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ECB Upgrades Inflation Outlook, Strengthening Case for Further Rate Hikes

  • ECB's new 2024 inflation projection to be above 3%, higher than previous forecast of 2.7%

  • Projection strengthens case for another rate hike at this week's meeting

  • Inflation remaining elevated risks higher wage demands and price spiral

  • Growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 to be downgraded

  • Rate decision still seen as close call, formal proposals not yet presented

  • ECB has hiked rates fastest on record to tame inflation, but it remains above 5%

reuters.com
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### Summary The Czech Republic's inflation rate dropped to 10.2% in July, although it still ranks fourth among EU nations with the highest inflation rates. ### Facts - 💰 The Czech Republic's inflation rate dropped to 10.2% in July, but it remains one of the EU nations with the highest inflation rates. - 🇪🇺 The European Union as a whole saw a moderate drop in year-on-year inflation rate from 6.4% to 6.1% in July. - 💹 The eurozone's inflation declined slightly from 5.5% to 5.3% in July. - 📉 Inflation rates in the EU spiked last summer due to a surge in energy prices, reaching 9.8% for the EU and just under 9% for the eurozone. - 📊 Among EU nations, Belgium had the lowest year-on-year inflation rate at 1.7%, while Hungary had the highest at 17.5%. - 🌡️ In a month-on-month comparison, consumer prices in the EU remained stagnant in July, with a marginal 0.1% decline in the eurozone. - 💶 The European Central Bank continues to face the challenge of persistently high inflation and has implemented nine consecutive interest rate hikes since July 2020. - ⚖️ The Czech Republic has also maintained a similar strategy, keeping its base interest rate at 7% in an attempt to curb inflation and attract foreign investors.
Greece's inflation rate rose to 3.5% in July, but it still remains the sixth lowest among EU members, with higher inflation rates observed in other countries such as Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain, Cyprus, and Denmark; however, Greece does have the ninth highest inflation rate in food compared to other EU nations.
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia believes that the US central bank has already raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to pre-pandemic levels of around 2%.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, stated that interest rates in the European Union will need to remain high for as long as necessary to combat persistent inflation, despite progress made, at an annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The spike in retail inflation has raised uncertainty for investors and savers, with expectations of interest rate cuts being pushed to the next fiscal year and the possibility of a rate hike. The Reserve Bank of India projects inflation to stay above 5% until the first quarter of 2024-25, and food price pressures are expected to persist. While inflation may impact stock market returns, gold and bank deposit rates are expected to remain steady.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain high interest rates for as long as necessary to combat persistent inflation, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde, amid efforts to manage a stagnating economy; however, the ECB is also considering longer-term economic changes that may contribute to sustained inflation pressures.
Euro zone growth is weaker than predicted, but the need for more rate hikes by the European Central Bank is not automatically voided, according to ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, who raised concerns about investors undoing the ECB's past work and the decline in real risk-free rates counteracting efforts to bring inflation back to target.
Euro zone inflation for August exceeded analysts' expectations, remaining unchanged from the previous month at 5.3%, posing a dilemma for the European Central Bank.
Euro zone inflation holds steady in August, but underlying price growth falls, complicating decisions for the European Central Bank as it considers a pause in rate hikes amid a slowdown in economic growth.
US inflation remains above 3% as the cost of goods and services rose by 0.2% in July, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve may freeze interest rates to manage inflation without causing a recession.
Consumer prices in the eurozone rose 5.3% on average this month compared to last year, with core inflation easing to 5.3%, potentially increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates.
Eurozone inflation remains at 5.3%, leading analysts to speculate that the ECB may consider pausing its interest rate hikes in light of a slowing economy.
The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates on September 14, although nearly half of economists anticipate one more increase this year in an effort to reduce inflation.
The euro zone's economy is expected to grow slower than previously forecasted due to high inflation and Germany slipping into recession, according to the European Commission.
Germany's economy is expected to contract by 0.4% in 2023 due to higher inflation, rising interest rates, and weaker consumer spending, making it the worst-affected major country in the eurozone, according to the European Commission. The overall eurozone economy is expected to expand by 0.8% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, leading to a potential halt in the European Central Bank's tightening of policy. Inflation in the eurozone is projected to average 5.6% in 2023.
The European Central Bank is expected to maintain steady rates as economic activity in the euro area decelerates and inflation erodes disposable income, with uncertainty surrounding the impact of weaker growth on inflation.
Inflation is expected to fall below the Federal Reserve's 2% target by late next year, despite a recent rise in consumer prices driven by increased energy costs.
The European Central Bank is facing a dilemma on whether to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation or hold off due to economic deterioration, with investors split on the likelihood of a rate hike.
The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates, but traders believe that any immediate risk to the euro is likely to be on the downside, and if there is a hike, it will likely be the last.
The European Central Bank has implemented its 10th consecutive interest rate increase in an attempt to combat high inflation, although there are concerns that higher borrowing costs could lead to a recession; however, the increase may have a negative impact on consumer and business spending, particularly in the real estate market.
The European Central Bank has raised key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to help bring down inflation, although the economy is expected to remain weak for a while before slowly recovering in the coming years.
