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Euro Zone Inflation Falls to 4.3% as ECB Rate Hikes Slow Prices but Risk Recession

  • Euro zone inflation fell to 4.3% in September, the lowest in 2 years, suggesting ECB rate hikes are slowing prices but hurting growth.

  • Inflation drop was broad-based across categories, with energy prices falling for 5th straight month.

  • Falling German import prices and retail sales signal possible euro zone recession from rate hikes.

  • ECB has raised rates rapidly from -0.5% to 4% in just over a year to curb inflation.

  • ECB sticking to forecast of economic rebound in 2023 despite signs of slowing growth.

reuters.com
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### Summary The Czech Republic's inflation rate dropped to 10.2% in July, although it still ranks fourth among EU nations with the highest inflation rates. ### Facts - 💰 The Czech Republic's inflation rate dropped to 10.2% in July, but it remains one of the EU nations with the highest inflation rates. - 🇪🇺 The European Union as a whole saw a moderate drop in year-on-year inflation rate from 6.4% to 6.1% in July. - 💹 The eurozone's inflation declined slightly from 5.5% to 5.3% in July. - 📉 Inflation rates in the EU spiked last summer due to a surge in energy prices, reaching 9.8% for the EU and just under 9% for the eurozone. - 📊 Among EU nations, Belgium had the lowest year-on-year inflation rate at 1.7%, while Hungary had the highest at 17.5%. - 🌡️ In a month-on-month comparison, consumer prices in the EU remained stagnant in July, with a marginal 0.1% decline in the eurozone. - 💶 The European Central Bank continues to face the challenge of persistently high inflation and has implemented nine consecutive interest rate hikes since July 2020. - ⚖️ The Czech Republic has also maintained a similar strategy, keeping its base interest rate at 7% in an attempt to curb inflation and attract foreign investors.
It may be too early for the European Central Bank to pause interest rate hikes now as an early stop in the fight against inflation could result in more pain for the economy later, according to Latvian policymaker Martins Kazaks.
President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that interest rates in the European Union will need to remain high to combat inflation, despite progress being made, emphasizing the challenges posed by disruptions in the global and European economies.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain high interest rates for as long as necessary to combat persistent inflation, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde, amid efforts to manage a stagnating economy; however, the ECB is also considering longer-term economic changes that may contribute to sustained inflation pressures.
Euro zone growth is weaker than predicted, but the need for more rate hikes by the European Central Bank is not automatically voided, according to ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, who raised concerns about investors undoing the ECB's past work and the decline in real risk-free rates counteracting efforts to bring inflation back to target.
Euro zone inflation in August came in higher than expected at 5.3%, posing a challenge for the European Central Bank as it remains unchanged from the previous month.
Euro zone inflation holds steady in August, but underlying price growth falls, complicating decisions for the European Central Bank as it considers a pause in rate hikes amid a slowdown in economic growth.
Consumer prices in the eurozone rose 5.3% on average this month compared to last year, with core inflation easing to 5.3%, potentially increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates.
Eurozone inflation remains at 5.3%, leading analysts to speculate that the ECB may consider pausing its interest rate hikes in light of a slowing economy.
UK inflation has slowed to a 17-month low of 6.8%, prompting expectations of potential interest rate cuts and concerns about the impact on house prices and mortgage rates.
Central banks across major developed and emerging economies took a breather in August with lower interest rate hikes amid diverging growth outlooks and inflation risks, while some countries like Brazil and China cut rates, and others including Turkey and Russia raised rates to combat currency weakness and high inflation.
Inflation has decreased significantly in recent months, but the role of the Federal Reserve in this decline is questionable as there is little evidence to suggest that higher interest rates led to lower prices and curtailed demand or employment. Other factors such as falling energy prices and the healing of disrupted supply chains appear to have had a larger impact on slowing inflation.
Annual core inflation in Mexico slowed to a 20-month low in August, below market forecasts, as the central bank maintains high interest rates to curb price increases.
The European Central Bank faces a difficult decision on whether or not to hike rates as the economy slows, while the US releases inflation numbers and rising oil prices create concerns about price pressures.
The euro zone's economy is expected to grow slower than previously forecasted due to high inflation and Germany slipping into recession, according to the European Commission.
Brazil's annual inflation in August was lower than expected, giving the central bank more leeway to extend interest rate cuts at their upcoming policy meeting.
The European Central Bank is expected to see inflation in the euro zone remain above 3% next year, which strengthens the case for an interest rate increase.
The European Central Bank is facing a dilemma on whether to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation or hold off due to economic deterioration, with investors split on the likelihood of a rate hike.
The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates, but traders believe that any immediate risk to the euro is likely to be on the downside, and if there is a hike, it will likely be the last.
The European Central Bank has implemented its 10th consecutive interest rate increase in an attempt to combat high inflation, although there are concerns that higher borrowing costs could lead to a recession; however, the increase may have a negative impact on consumer and business spending, particularly in the real estate market.
The European Central Bank has raised key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to help bring down inflation, although the economy is expected to remain weak for a while before slowly recovering in the coming years.
The European Central Bank has raised its main interest rate for the 10th consecutive time to tackle inflation, but indicated that further hikes may be paused for now, causing the euro to fall and European stocks to rally.
The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone has been revised down to 5.2% for August, but it remains well above the European Central Bank's 2% objective despite a decrease in consumer prices.
