China's slowing economy and worsening macroeconomic indicators may be good news for oil prices, as it could lead to changes in monetary policies and stimulate global demand for oil. Investing in oil ETFs, particularly the Energy Select SPDR Fund (XLE), which includes stable and profitable companies, may be a reliable option. There are risks involved, but with tight oil supply and central banks' desire to avoid an economic downturn, oil assets could still be favorable.
Summary: Oil prices are expected to continue rising due to tightening in the physical market, with a projected deficit of 2MMbbls/d in the second half of 2023, and forecasts of Brent averaging $86/bbl over 3Q23 and $92/bbl over 4Q23, while the medium sour crude market tightens, and concerns remain over Russian oil supply risks and global demand.
The short-covering rally in petroleum prices lost momentum last week due to prices and positions reaching long-term averages, as well as the seasonal slowdown in trading and investment activity. Hedge funds and money managers made no net change in their combined position in oil-related futures and options contracts, with bullish sentiment higher for refined fuels than for crude petroleum. Meanwhile, positions in U.S. natural gas remained unchanged as fund managers reduced both long and short positions as a risk-reducing measure following recent price and position increases.
Diesel prices have surged due to lower inventories of middle distillates in the US and Europe, with hedge funds betting on higher prices amid concerns about reduced supply and increased demand. Refining margins have also strengthened as a result of tighter supply of crude and fuels.
Crude oil prices continue to decline due to concerns about demand in China and the United States, despite positive news of production cuts and high global oil demand; technical charts indicate the possibility of further short-term losses.
Oil prices edge higher in an uncertain market as US crude futures rise 0.1% to $78.94 a barrel, despite a 2% drop for the week, due to production cuts by major oil producers and a mixed US economy.
Oil prices rose over 1% as the dollar strengthened ahead of a speech by the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve for clues on interest rates, with Brent crude reaching $84.29 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude at $79.92, while a strong dollar and recent inventory draws affected demand and supply.
Oil futures rose to a one-week high due to a surge in U.S. diesel prices, a decrease in oil rigs, and a fire at a Louisiana refinery, despite weak economic data and a stronger dollar.
Crude oil prices are trying to recover and show signs of support, with a "buy on the dips" attitude prevailing due to Saudi Arabia holding 1 million barrels per day out of the market, although supply concerns may arise despite a global slowdown.
Oil prices continue to trade sideways this week, with supply shocks being counteracted by continued macroeconomic pessimism and the issuance of product export quotas by China.
Crude oil prices rose after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected inventory decline of 10.6 million barrels for the week ending August 25.
A group of oil analysts and economists have raised their 2023 oil price forecasts, predicting Brent crude will average $82.45 a barrel and that Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntary oil supply cut into October.
Oil traders expect supply tightness to ease in the next two months as refineries prepare for end-of-summer maintenance, but the sour crude market will remain tight due to ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ members, according to the CEO of Vitol, Russell Hardy.
Crude oil prices remain high, supported by production cuts and a decrease in inventory, while the WTI futures contract reached a 10-month peak at $86.09 and the Brent contract traded above $89 for the first time since January.
Oil prices jumped over 2.5% after OPEC+ members extended supply reductions, with Brent International topping $90 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate hovering above $87 per barrel, as Saudi Arabia announced an extension of its production cut and Russia reduced its exports. Despite slow recovery and increased production, crude futures have rallied more than 25% since late June, with experts predicting prices to continue rising unless a recession occurs. China's demand for petrochemicals has been dampened, but their mobility demand post-lockdowns has offset this.
Oil prices could reach triple-digit territory by next year if Russia and Saudi Arabia maintain their aggressive supply cuts, according to Goldman Sachs, with Brent crude potentially climbing to $107 a barrel by December 2024.
Crude oil prices in the US increased due to a 6.3 million barrel inventory draw, following a massive decline of 10.6 million barrels the previous week, bringing inventories to the lowest in eight months.
The US continues to see draws in crude inventories, tightening markets, despite Saudi Arabia and Russia's extension of production and export cuts, as well as other energy news such as the cancellation of Alaskan drilling, Kurdistan's demand for funds, and the spike in jet fuel costs.
Hedge funds are returning to the oil market with their most bullish wagers in over a year, as the deflationary price effect from US gasoline has disappeared and oil prices have surged since June due to production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Oil prices are reaching their highest levels in 10 months, leading to gains for energy stocks like Pioneer Natural Resources and Coterra Energy, prompting Jim Cramer to suggest it's a good time to invest in these companies.
US crude oil prices have surged and the futures strip has moved into a sharp backwardation as inventories have drained away from the NYMEX delivery point at Cushing in Oklahoma, but this may be exaggerating the tightness of supplies across the rest of the country and the world.