The European Central Bank has raised its main interest rate for the 10th consecutive time to tackle inflation, but indicated that further hikes may be paused for now, causing the euro to fall and European stocks to rally.
Following the European Central Bank's record high interest rate hike to 4%, there is speculation about how long rates will remain at this level, with analysts predicting a 12-month pause before any cuts are made, while also considering the impact of rising oil prices on inflation expectations in Europe and the US. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in September, but there are divided opinions on whether another hike will be delivered this year, with markets anticipating rate cuts in 2024. Similarly, the Bank of England is anticipated to make one final hike in September as it assesses inflation and economic indicators.
Euro zone consumer inflation in August remained more than twice the European Central Bank's target, with a year-on-year rate of 5.2%, although slightly lower than initially estimated, according to Eurostat.
Inflation in Britain slowed for a third consecutive month in August, defying expectations of a rise due to higher fuel prices, with consumer prices rising 6.7 percent compared to the previous year, driven by slower increases in food prices and a decline in hotel room costs. Core inflation also fell more than anticipated, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures, though price growth remains uncomfortably high. The Bank of England is set to announce its decision on interest rates, with growing speculation that rates may be held steady due to signs of slowing inflation and a weak economy.
The Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates until inflation decreases, even if it means more people losing their jobs, according to CNBC's Jim Cramer.
The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but left room for potential rate hikes, as they see progress in fighting inflation and aim to bring it down to the target level of 2 percent; however, officials projected a higher growth rate of 2.1 percent for this year and suggested that core inflation will hit 3.7 percent this year before falling in 2024 and reaching the target range by 2026.
Sweden's central bank has raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive time to combat high inflation, as the country's economy shows signs of improvement, while Norway's central bank also opted to raise rates and signaled the likelihood of another hike in December.
Turkey's central bank raises interest rates to 30% as it seeks to combat high inflation and stabilize the weakening lira.
Central banks around the world may have reached the peak of interest rate hikes in their effort to control inflation, as data suggests that major economies have turned a corner on price rises and core inflation is declining in the US, UK, and EU. However, central banks remain cautious and warn that rates may need to remain high for a longer duration, and that oil price rallies could lead to another spike in inflation. Overall, economists believe that the global monetary policy tightening cycle is nearing its end, with many central banks expected to cut interest rates in the coming year.
The euro zone economy is expected to contract this quarter and remain in recession as the impact of central banks' interest rate rises hampers growth, according to a survey by HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with Germany and France experiencing significant declines in business activity.
High inflation continues to pose challenges for central banks in Europe as some opt to pause interest rate hikes after nearly two years, leading to speculation on how long rates will remain at current levels and how to balance slowing economies, persistent inflationary pressures, and the delayed impact of rate hikes.
The head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that interest rates will remain high to combat inflation, despite acknowledging the impact it has on homeowners with variable interest rate mortgages, as upward pressure on prices persists in the eurozone.
Euro zone annual inflation dropped to its lowest level since October 2021, falling to 4.3% in September, while core inflation decreased to 4.5%, prompting uncertainty over potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
The European Central Bank's efforts to curb inflation through interest rate hikes have led to the lowest inflation rate in the euro zone in two years, indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman suggests that further interest rate hikes may be necessary to bring inflation back to the central bank's target of 2%, despite recent data showing slower price increases.
The euro area is experiencing stagnated economic activity and weakening growth, leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to adjust its monetary policy by raising interest rates to combat inflation; however, uncertainties remain regarding the transmission of monetary policy and potential risks to economic growth.
The European Central Bank's cycle of interest rate hikes has likely ended, according to ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno, as inflation in the euro zone is declining faster than it rose.
The European Central Bank's policy, as stated by President Christine Lagarde, aims to bring inflation to 2% and avoid an inflationary spiral, while maintaining a cautious but optimistic outlook on short-term growth prospects.
Underlying US inflation is expected to rise, supporting the idea that interest rates will need to remain higher for a longer period of time, as indicated by central bankers.
The September CPI report is expected to show that inflation remains above the Fed's target, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike and raising inflation expectations for 2023, potentially leading to further upside risk to rates from Treasury auctions.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised its key interest rates for the tenth consecutive time in response to a series of crises and the need for price stability, although the rise has caused concerns about the level of interest rates and their impact on growth; ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasizes the need to make inflation projections more robust and to communicate effectively with the public to counter misinformation.
The upcoming monthly inflation report is expected to show that inflation in the US is cooling off, with overall prices for consumers rising by 0.2% compared to August and 3.6% compared to a year ago, indicating slower price increases in September than in August. However, if the report reveals that inflation remained higher than expected, especially in core areas, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again, further slowing the economy.