep an eye on inflation and the August employment report.
Stocks were relatively unchanged as investors awaited new economic indicators and data on the health of the US economy, including consumer confidence, jobs openings, and inflation reports, which could impact expectations for future interest-rate rises from the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 could experience significant gains in the coming months following the end of the current rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve, with historical data showing positive returns after previous cycles and strong economic indicators supporting this trend. Investors are advised to consider investing in an S&P 500 index fund or industry-leading stocks like Amazon.
The fundamentals and technicals support a demographically driven bull market in stocks until 2034, but potential risks include inflation, interest rate-induced debt crisis, and refinancing problems, which could lead to a drop in the stock market. Comparing the S&P 500's score in August 2023 to historical patterns, the market seems confident and not indicating an imminent debt crisis or severe recession. Credit spreads also appear tame compared to previous crisis periods. However, the article notes the possibility of abrupt changes in the market and encourages openness to a wide range of outcomes.
Stock markets showed signs of improvement last week, fueled by hopes of a Goldilocks economic scenario, despite downward revisions in Q2 GDP growth and a slowdown in housing prices, while robust hiring and a decline in wage growth raised concerns about a cooling job market. The strength of U.S. consumers and the moderation of the Consumer Confidence index are factors that could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on inflation, with investors advised to rely on trustworthy data and analysis. Noteworthy upcoming earnings and dividend announcements include Zscaler, Gitlab, GameStop, C3ai, American Eagle, DocuSign, and Kroger. Key economic reports this week will focus on Factory Orders, ISM Services PMI, and Q2 Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
The top 25 stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index in the 35th week of 2023, with tech stocks leading the way, suggesting a return of bull markets and a decrease in recessionary fears; however, market health, the balance between developed and emerging markets, and investor behavior still need to be addressed. Additionally, market correlations have dropped since COVID, and on "down-market" days, correlations are 5% higher than on "up-market" days. Market correlations also decrease during upward economic cycles. Retail investors are showing a preference for dividend-driven investing and investing in AI stocks. The global subsidies race is impacting valuations in tech and leading to supply chain inefficiencies. As a result, there are opportunities for diversification and investment in a wide variety of equities and bonds.
Stock indices finished today’s trading session in the red, with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all falling. The technology sector was the session's laggard, while the utilities sector was the leader. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield increased, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest GDPNow reading estimates that the economy will expand by about 5.6% in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book report, noting a tourism boom but slower spending in other areas. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in higher than expected, and mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since 1996. The U.S. trade deficit widened less than expected in July. U.S. stock futures inched lower, and European indices trended lower. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.
The U.S. equity market faced challenges in August 2023, but analysts believe it may be a good time for retail investors to consider high-quality stocks like The Trade Desk and Pinterest, which have strong growth potential in the programmatic advertising and e-commerce sectors, respectively.
Investors are becoming increasingly nervous due to concerns about the Fed potentially increasing interest rates, as well as rising 10-year interest rates and the VIX, which may put pressure on stocks; however, there are also positive factors emerging, such as improving S&P 500 profit estimates and a shift away from data dependence by Fed officials, which suggests a better finish to September is probable.
U.S. stock investors are closely watching next week's inflation data, which may determine the future of the equity rally, as signs of a soft landing for the U.S. economy have contributed to the S&P 500's gains, but too high inflation could lead to fears of higher interest rates and stock sell-offs.
Despite the pressure on the market, the major US equity indexes have held steady near their recent highs, with the S&P 500 up 16.21% year to date and the Nasdaq Composite up 31.6%, raising questions about whether the current market weakness is due to seasonality or potentially something more significant like inflation.
Investors may want to gain exposure to emerging markets in 2023 due to their high growth potential, the potential for diversification and offsetting of FX impacts, China's policy shifts supporting growth, the ability to compound returns through dividends, and the potential reversal of the MSCI index.
Bank of America predicts that the S&P 500 could surge over 25% within the next year based on a bullish indicator, with low long-term profit growth expectations among analysts signaling potential gains.
Investors are becoming increasingly cautious about the US stock market and the economy as 2023 draws to a close, leading to a more defensive investment approach by Wall Street banks and experts warning of potential pain ahead.
Stock-market strategists are raising their year-end targets for the S&P 500 Index after being largely wrong about this year's rally, but they still expect a market downturn in 2024 despite signs of a strong economy and improving profit outlook.
The Federal Reserve's uncertainty about 2024 is causing concern for the markets.
Investors are more focused on the release of new forecasts from the Federal Reserve, which will reveal their views on the prospect of an economic "soft landing" and the rate environment that will accompany it.
The Federal Reserve plans to continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities, which will have an impact on stock markets, while keeping interest rates at current levels due to the lagged effect of monetary policy and the need for the commercial real estate market to adjust; however, there are concerns about the impact of tighter credit conditions on hiring and an increase in strikes, particularly in the auto industry. Elevated interest rates will pressure dividend-income investors and affect Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), while the reduction of securities by the Fed may lead to a decline in stock indices. The Fed is considering raising rates in November or December but is uncertain about how long rates will remain at current levels. The core personal consumption expenditure is falling, and rising energy prices are increasing overall inflation, but the Fed is excluding energy prices due to volatility and suggests that high oil prices may impact its stance in the future. Stock market traders have a short-term time frame and may find instruments like Instacart (CART) and Arm (ARM) more suitable, while long-term investors should prepare for the market adjusting to the Fed's restrictive policy by moving capital gains into money market funds, considering energy stocks at lower prices, and being cautious of high-flying technology stocks and IPOs.
