The US trade deficit in goods decreased by 7.3% in August to $84.3 billion, mainly due to reduced consumer imports like the new iPhone, which could boost the gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter.
China plans to implement measures to make it easier for foreign tourists to book tickets, register at hotels, and use overseas bank cards, in order to boost tourism numbers.
Rising Treasury rates and oil prices are creating an unfavorable situation for consumers, investors, and the economy, making it challenging for the Federal Reserve to manage inflation without causing a recession. The potential for a "soft landing" and decreased inflation remains, but the economy should prepare for possible sector-by-sector recessions and a full-blown recession, along with government shutdowns and fiscal policy disputes becoming normal occurrences. The discrepancy between short-term and longer-term rates controlled by the Fed has gained importance, with higher borrowing costs disrupting the stock and bond markets. In this volatile period, long-term investors should hold on and ensure they have enough money saved to weather the storm. While the Fed has pushed short-term rates higher, it has also benefited savers with higher yields on money market funds, short-term Treasury bills, and high-yield savings accounts. However, a strong dollar has impacted S&P 500 earnings, leading to a struggling stock market and increased costs for imports and exports. Rising interest rates pose the greatest economic challenge, affecting consumer loans and dampening spending. Traders who bet on long-term bonds have faced losses due to rising rates, highlighting the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. As a result, it may be advisable to purchase shorter-term Treasuries and keep bond durations lower. The surge in bond yields has also disrupted stock investors' expectations of controlled inflation and the Fed's tightening, leading to stock market losses. The economy and markets may experience more turmoil, as there are various factors beyond the Federal Reserve's control.
Sub-Saharan Africa's stock markets had a mixed performance in recent months, with some markets performing well and others falling, but factors such as economic growth, corporate earnings growth, and increased foreign investment are expected to support positive performance in the future.
Americans' views of the economy have worsened in September, with only 20 percent saying economic conditions are good and 73 percent believing that economic conditions in the country as a whole are worsening, according to a recent Gallup poll.
The overall inflation rate in most European countries dropped to its lowest level since before the start of the war in Ukraine, despite climbing oil prices, with consumer prices in the eurozone rising at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in September, down from 5.2 percent in August, according to the European Commission's statistical arm.
Canadian banks are facing major issues due to the large share of variable-rate mortgages, resulting in negative amortization and difficulties for borrowers in the rising rate environment.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation decreased in August, indicating that efforts to combat inflation are progressing, although there are still price growth pressures that could lead to further interest rate hikes by the central bank.
Investors are growing concerned about the possibility of stagflation as oil prices rise and inflation remains stubbornly high, with some predicting a recession is on the horizon. The recent surge in oil prices has amplified the risk of stagflation, characterized by slow growth, high unemployment, and soaring inflation. While unemployment rates are relatively low, fears are growing that mounting layoffs could change this. Analysts warn that the surge in oil prices will likely keep inflation higher and negatively impact economic growth. The global economy's escape from stagflation is now being reconsidered.
Financial risk strategist Larry McDonald warns that a slowdown in the economy and increasing debt levels may force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its strategy of hiking interest rates, potentially leading to a big debt default cycle next year, and advises investors to shift their focus from growth stocks to hard assets and commodities such as "sexy metals" like uranium and copper, as well as real estate and art.
The UK economy has outperformed France and Germany since the pandemic, with revised figures showing a 1.8% growth, boosting Chancellor Rishi Sunak, although economists caution that other countries may also revise their growth figures.
The U.K.'s economy has performed better than France and Germany during the Covid-19 pandemic, with GDP 1.8% larger than pre-pandemic levels, according to new data revisions from the Office for National Statistics; however, economists still view the U.K. as having a flatlining economy with growth prospects potentially decreasing due to monetary tightening.
Japan's core inflation slowed for the third consecutive month in September, mainly due to falling fuel costs, providing some relief for the fragile economic recovery; however, factory output remained flat in August, indicating the negative impact of weak global demand and China's economy.
Russian spies are using Latin America as a useful playground, while the podcast also remembers Colombian artist Fernando Botero.
Taylor Swift's Eras Tour has had a significant economic impact, injecting billions into the US economy, and her upcoming movie is expected to do the same, making her an economic powerhouse; furthermore, her appearance at an NFL game increased viewership and boosted merchandise sales.
Lower income households and Black and Latino communities will face significant economic hardships due to the expiration of COVID-19 federal support programs, a potential government shutdown, the end of federal funding for childcare, and the resumption of student loan debt repayments.
Despite ongoing concerns about lackluster growth, revised data shows that the UK's economy has grown faster than originally estimated since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, outperforming France and Germany.
Euro zone annual inflation dropped to its lowest level since October 2021, falling to 4.3% in September, while core inflation decreased to 4.5%, prompting uncertainty over potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a surge in entrepreneurship in the United States, with new research suggesting that changes in consumer behavior, company dynamics, and federal stimulus funds have fueled this trend.
The Biden administration is set to release a playbook on training workers to address the low unemployment rate and worker shortages in industries such as manufacturing and construction. The playbook encourages the use of registered apprenticeship programs and highlights investments made by state and local governments in worker training.
China's economy is showing signs of a stronger recovery, with indicators such as increased activity around shopping malls, a pickup in cement manufacturing, and a surge in traffic congestion, suggesting renewed consumer confidence and a positive direction for the construction sector.
The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates elevated through 2024 is causing damage to the economy, resulting in falling stock prices, soaring debt costs, and negative impacts on sectors such as housing and commercial real estate. This poses a potential challenge for President Joe Biden's reelection campaign, as the economy struggles to handle the highest borrowing costs in two decades.
