### Summary
The blog emphasizes that the war on inflation has been won, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 12-month inflation rate of +3.3%. However, BLS's imputation of shelter costs using lagged data means that the CPI would be significantly below the Fed's target of 2%. The market believes that the current Fed Funds rate will remain unchanged for the rest of the year.
### Facts
- The economists at three Regional Federal Reserve Banks believe that a recession is coming, despite the official forecast of "no recession" from the Fed. The probability of recession is higher than during the last two recessions.
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) have been negative for 16 consecutive months, which has a 100% track record in predicting recessions.
- The freight industry is experiencing a recession, with the Cass Freight Index down -8.9% over the year. Housing is also struggling, with mortgage loan applications at 30-year lows and significant declines in new and existing home sales.
- Seasonally adjusted retail sales for July were +0.7%, but the actual raw data fell -0.4% from June to July. The weak data suggests a different story than what the seasonally adjusted numbers portray.
- Home Depot, Target, and Walmart reported lower Q2 revenues, with general merchandise sales at Walmart contracting.
- Industrial Production rose 1.0% in July, driven by utility output and auto production. However, the seasonal adjustment may be questionable.
- Inflation rates in developed countries are just above 2%, with China experiencing deflation. One-year inflation expectations are rapidly falling, which is positive for controlling inflation.
- China's economy is faltering, with industrial production and retail sales declining. Q2 real GDP growth is anemic, and the crisis in the real estate sector is worsening. China's struggles will have a negative impact on the global economy and its major trading partners.
### Emoji
- 📉: Recession
- 📊: Economic indicators
- 🚂: Freight industry
- 🏘️: Housing market
- 🛍️: Retail sales
- 🏭: Industrial production
- 💰: Inflation
- 🇨🇳: China's economy
- 📉💼: Global economy
### Summary
The stock market and house prices are at risk of crashing, while Bitcoin has already fallen. Investors are concerned about rising interest rates, the Chinese property market's instability, and the overall economic outlook.
### Facts
- The S&P 500 and FTSE 100 indexes have been declining, with the S&P 500 falling four percent over the last month and the FTSE 100 showing minimal progress.
- The Evergrande Group, a major Chinese property giant, has filed for bankruptcy with significant liabilities, adding to concerns about the Chinese economy.
- Youth unemployment in China is high and predictions of a crash worsen unless massive stimulus packages are implemented.
- The UK property market is uncertain, with predictions of a potential 25 percent crash in house prices due to disappointing inflation figures and potential interest rate hikes.
- Bitcoin has already experienced a ten percent drop in the last week, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market.
- The copper price, often used as an economic indicator, has fallen 12.64 percent over the last six months, suggesting an economic slowdown.
### Other Points
- Experts like Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham are predicting a stock market crash, with Grantham even comparing it to the 1929 Wall Street Crash.
- It is important not to put too much trust in doomsayers, as they have often been wrong in the past.
- The author of the article is personally feeling gloomy about the economic outlook.
### Summary
The Chinese economy has slipped into deflationary mode, with retail sales, industrial production, and exports all missing forecasts. Shrinking domestic demand and a debt-fueled housing crisis are the main causes behind this slowdown.
### Facts
- 📉 Retail sales in July grew by 2.5% year-on-year, compared to 3.1% in June.
- 🏭 Value-added industrial output expanded by 3.7% y-o-y, slowing from 4.4% growth in June.
- 📉 China's exports fell by 14.5% in July compared to the previous year, and imports dropped 12.4%.
- 💼 Overall unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in July, with youth unemployment at a record 21.3% in June.
- 📉 Consumer Price Index-based inflation dropped to (-)0.3%, indicating a deflationary situation.
- 🏢 China's debt is estimated at 282% of GDP, higher than that of the US.
### Causes of the slowdown
- The debt-fueled housing sector collapse, which contributes to 30% of China's GDP.
- Stringent zero-Covid strategy and lockdown measures that stifled the domestic economy and disrupted global supply chains.
- Geopolitical tensions and crackdowns on the tech sector, resulting in revenue losses and job cuts.
