- The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to 5.25% despite a slowdown in consumer-price rises, leading to speculation about when the central bank will end its monetary tightening.
- House prices in Britain fell by 3.8% in July compared to the same month last year, the sharpest decline since July 2009, but the average house price was still higher than earlier this year.
- The Bank of Japan raised its cap on the yield of Japanese ten-year government bonds from 0.5% to 1%, causing the yield to soar to nine-year highs.
- Turkey's annual inflation rate increased to 47.8% in July, the first rise since October, due in part to a new tax on fuel.
- The euro area's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, with much of the growth attributed to changes in intellectual property shifting by multinationals based in Ireland for tax purposes. Germany's GDP growth rate was zero, and Italy's fell by 0.3%.
### Summary
The UK is experiencing mixed economic news, with wage increases, falling inflation, and lower food prices, but core inflation remains high. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates in September. Meanwhile, the government is providing support payments to eligible households, and usual state benefits will be paid in September. The Energy Price Guarantee has expired, and consumers will now pay the Energy Price Cap rate, which has decreased but is still higher than pre-pandemic levels.
### Facts
- 💰 The UK saw wage increases, falling inflation (excluding volatile food and energy prices), and lower food prices in mid-August.
- 💸 Core inflation remains high at 6.9%, indicating that any economic gains may be offset by higher borrowing costs.
- 🏦 The Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates from 5.25% to 5.5% in September to address high inflation.
- 💷 The government is providing support payments to eligible households, including means-tested benefits claimants, people with disabilities, and pensioners.
- 💳 Usual state benefits and pension payments will be delivered as normal in September with no bank holidays.
- 💡 The Energy Price Guarantee has expired, and consumers will now pay the Energy Price Cap rate, which has decreased to £2,074 for Q3 2023.
- ⬇️ Wholesale energy prices have dropped, leading consultancy firm Cornwall Insight to predict further decreases in October. However, prices are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels for the foreseeable future due to geopolitical incidents and the UK's reliance on energy imports.
Vacancies and starting salaries in the UK fell in July for the first time this year, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure in the labor market.
Core inflation in the UK may continue to remain high and volatile due to the implementation of Brexit, discrepancies in wage growth, the direct effects of Brexit on prices, and fiscal policy challenges, which could result in higher and more unpredictable inflation compared to the US and euro area.
Consumer confidence in the US fell in August due to concerns about inflation, reversing the optimism from the past two months, according to The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index.
Australia's inflation rate dropped to its lowest level in 17 months, driven by lower prices for fresh produce and automotive fuel, reducing the likelihood of the Reserve Bank raising interest rates; however, inflation in electricity prices remained high.
European bonds and stocks fell as inflation data suggested that inflation in the euro region may not be fully subsiding, while utilities led the decline in the Stoxx Europe 600 and the German and Spanish inflation data complicated the outlook for European policy makers.
German inflation fell slightly in August, but economists predict that the downward trend will continue in the coming months, with food prices showing above-average growth.
Euro zone inflation in August came in higher than expected at 5.3%, posing a challenge for the European Central Bank as it remains unchanged from the previous month.
British factories in August experienced their weakest month since the start of the COVID-19 crisis due to shrinking orders caused by rising interest rates, according to a survey, resulting in a decline in purchasing activity, inventory holdings, and staffing levels. However, the slowdown in domestic and export demand has alleviated inflation pressures, potentially leading to a decrease in goods price inflation. With the economy showing signs of a slowdown, the Bank of England is expected to raise rates for the 15th consecutive time, despite concerns that it may lead to a recession.
Surging interest rates in the UK have led to a slump in factory output, the biggest annual drop in house prices since the global financial crisis, and signals of distress in different sectors of the economy, posing a dilemma for the Bank of England as it decides whether to raise interest rates further.
UK inflation has slowed to a 17-month low of 6.8%, prompting expectations of potential interest rate cuts and concerns about the impact on house prices and mortgage rates.
The British public's long-term inflation expectations rose in August, posing a challenge for the Bank of England, which is expected to raise interest rates later this month.
Americans' overall views on inflation remained unchanged in August, despite predictions of rising prices for rent, homes, and food, and a downgrade in their personal financial situations, according to the New York Fed's Consumer Sentiment Survey.
British grocery inflation fell to its lowest level in a year in September, with prices rising fastest in products such as eggs, sugar confectionery, and frozen potato products, providing some relief for consumers and the government.