Oil prices continue to rise as OPEC+ supply cuts tighten the market, with Brent crude surpassing $94 a barrel and speculators increasing bullish wagers on Brent and West Texas Intermediate, leading to concerns about inflationary pressures.
Some grades of crude oil, including Nigerian crude Qua Iboe and Malaysian crude Tapis, are already trading above $100 a barrel, indicating expectations of tight supply, as oil prices reach their highest level in 2023 due to concerns about a supply deficit in the fourth quarter.
Global oil prices continue to soar, with Brent crude nearing $95 per barrel and some crude grades surpassing $100, driven by tight supply, excess demand, and production cut extensions by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Goldman Sachs predicts that crude oil prices could reach $100 a barrel, posing a risk to global economic growth and complicating central bankers' efforts to control inflation, which could impact interest rate policies and further increase gasoline prices.
Oil prices dipped after reaching a 10-month high due to profit taking and anticipation of a Fed decision on interest rates, but analysts remain bullish on the future of oil.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors, and the movement of Brent crude oil will determine the direction of domestic markets this week, amid volatile trends and concerns including rising crude oil prices and FII selling.
Oil futures are slightly higher as investors assess the global economic outlook and central banks' decision to keep interest rates high to combat inflation, while rising Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar increase the appeal of oil.
Crude prices are expected to receive a boost as stockpiles at the key US storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, are at risk of reaching the lowest level in nearly a decade, potentially leading to a return of $100 oil by year-end.
Oil majors ExxonMobil, Chevron, and BP are near buy points as U.S. crude oil prices continue to rise above $90 per barrel.
Stock futures are falling as oil prices surge and the yield on the 10-year Treasury remains near levels last seen in 2007.
Oil prices hit their highest levels in over a year as ongoing production cuts raise concerns about the global economy, while the specter of $100 oil looms and supply tightness becomes apparent with reduced stockpiles and increased refining. Higher interest rates may dampen crude demand, but for now, the focus remains on supply.
Oil industry analysts have raised their price forecasts for 2023, with most expecting Brent Crude to average $84.09 per barrel, but few foresee sustained $100 oil due to an artificially tightened market and uncertain global economic outlook.
The recent increase in oil prices has analysts debating whether the rally will continue or fizzle out, with the bulls predicting prices in triple digits and the bears foreseeing a drop below $90 by Christmas, but it is expected that the market will be tight until January before the bears gain the upper hand next year.
US oil prices and energy stocks, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum, fell as crude oil inventories decreased but gasoline stockpiles increased, while the outlook for demand remains uncertain and refinery stocks struggle.
Crude oil prices are poised to experience their largest weekly drop since March due to concerns about weak demand, a bond market selloff, and economic worries, despite OPEC+'s decision to maintain supply constraints.
WTI crude oil has experienced increased volatility, leading to discussions about whether the market is broken, but from a structural perspective, both the noncommercial and commercial sides of the market remain bullish and the market is working as it should.
Crude futures fall over 2% as the conflict between Israel and Hamas shows no sign of spreading to Iran, while a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index inflation print also contributes to the decline in oil prices.
Crude oil prices dipped slightly following a significant increase in gasoline inventories, raising concerns about demand, despite the war premium added by events in the Middle East.
Summary: December West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures experienced volatility due to geopolitical tensions and conflicting reports on supply and demand, influenced by the Israel-Hamas conflict and the actions of Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and Russia.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the threat of a ground invasion of Gaza by Israel, have raised concerns about disruptions to oil supplies and driven up oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate crude climbing 3.6% to $85.93 a barrel and Brent crude jumping 4% to $89.41 a barrel.
Oil futures are being watched closely as Western leaders and diplomats warn Iran against getting involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has the potential to lead to a ground invasion of Gaza, causing volatility in the energy markets and prompting investors to trade options and seek classic hedges such as gold and Treasuries.
Bitcoin futures prices are higher in early U.S. trading, with bulls and bears on a level playing field and the next direction of trend to be determined by a breakout above the resistance line or below the support line.
Gasoline prices in the US are continuing to decline despite a 5% increase in crude oil futures since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, primarily due to the switch to a cheaper winter blend driving fuel and lower seasonal demand, as well as increased refined products supply and higher inventories compared to last year.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are investing billions in buying oil and gas assets, despite predictions of declining oil demand, in a stark contrast with the growing renewable energy sector.
Crude oil prices in major physical markets have weakened due to increased freight costs and declining refining margins, indicating potential demand weakness that could impact the futures market.
Oil prices remain stable as the market assesses tensions in the Middle East and higher U.S. crude stockpiles, with concerns about weak demand and macroeconomic factors limiting price gains.