### Reaction of global markets
- The S&P 500 fell 1.2% following the grim Chinese data.
- US Treasury Secretary warns China's slowing economy is a risk factor for the US economy.
- Japanese stocks and the Indian Nifty were also impacted.
- China's central bank cut its benchmark lending rate, but investors were hoping for more significant stimulus measures.
### Global market concerns
- China's struggle to achieve the 5% growth target may impact global demand.
- China is the world's largest manufacturing economy and consumer of key commodities.
- A slowdown in China could affect global growth, with the IMF's forecast of 35% growth contribution by China seeming unlikely.
### Impact on India
- India's aim to compete with China in the global supply chain could benefit if Chinese exports decline.
- However, if China cuts back on commodity production due to slowing domestic demand, it may push commodity prices higher.
The US banking industry could face a significant drop in stock prices within the next 16 months if the economy enters a recession, according to macro guru Hugh Hendry.
Copper is caught between the old Chinese super-cycle and the new energy transition super-cycle, with fund managers uncertain about the direction it will take.
A global recession is looming due to rising interest rates and the cost of living crisis, leading economists to warn of a severe downturn in the post-Covid rebound.
Bitcoin prices experienced a sudden drop last week, with analysts attributing it to large liquidations of perpetual futures and a report that SpaceX had sold the cryptocurrency, while industry insiders have mixed opinions on the impact of spot bitcoin ETFs and Coinbase's investment in Circle.
China's unexpected economic slowdown, driven by excessive investment in the property sector and local government spending, is leading experts to question whether a collapse is imminent, although they believe a sudden collapse is unlikely due to China's controlled financial system; however, the slowdown will have implications for global growth and emerging markets, particularly if the U.S. enters a recession next year.
China's commodities sector, including coal mining and metals production, is experiencing declining profits due to the worsening property crisis and economic slowdown, with steel producers being the hardest hit. However, there is potential for growth in metals firms linked to the energy transition, particularly in China's green copper consumption driven by electric vehicles and renewable power.
Copper prices may experience a significant price spike over the next three years due to its critical role in electric vehicle batteries and other green energy technologies, making it a potential alternative to oil as the world moves away from fossil fuels.
Bitcoin could experience a major market correction in September, potentially dropping by more than 16% based on historical performance and predictions by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.
Bitcoin's price dropped below $26,000 as the approval of a Bitcoin ETF was further delayed by the SEC, reversing the bullish gains from the Grayscale court decision earlier in the week. The crypto market also experienced a decline, with Ethereum's price going down by 3.5% and the overall market cap losing $11.2 billion. However, Maker and Toncoin managed to resist the bearish trend with positive gains. The global macroeconomic landscape also added to the uncertainty, as key economic data raised doubts about a potential interest rate hike.
The U.S. dollar declined due to weaknesses in economic growth, leading to a boost in the performance of gold and U.S. equities, while other global assets experienced mixed price movements throughout the week.
Disappointing economic data in Asia-Pacific markets, overinvestment in China, and Chinese electric vehicle companies expanding in Europe are among the key factors impacting global markets, while the price of bitcoin remains volatile with conflicting predictions about its future.
China's economy is showing signs of slowing down, including a decrease in GDP growth rate, declining exports, deflationary consumer price index, high youth unemployment, a weakening yuan, and a decrease in new loans, which could have global implications.
There are indications that a severe economic contraction may be approaching in the US, with a significant decline in home sales and rising interest rates, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies have been experiencing a steady decline in prices due to concerns from the Federal Reserve, leading to warnings of a potential price crash, although some analysts remain hopeful for improvement.
Bitcoin price may experience a 10% drop before its next move upwards, while Ethereum could follow suit and fall by 10% as well, and Ripple's price is poised for a significant move after breaking a major trendline.
The leading economic indicator dropped 0.4% in August, marking the 17th consecutive month of decline, but there is no indication of a recession in the U.S.