U.S. stocks mostly fell as investors considered the latest inflation data from the Federal Reserve, marking the end of a turbulent month for the market.
China's real estate crisis, highlighted by Evergrande's bankruptcy, is leaving homebuyers worried about the fate of their investments as other property giants face similar financial troubles and fears of house price depreciation rise.
The growth forecasts for Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand have been downgraded due to declining exports to China and other factors, according to a survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research and Nikkei.
The strain from interest rate hikes is starting to impact the real estate market, particularly in Germany and London, as well as the Chinese property sector; corporate debt defaults are increasing globally; banking stress remains a concern, especially regarding smaller banks and their exposure to commercial real estate; and the Bank of Japan's tighter monetary policy could lead to a sharp unwind of investments, potentially impacting global markets.
The UK economy has performed better than previously estimated during the COVID-19 pandemic, with growth outpacing Germany and France but lagging behind the US, according to revised official data, although households are still facing cost of living pressures.
UK mortgage approvals have reached their lowest level in six months due to high interest rates cooling the housing market, according to the Bank of England, with net mortgage approvals for house purchases falling to 45,400 in August from 49,500 in July.
China's small economic rebound appears to have stalled in September, with weak retail sales, manufacturing production, and loan growth, raising concerns about anemic third-quarter growth and the country falling short of its growth target.
China is adding 2,500km of high-speed railways this year to meet rising demand and boost the national economy, with plans to reach a total length of 50,000km by 2025.
The recent talks between SAG-AFTRA and the video game industry have concluded without an agreement, while the union's 160,000 members have overwhelmingly voted in favor of a possible strike against 10 major video game companies.
India's labor force lags behind China's, with a labor force participation rate of only 51% compared to China's 76%, and India will need a participation rate of over 70% by 2030 to match China's labor force size, according to Oxford Economics; the country's low labor rate and productivity are attributed to inadequate education and health care standards.
The return of Australian barley imports to China is expected to lower costs for craft beer brewers and bring happiness to the industry, after heavy anti-dumping tariffs were imposed in 2020.
China's economic outlook, particularly for the real estate sector, is expected to become clearer in the last three months of the year, with potential government support and loosening of restrictions to stabilize the housing market and allow the economy to recover fully by mid-2024. However, economists predict that real estate growth will remain weak and prices may fall gradually, as significant price declines could have adverse social consequences.
The UK government is on track to witness the highest level of taxation since 1948, with taxes projected to reach 37% of national income by 2024, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies' analysis. The increase is attributed to factors like government spending, demographic changes, and health service pressures, rather than solely the pandemic.
British households are expected to spend £3,500 more per year in tax due to increases introduced over the current parliament, resulting in taxes amounting to 37% of national income and the biggest tax burden since the 1950s, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was initially an economic plan to overcome China's economic challenges, but it has evolved into a geopolitical strategy, unsettling Western nations as China aims to expand its influence and showcase a different model of development, although its ambitions are still primarily focused on its own region. China's engagement with the world through the BRI has both benefits and costs, leading some countries to reassess their dependence on China.
China's economic slowdown is unlikely to trigger a global catastrophe, but multinational corporations and those indirectly linked to China will still feel the effects as household spending decreases and demand for raw materials drops. China's reduced investment abroad may affect developing countries' infrastructure projects, while the impact on China's foreign policy remains uncertain. However, concerns of a financial contagion similar to the 2008 crisis are deemed unlikely due to differences in China's financial infrastructure. While the extent of the impact is unclear, local concerns can still have unforeseen effects on the global economy.
The U.S. economy is facing challenges from multiple sources, including a government shutdown, labor and energy pressures, and the possibility of a recession, with rate hiking cycles that start with elevated inflation tending to end in a recession.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of education in the economy and highlighted how teachers play a critical role in the Federal Reserve's mission to promote a healthy economy.
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of price growth is expected to show that the fight against inflation is back on track after a summer setback.
Mortgage rates have surged to their highest level since 2000, posing challenges for prospective homebuyers and potentially worsening the affordability of houses.
Altimeter founder and CEO Brad Gerstner discusses the risks of investing in the current interest rate cycle at the Delivering Alpha Investor Summit.
Cuba is expected to experience significant power blackouts due to fuel shortages, exacerbating the country's existing issues with food and medicine shortages.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has reached its highest level in nearly 23 years, causing both buyers and sellers to hold out due to rising house prices, low inventory, and high housing costs.
As interest rates continue to rise, the author warns of the potential consequences for various sectors of the economy, including housing, automotive, and regional banks, and suggests that investors should reconsider their investment strategies in light of higher interest rates.
Consumer spending remains resilient despite inflation and rising prices, contributing to economic growth, while the risk of a recession in the US has decreased but not disappeared completely.
Deutsche Bank's economists are still predicting a US recession despite the ongoing resilience of the economy, pointing to rapidly rising interest rates, surging inflation, an inverted yield curve, and oil price shocks as the four key triggers that historically have caused recessions and are currently happening.
The strength of the US consumer, which has been propping up the economy, is starting to crack due to factors such as student loan payments, soaring gas prices, rising insurance premiums, dwindling personal savings, and potential disruptions like the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown, raising concerns about a possible recession.
China Evergrande Group's founder, Hui Ka Yan, is under investigation for suspected "illegal crimes," raising concerns among creditors about the company's future as it faces a debt revamp plan and liquidation risk. The investigation marks the first indication that authorities could hold the billionaire accountable for Evergrande's financial troubles, which have had a significant impact on China's property sector and economy as a whole. The investigation has disrupted the hopes of successful restructuring and has increased the likelihood of liquidation.