Inflation in Britain slowed for a third consecutive month in August, defying expectations of a rise due to higher fuel prices, with consumer prices rising 6.7 percent compared to the previous year, driven by slower increases in food prices and a decline in hotel room costs. Core inflation also fell more than anticipated, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures, though price growth remains uncomfortably high. The Bank of England is set to announce its decision on interest rates, with growing speculation that rates may be held steady due to signs of slowing inflation and a weak economy.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but left room for potential rate hikes, as they see progress in fighting inflation and aim to bring it down to the target level of 2 percent; however, officials projected a higher growth rate of 2.1 percent for this year and suggested that core inflation will hit 3.7 percent this year before falling in 2024 and reaching the target range by 2026.
Sweden's central bank has raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive time to combat high inflation, as the country's economy shows signs of improvement, while Norway's central bank also opted to raise rates and signaled the likelihood of another hike in December.
Central banks around the world may have reached the peak of interest rate hikes in their effort to control inflation, as data suggests that major economies have turned a corner on price rises and core inflation is declining in the US, UK, and EU. However, central banks remain cautious and warn that rates may need to remain high for a longer duration, and that oil price rallies could lead to another spike in inflation. Overall, economists believe that the global monetary policy tightening cycle is nearing its end, with many central banks expected to cut interest rates in the coming year.
High inflation continues to pose challenges for central banks in Europe as some opt to pause interest rate hikes after nearly two years, leading to speculation on how long rates will remain at current levels and how to balance slowing economies, persistent inflationary pressures, and the delayed impact of rate hikes.
Despite predictions of higher unemployment and dire consequences, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have succeeded in substantially slowing inflation without causing significant harm to the job market and economy.
The head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that interest rates will remain high to combat inflation, despite acknowledging the impact it has on homeowners with variable interest rate mortgages, as upward pressure on prices persists in the eurozone.
Germany's inflation rate in September slowed to the lowest level since Russia invaded Ukraine, potentially leading the European Central Bank to reconsider its interest rate hikes.
Euro zone annual inflation dropped to its lowest level since October 2021, falling to 4.3% in September, while core inflation decreased to 4.5%, prompting uncertainty over potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation decreased in August, indicating that efforts to combat inflation are progressing, although there are still price growth pressures that could lead to further interest rate hikes by the central bank.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman suggests that further interest rate hikes may be necessary to bring inflation back to the central bank's target of 2%, despite recent data showing slower price increases.
The European Central Bank's cycle of interest rate hikes has likely ended, according to ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno, as inflation in the euro zone is declining faster than it rose.
The European Central Bank's policy, as stated by President Christine Lagarde, aims to bring inflation to 2% and avoid an inflationary spiral, while maintaining a cautious but optimistic outlook on short-term growth prospects.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised its key interest rates for the tenth consecutive time in response to a series of crises and the need for price stability, although the rise has caused concerns about the level of interest rates and their impact on growth; ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasizes the need to make inflation projections more robust and to communicate effectively with the public to counter misinformation.
Global monetary policy is expected to transition from a period of low interest rates to rate cuts by the beginning of 2024, with only a few central banks anticipated to maintain steady rates, according to Bloomberg Economics. The forecast signals a turning point in the tightening cycle and suggests that the era of ultra-low rates will not return anytime soon. The report also highlights a slower pace of descent compared to the initial rate hikes that led to the higher borrowing costs.
The failure of UK inflation to decrease despite rate hikes suggests that raising interest rates may not be an effective solution to tackle cost-push inflation caused by rising production costs rather than excessive demand, and coordination between central banks to lower rates may be a more appropriate approach.
The European Central Bank is facing challenges in managing inflation and determining the timing of future rate hikes, while also considering the impact of rising energy prices and the possibility of tightening financing conditions.
U.S. inflation slowdown is a trend, not a temporary blip, according to Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee, who believes the downward trend will continue and hopes that it does, while also expressing concern over rising oil prices and possible economic disruptions in the Middle East; Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni suggests the Fed is likely done with interest rate hikes and may reach its 2% inflation target by early 2025, with a low probability of rate hikes in November or December; Philadelphia Fed Reserve President Patrick Harker believes interest rates can remain untouched if economic conditions continue on their current path, as disinflation is taking shape and the Fed's interest rate policy is filtering into the economy; Mortgage rates have been affected by the federal government's increasing spending and smaller revenues, leading to a heavier impact on mortgage rates this fall.
The European Central Bank will likely keep interest rates unchanged as it considers a quicker reduction of its government debt portfolio to combat inflation and a possible recession, shifting the focus to when rates should be cut rather than raised.
The European Central Bank maintains interest rates amid concerns about a weak economy and slowing inflation, with President Christine Lagarde suggesting that it is too early to discuss rate cuts.
The rate of U.S. inflation is slowing, but it's not slowing as quickly as earlier this year, with the Federal Reserve expecting a 0.3% increase in the core PCE price gauge in September, indicating that progress towards the Fed's 2% inflation target will likely happen at a much slower rate in the months ahead.
High inflation is expected to persist in the global economy next year, posing a risk of interest rates remaining higher for longer than anticipated, according to a Reuters poll of economists. While some central banks were initially predicted to start cutting rates by mid-2024, the survey suggests that a growing number of economists are now pushing the more likely date into the second half of next year.