US jobs report, China economy boosters to dictate commodities next week
China's recent stimulus measures to boost its economy, including reducing down payments for homebuyers and lower rates on mortgages, are impressing the markets and may dictate the direction of the commodity market.
Global investors are urging China to increase spending in order to revive its struggling economy and address the deepening property crisis, as modest interest rate cuts and vague promises of support have failed to restore confidence in the market. Investors are demanding more government stimulus before considering a return, and the lack of a policy response from Beijing has raised concerns among fund managers. The wishlist of investors includes increased government spending, particularly for local governments and banks, as well as measures to address the property sector crisis and improve communication regarding private business interests.
China is implementing measures to boost household spending, ease property policies, increase car purchases, improve conditions for private businesses, and bolster financial markets in an effort to revive the economy's recovery and improve the business environment.
There are growing concerns that China's economic growth is slowing, and there are doubts about whether the Chinese government will provide significant stimulus to support its trading partners, including Australia, which heavily relies on China as its top trading partner. China's economic slowdown is attributed to various factors such as trade tensions, demographic changes, a property market slump, and the lack of cash support during COVID-19 restrictions. While some experts remain optimistic that the Chinese government will implement stimulus measures, market sentiment is becoming strained, and patience is wearing thin. The impact on Australia's economy and stock market could be severe, particularly affecting mining companies, banks, construction, tourism, education, and listed fund managers.
China has introduced new mortgage policies to boost its property market and stimulate economic growth by allowing more people to be classified as first-time homebuyers and receive lower mortgage rates.
China's economic policy is being driven by ideology, with leaders hesitant to provide stimulus to the economy out of fear of "welfarism," according to Western experts.
China needs to fully utilize policy space to bolster economic growth and market expectations by making significant adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, according to a senior economist and political adviser. The economist emphasizes the importance of sending strong signals to the market and considers options such as interest rate cuts, increased deficit-to-GDP ratio, and infrastructural improvements to address economic challenges caused by global demand stagnation and tightened US monetary measures.
Asian markets will be influenced by economic indicators, policy steps, and diplomatic signals from China, as well as reacting to the Jackson Hole speeches, purchasing managers index reports, GDP data, and inflation figures throughout the week, with investors desperate for signs of economic improvement as China's industrial profits continue to slump and authorities take measures to stimulate the capital market.
Chinese officials have implemented aggressive measures to address the lack of confidence in the struggling economy, but analysts believe that more stimulus is needed for a sustained market rally and to stabilize the property sector.
China's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits in an effort to stimulate consumer spending and support economic growth; the move is part of the government's targeted measures to alleviate pressure on lenders' profit margins and encourage investment in the stock market.
The improving economic outlook for the US has made gold less appealing to investors, but weakness in US consumers could still lead to a recession and boost the precious metal, while Chinese stimulus may support silver demand, according to Heraeus' precious metals report.
China's economic slowdown is being caused by a property market downturn, softening demand for exports, and low household spending, which poses risks to financial stability and could lead to deflation and deeper debt problems. Economists are uncertain if the government's current measures, like interest rate cuts, will be enough to boost consumption and meet growth targets. Structural reforms and measures to increase household consumption are needed to address the imbalance in the economy.
The authorities in Beijing and Shanghai are implementing measures to ease mortgage lending rules in an effort to stimulate a slowing housing market, including allowing first-home buyers to enjoy preferential mortgage rates regardless of their previous credit records. This move is expected to drive home sales in the short term, but the long-term impact is uncertain due to low consumer confidence in the face of economic uncertainty.
China's trade and inflation data for the week are expected to show a fragile economic recovery, leading policymakers to consider further stimulus measures, although the effects of recent policy measures may take some time to be reflected in the data.
Asian stock markets rise on the belief that the Federal Reserve has finished raising U.S. interest rates and hopes that policy stimulus from Beijing will stabilize the Chinese economy, while trading remains thin due to a U.S. holiday.
Equities rose on Monday as market participants speculated that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its interest rate hike cycle, following a positive US jobs report and signs of a softening labor market. Additionally, investors were hopeful that China would implement measures to stimulate its economy and property sector.
Global stocks rise as a Chinese rebound, prompted by eased mortgage rules, boosts the country's struggling property sector. Goldman Sachs predicts more stimulus to come.
China is considering further easing measures in the property market and increasing fiscal support for infrastructure investment to boost economic growth in the fourth quarter, as sluggish demand remains a challenge.
China's measures to support the property sector are lowering monthly mortgage payments for homeowners but also reducing interest earnings on bank deposits, highlighting the challenge of promoting consumer spending in a weak economic climate.
Asian markets are expected to be on the defensive due to sagging stocks and rising oil prices, as investors await U.S. inflation figures that will impact the Fed's rate decision; China's real estate sector is seen as the most likely source of a global systemic credit event.
China's economy is facing challenges due to its real estate crisis and high levels of mortgage debt, but the government is hesitant to provide fiscal stimulus or redistribute wealth, instead aiming to rely on lending to avoid a potential recession. Banks have cut interest rates and reserve requirements, but it is unlikely to stimulate borrowing. However, economists predict that policymakers will intensify efforts in the coming months, such as changing the definition of first-time home buyers and implementing property easing measures, to address the economic downturn.
A retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing China's global market influence and accelerating its decoupling from the rest of the world, due to economic concerns, tensions with the West, and a property market crisis.
Signs of improvement in China's economy, such as improving credit demand and easing deflationary pressures, may not be enough to stabilize the economy due to bigger concerns of decreasing affordability, tight wages, and rising costs that have not been addressed. A comprehensive policy revamp may be necessary for China's economy to recover.
China's credit is expanding rapidly, with total social financing increasing by over 3 trillion yuan in August, mainly driven by government financing, indicating positive signs of economic stabilization and recovery from the slump in the second quarter. Additionally, recent policy measures, particularly in fiscal and property sectors, are expected to further stimulate the economy.
China is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rates as oil prices rise and market sentiment is affected; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, Japan's trade data, and the United Nations General Assembly will also influence Asian markets.