UK gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.5% in July, below expectations, with services output being the main drag on the economy, indicating a potential mild recession, and causing investment banks to revise down their growth forecasts; however, some experts still believe that the economy is growing, albeit at a slower pace.
The Bank of England may raise interest rates to 5.5% this autumn due to inflation remaining above target, potentially putting further financial strain on homeowners, while households on low incomes will receive cost of living support payments from the government totaling up to £1,350 this year, and the Energy Price Cap has dropped again to £1,923 for the final quarter of the year.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% in August, while CPI inflation increased to 3.7% on a year-over-year basis, driven by surging oil prices, but core inflation fell to its lowest level since mid-2021, possibly indicating comfort for the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Inflation is expected to fall below the Federal Reserve's 2% target by late next year, despite a recent rise in consumer prices driven by increased energy costs.
British house prices experienced the most widespread falls in 14 years in August due to weakened demand, high mortgage costs, and economic uncertainty, according to a survey conducted by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone has been revised down to 5.2% for August, but it remains well above the European Central Bank's 2% objective despite a decrease in consumer prices.
UK inflation is projected to average 7.2% in 2023, the highest rate among advanced economies, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which also raised its forecast for UK inflation.
Inflation in Britain slowed for a third consecutive month in August, defying expectations of a rise due to higher fuel prices, with consumer prices rising 6.7 percent compared to the previous year, driven by slower increases in food prices and a decline in hotel room costs. Core inflation also fell more than anticipated, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures, though price growth remains uncomfortably high. The Bank of England is set to announce its decision on interest rates, with growing speculation that rates may be held steady due to signs of slowing inflation and a weak economy.
The Bank of England has paused its interest rate hike campaign and kept the borrowing cost at 5.25% due to unexpectedly falling inflation in August, providing relief to UK households and potentially leading to cuts in mortgage rates. The decision was a close vote and the central bank hinted that borrowing costs would need to remain high for a sustained period to ensure a fall in inflation. Despite this, many analysts expect no further rate hikes.
Australian consumer inflation grew as expected in August, driven by surging energy and housing costs, raising speculation that the Reserve Bank may need to further increase interest rates.
Euro zone annual inflation dropped to its lowest level since October 2021, falling to 4.3% in September, while core inflation decreased to 4.5%, prompting uncertainty over potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation decreased in August, indicating that efforts to combat inflation are progressing, although there are still price growth pressures that could lead to further interest rate hikes by the central bank.
Consumer spending in the US increased by 0.4% in August, while core inflation fell below 4.0% for the first time in over two years, potentially reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
U.S. stocks mostly fell as investors considered the latest inflation data from the Federal Reserve, marking the end of a turbulent month for the market.
Supermarket competition in the UK has led to the first monthly drop in food prices in over two years, with prices down 0.1% in September, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC). The BRC also reported that grocery inflation fell to 9.9% in September, down from 11.5% in August, while overall shop price inflation decreased to 6.2%. Although prices are still rising, the rate of inflation is slowing, providing some relief for households. However, the BRC warned of potential risks such as high interest rates, climbing oil prices, and supply chain disruption.
The UK economy's marginal growth in August has led to expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged next month, with analysts describing the figures as lacklustre and warning of the negative impact of higher borrowing costs and the higher cost of living on consumers and businesses. The economy is currently not in recession but concerns over weak growth persist, making it a key issue in the upcoming election.
Persistently high inflation in the US has led to a 7% decrease in consumer sentiment in October, with concerns over inflation impacting personal finances and expectations for future inflation rising to 3.8%.
Headline inflation is expected to have eased in September, while pay growth is slowing, with economists predicting that annual inflation fell slightly to 6.5% from 6.7% in August, although it still remains well above the Bank of England's 2% target, and the jobs market weakening and reducing the need for employers to increase wages.
Canada's inflation rate dropped to 3.8% in September, allowing the Bank of Canada to maintain its current interest rate.
UK inflation remains unchanged at 6.7% in September, raising doubts over Rishi Sunak's pledge to halve inflation by the end of the year, as rising fuel prices offset the first monthly fall in food prices in two years.
UK inflation unexpectedly holds at 6.7% in September, keeping the possibility of another interest rate hike alive, driven by a rise in petrol prices and robust core inflation and services prices.