The Canadian economy has entered a long-delayed recession due to highly indebted households, overvalued home prices, and a slowdown in consumer spending, with the recession expected to last until the first quarter of 2024 and result in a 1.5% decline in GDP and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2%.
US small-cap and industrial stocks are dropping, typically signaling a recession, but some investors are dismissing the moves as noise for now, with hope for stocks coming in the form of anticipated earnings season and the Federal Reserve's forecast of stronger economic growth.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are experiencing a drop in value as they approach key price levels, while also facing potential macroeconomic catalysts in the near future.
Gold and silver prices are slightly down as U.S. Treasury yields rise, the U.S. dollar index remains high, and traders and investors anticipate a potential U.S. government shutdown.
The spread between copper spot prices and futures prices for delivery three months out has reached its widest level since 1994, indicating weakening demand and potential economic trouble, largely due to the impact of declining Chinese economy and falling global trade.
The US stock markets broke a four-day losing streak with gains in energy and materials sectors, while the Asian markets saw losses with technology stocks declining and concerns about China's property market stability. European markets opened in the red, awaiting economic data and earnings reports. Crude oil and natural gas prices decreased, while gold, silver, and copper prices fell. US futures and the US dollar index were down.
The strength of the US dollar and rising bond yields are causing gold prices to fall to their lowest level since March, with some analysts predicting that the bearish momentum could push prices down further to their 2023 lows at $1,810 in the spot market.
Fidelity Investments' global macro director believes that a recession could lead to a significant rally for Bitcoin, with the potential for prices to reach $96,210 by the end of 2025 if interest rates decline. He also suggests that Bitcoin's correlation with equities has decreased, making it a potential source of uncorrelated returns in the next market cycle.
The US may be at risk of a recession due to factors such as a potential auto strike, the resumption of student-loan repayments, rising oil prices, and a global economic slowdown.
Summary: Oil prices drop over 2% as a result of a strong U.S. dollar, profit-taking, inflationary concerns, and forecasts of increasing supply, as well as the World Bank's forecast of slower Chinese growth.
Gold and silver prices continue to decline due to a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, with both metals reaching new lows and experiencing a downward trend, while the stock market sell-off is limiting losses and generating some safe-haven demand.
Falling bond prices in the US, resulting in higher Treasury yields, suggest that a recession might be approaching, according to investor Jeff Gundlach, who is closely watching the upcoming jobs report for further signs.
Precious metals prices have been declining recently due to the higher interest rate projections by the Federal Reserve, but the weakness in gold prices may also be influenced by China's internal market dynamics and its impact on global gold prices.
Bitcoin could potentially face a 60% price drop, as liquidity remains negative and global rates continue to rise, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone. He also suggests that a stock market drawdown related to a recession poses the biggest risk for the overall cryptocurrency sector.
The likelihood of the US avoiding a recession has decreased, as two factors, including a surge in interest rates and the potential for resurgent inflation, could push the economy into a downturn, says economist Mohamed El-Erian.
The price of copper has fallen to a four-month low due to weakened demand from China, raising concerns about the global economy.
The copper market is expected to shift from a supply-demand balance to a significant supply surplus next year, driven by weak Western demand and strong Chinese production, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
Bitcoin could potentially drop by more than 46% if there is a recession caused by the Federal Reserve's actions, according to crypto analyst Nicholas Merten.
The lack of copper mines under development and weakening demand due to slowing global manufacturing could hinder the pace of energy transitions, according to industry executives, despite expectations for high long-term copper demand driven by the energy transition push.
Economists are predicting that the U.S. economy is less likely to experience a recession in the next year, with the likelihood dropping below 50% for the first time since last year, thanks to factors such as falling inflation, the Federal Reserve halting interest rate hikes, and a strong labor market.
Chinese copper markets show signs of recovery from the second quarter slump as clean concentrate spot TCs decline due to increased demand for cargoes and cathode import interest improves on tighter spot supplies.
Wall Street economists and the Federal Reserve have lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, citing declining inflation, a stable Federal Reserve, and strong economic growth, but this optimism is based on lagging economic data and fails to consider the potential negative revisions in the future.
