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US Inflation Forecast to Rise in August While Core CPI Falls; Impact on Fed Policy and Bitcoin Price

  • US inflation forecast to rise to 3.6% in August from 3.2% in July, yearly basis
  • Core CPI forecast to fall to 4.3% from 4.7% in July, yearly basis
  • Rise due to energy prices, other price pressures easing in US
  • CPI data will impact Fed decision-making ahead of next week's FOMC
  • Bitcoin price unlikely to be impacted unless core CPI surprises
  • Upside surprise could push Bitcoin below $24,578 support
  • Downside surprise could continue BTC recovery above $26,430
fxstreet.com
Relevant topic timeline:
The cryptocurrency market is preparing for a potential larger financial event in September that could significantly impact Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and the wider digital asset landscape.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a slip in price after key inflation data, causing concerns for the upcoming month of September, which has historically been challenging for Bitcoin.
Consumer prices in the US rose 0.2% from the previous month, and 3.3% annually, indicating persistent high inflation and posing a challenge to the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb it; core prices, which exclude food and energy, also increased 0.2% from the previous month and 4.2% from the previous year.
Bitcoin and crypto could experience significant growth in the next few months, with September expected to be a particularly eventful period, including the potential impact of U.S. bitcoin ETF filings and China declaring crypto as "legal property and protected by law."
The United States Federal Reserve's financial woes and potential implications for cryptocurrency are discussed on the latest episode of "Macro Markets," highlighting challenges posed by inflation and the consequences of loose monetary policies during the pandemic.
The article discusses how the rate of inflation has impacted processors, distributors, and other middlemen, with some benefiting from price increases but now at risk of a slowdown.
Bitcoin's weak performance and its potential "double top" structure raise concerns of more downside, with predictions of new local lows; however, there are indications that Bitcoin may experience a major shakeout before rebounding to "fair value" and the 200-week EMA near $25,600 may offer some optimism; debate ensues over the possibility of Bitcoin filling the $20,000 CME futures gap; liquidity levels on BTC/USD markets continue to increase, adding to bearish predictions; ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on September 14 brings potential volatility to the market and may impact crypto market expectations.
Investors and the Federal Reserve will have to wait for inflation to return to acceptable levels, as the Consumer Price Index report for August 2023 shows consumer prices rising at half the pace compared to a year ago, despite a jump in gas prices.
This week's main events include the release of the consumer price index for August, an Apple iPhone-unveiling event, and a European Central Bank interest-rate decision.
The crypto market is expected to experience increased volatility due to economic events such as the downward revision of economic growth forecasts for the eurozone and the looming FTX liquidation, as well as the release of crucial inflation data in the US.
The Consumer Price Index is expected to show an increase in inflation in August, with headline inflation rising to 3.6% and core inflation easing to 4.4%, but the market is accustomed to this trend and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its rates at the upcoming meeting.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies have been experiencing a steady decline in prices due to concerns from the Federal Reserve, leading to warnings of a potential price crash, although some analysts remain hopeful for improvement.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the August consumer price index (CPI) will show a 3.58% annual increase, with a decline in used car prices, higher airfares and transportation prices, and stable shelter inflation.
U.S. consumer prices are expected to have increased the most in 14 months in August due to rising gasoline costs, while underlying inflation is forecasted to remain moderate, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady.
Bitcoin trades at $25,933, up 0.66% as U.S. CPI data is anticipated to show a small increase in August, driven by rising oil prices, while digital assets remain stable due to short covering and liquidity crunch, although a sustained bullish momentum is yet to be seen; meanwhile, the price of CRV token falls by 3.3% following negative events and selling pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) experiences volatility following a higher-than-expected CPI report, with traders wary of the Wall Street open and inflation concerns.
The recent increase in interest rates has impacted the price of bitcoin, with factors like opportunity cost, risk sentiment, and inflation expectations playing a role.
Despite claims by the Biden administration and corporate media that inflation is decreasing, the latest consumer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that Americans paid 3.7 percent more for basic consumer items in August compared to the previous year.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced fluctuations following the release of U.S. inflation data, signaling a potential impact of higher interest rates on digital currencies.
Cryptocurrency prices remained stable as inflation in the U.S. surpassed economists' expectations, with Bitcoin trading at around $26,100 and Ethereum experiencing a slight dip of 0.5%. The Federal Reserve will consider this report, among other factors, for its upcoming interest rate announcement on September 20. While inflation has decreased since June, it still exceeds the Fed's target of 2% annually. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy costs, decreased to 4.3% in August compared to July's 4.7%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for this month shows that core CPI and all items CPI were slightly above expectations and accelerating, with the primary contributors to the acceleration being core services ex housing and energy, which may be a concern for the Fed. Additionally, owner's equivalent rent was a significant positive contributor to the monthly change in CPI, while used cars and trucks had a negative impact. There is potential for a re-acceleration of inflation, which could have negative implications for equity markets.