Michael Santoli, senior markets commentator at CNBC, discusses the outlook for the fixed income market, the state of the economy, and the stock market. He notes that the bond market is starting to register the Federal Reserve's plans to keep rates higher for longer, and that real yields are increasing due to higher inflation expectations and concerns over the size of current federal deficits and Treasury issuance. Santoli also suggests that it is still too early to fully understand the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity gains, and that the recent uptick in headline inflation is not expected to change the Federal Reserve's stance. He also notes that the stock market has been range-bound and indecisive, with some pockets of weakness in consumer cyclicals, but that the market is still pricing in somewhat benign economic conditions. Santoli highlights the concentration of the market in a few mega-cap growth stocks and the undervaluation of small-cap stocks, and discusses the outlook for the 60/40 portfolio in light of higher bond yields.
The S&P 500 is expected to reach a new all-time high by mid-2024 as the Federal Reserve is projected to stop raising interest rates, according to JPMorgan strategist AJ Oden. This forecast suggests a minimum increase of 12% from current levels.
The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance and the sharp tightening of financial conditions have triggered jolts in bonds and stocks, raising questions about investor positioning going into the final quarter of 2023.
A majority of Wall Street investors are concerned about the stock market's gains in 2023 and believe that it could retreat further as the risk for a recession increases.
Bank of America's head of US equity & quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, predicts a bullish case for the final quarter of 2023, stating that there are more bullish indicators for mid and large-cap stocks, including the opportunities in AI and a "renaissance" for US manufacturing, suggesting a recession has been averted; stocks such as Nutanix and Fisker are recommended by analysts at Bank of America as good investment opportunities.
The author discusses the 2024 stock market outlook, including the bull vs. bear debate, the S&P 500's potential performance, and top stock picks for the year.
The fourth quarter of 2023 may be challenging for stocks due to higher rates and a stronger dollar, which could lead to tighter financial conditions and increased volatility in the equity market.
The U.S. stock market has seen a sharp rise in 2023, but the gains have been driven by a small number of technology companies, while the overall market performance has been lackluster compared to previous years, indicating a potential risk for investors.
The major stock indexes are expected to open lower as the 10-year Treasury yield hits a 16-year high, with investors monitoring employment data for potential impact on interest rates; meanwhile, stock futures in Asia and Europe slumped as the Federal Reserve's message of higher interest rates reverberates worldwide.
The S&P 500's stability at the 4,200 level is crucial for determining the continuation of the bull market, with chartists and investors closely monitoring the 200-day moving average and potential implications for long-term trends and investor sentiment.
The latest U.S. Jobs Report shows 336,000 new jobs added in September, exceeding expectations and indicating a strong economy that may lead to another rate hike from the Fed. Higher Treasury yields may result in more volatility in stocks and impact sectors such as mortgages and finance. However, this may also present attractive buying opportunities in beaten-down market sectors. Investors should conduct solid research and diversify their portfolios.
Analysts are optimistic that the stock market will reach new all-time highs in 2024, despite concerns over inflation and rising interest rates, and there are opportunities for investors, although bloated Big Tech valuations may limit further upside for the Nasdaq.
US stocks are expected to open higher as investors await inflation data and Federal Reserve minutes to gain insight into interest rate thinking, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up 0.2% and S&P 500 futures rising 0.2%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that inflation will remain high through 2025 for most central banks, with Europe and the UK experiencing worse inflation than the United States, which has downward-pointing indicators for core inflation; Chief Investment Officer Ahmed Riesgo suggests adding duration to investment portfolios while maintaining cash and T-bills, implementing a barbell strategy in the Treasury curve, and increasing the quality of holdings and factor exposure to quality in equities due to the heightened risk of a US recession in 2024.
Investors are closely monitoring the bond market and September CPI data to determine the Fed's stance on interest rates, with Seema Shah of Principal Asset Management highlighting the circular nature of market reactions to yield spikes and their subsequent declines. She suggests that while there are concerns about upward momentum, the equity market will find comfort in a continued drop in yields and could remain range-bound for the rest of the year. Diversification is recommended as the market narrative remains unclear, and investors may consider waiting until early 2024 for greater clarity on the economy and the Fed's actions.
The U.S. stock market is currently trading at a discount to fair value, and Morningstar expects rates to come down faster due to optimism on inflation; strong growth is projected in Q3, but the economy may slow down in Q4, and inflation is expected to fall in 2023 and reach the Fed's 2% target in 2024. The report also provides outlooks for various sectors, including technology, energy, and utilities, and highlights some top stock picks. The fixed-income outlook suggests that while interest rates may rise in the short term, rates are expected to come down over time, making it a good time for longer-term fixed-income investments. The corporate bond market has outperformed this year, and although bankruptcies and downgrades may increase, investors are still being adequately compensated for the risks.
Corporate earnings will be the focus in the week ahead, with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Tesla, and Netflix reporting, among others, while recent economic data shows cooling inflation and uncertainty remains around future interest rate hikes.
The U.S. economy is facing risks in 2024 as inflation remains high and interest rates are historically high, leading to concerns about a potential recession; however, the Federal Reserve is optimistic about achieving a soft landing and maintaining economic growth. Economists are divided on whether the Fed's measures will be effective in avoiding a severe recession, and investors are advised to proceed cautiously in their financial decisions.
The S&P 500 is experiencing a volatile and uncertain market, causing many investors to give up, but understanding the nature of the volatility and the current strength of the economy can help align portfolios for future gains, especially with GDP estimated to be at 3.5% - 5.4% for Q3 and PCE Inflation expected to drop to 3.1% moving closer to the Fed's 2% target.