Health insurance inflation is difficult to measure due to the variations in quality and benefits among different policies, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics indirectly calculates it based on health insurers' profits, which will result in a rise in health insurance prices in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) starting in October 2022, potentially impacting inflation rates and Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have seen a rise in price as traders anticipate a potential macroeconomic catalyst that could lead to a significant movement in the market.
Bitcoin, ethereum, BNB, and XRP have experienced a strong price rally in 2023, but a small cryptocurrency has surpassed them, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions could impact the bitcoin price.
The positive momentum surrounding Bitcoin's price is fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates again this year, while market participants remain optimistic despite the strength of the United States Dollar Index.
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and raise its long-term forecast for the Federal Funds Rate surprised many market participants, causing a slight pullback in the stock and cryptocurrency markets while highlighting the need for investors to focus on the actual health and viability of companies and the utility of the crypto ecosystem. Additionally, the article speculates on the impact of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's ruling on Bitcoin spot ETF applications and the potential for cryptocurrency to become a mainstream alternative investment.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a decline in prices due to a strengthening dollar and risk-aversion, but there is hope for a rebound.
Crypto market volatility is expected to increase as several key economic events take place this week, including the Federal Reserve chair's speech and the release of GDP and inflation figures, which could have a bearish impact on the market.
Investors are focusing on the release of economic reports on GDP and inflation as they evaluate the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and its efforts to cool down inflation. Metal prices have slipped due to concerns over global demand and the economy, and the risk of a government shutdown is also adding to the bearish sentiment. Earnings reports from various companies and core PCE inflation data are expected in the week ahead.
Bitcoin price is expected to move higher and may attempt to push toward the 50% retracement level, while Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on September 28 may hint at another potential rate hike and the PCE Price Index on September 29 is unlikely to have a significant impact on the crypto markets, with the SEC likely to delay the approval of Hashdex's filing for the spot Bitcoin ETFs and the potential approval of the first Ethereum futures ETF on October 2.
Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are anticipating a potential surge in price due to a "worst-case" scenario from the Federal Reserve, according to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation decreased in August, indicating that efforts to combat inflation are progressing, although there are still price growth pressures that could lead to further interest rate hikes by the central bank.
Consumer spending in the US increased by 0.4% in August, while core inflation fell below 4.0% for the first time in over two years, potentially reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve and oil prices are in focus this week as the economic calendar remains busy, while the crypto market has experienced a surge in momentum over the weekend, with Bitcoin reaching its highest level since August 17.
Bitcoin's sharp rally on October 1 may have been influenced by a temporary agreement reached by US legislators to avert a government shutdown, combined with the historically strong performance of Bitcoin in October, while the US stock markets are also in a favorable position this month. However, the rising US dollar index could pose a challenge for the bulls in the cryptocurrency markets.
Bitcoin's price is increasing despite a mixed market for cryptocurrencies and spiking bond yields.
Investors in the week ahead will focus on the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, third quarter earnings reports from companies like Pepsi, Delta, and JPMorgan, and insights from the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects consumer price index (CPI) inflation to ease below 4 percent in fiscal 2024-25 if there are no further shocks and a normal monsoon, with the central bank rethinking rate cuts only if CPI inflation remains at or below 4 percent on a durable basis.
The September CPI report is expected to show that inflation remains above the Fed's target, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike and raising inflation expectations for 2023, potentially leading to further upside risk to rates from Treasury auctions.
Both the consumer and producer prices indices are set to be released this week, providing investors with another look at US inflation data, with expectations of a gradual decrease in inflation as crude oil and gasoline prices drop. Additionally, the impact of weight loss drugs on grocery sales is being monitored, with companies like Walmart and Coca-Cola experiencing fluctuations in stock prices.
The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September is expected to show cooling core inflation despite a rise in headline inflation, with the Federal Reserve closely monitoring the data to assess whether inflation is moving closer to its 2% annual goal.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2023 is expected to show a slow increase in prices, with market expectations forecasting a 0.3% increase in core inflation on a monthly basis and 4.1% on a yearly basis, which may lead to stronger market reactions if the figures exceed expectations. Banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America have provided their predictions for the upcoming CPI report. Analysts suggest that if the core CPI exceeds 0.1% on a monthly basis, it could lead to a decline in the stock market as it may indicate a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This data is particularly significant as it precedes the FOMC meeting scheduled for October 31-November 1.
The U.S. government's upcoming inflation report is expected to show a cooling off of inflation, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, and core inflation expected to be up 4.1% from September last year, indicating slower price increases in September than in August.
The upcoming monthly inflation report is expected to show that inflation in the US is cooling off, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, indicating slower price increases in September than in August. However, if the report reveals that inflation remained higher than expected, especially in core areas, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, further slowing the economy.