Stimulus or bust: Investors staying out of China until the spending starts
Global investors are urging China's leadership to increase fiscal stimulus and spend more in order to revive the economy and address the property crisis, as they express frustration with the slow and insufficient measures taken by the Chinese government to boost growth.
A visual representation of the G20's corporate subsidies reveals that China and the US are responsible for a significant number of market distortions, with China's subsidies primarily consisting of financial grants and the US offering grants, loans, and production subsidies; the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in market distortions in 2020.
The Chinese bond market is experiencing a significant shift due to concerns over China's economic growth prospects, including a bursting property bubble and lack of government stimulus, leading to potential capital flight and pressure on the yuan, which could result in increased selling of US Treasuries by Chinese banks and a rethink of global growth expectations.
China's property crisis raises concerns about a potential "Lehman Moment" and investors are eagerly waiting to see how Beijing will handle the mounting problems.
China is implementing measures to boost household spending, ease property policies, increase car purchases, improve conditions for private businesses, and bolster financial markets in an effort to revive the economy's recovery and improve the business environment.
China's regulators are struggling to attract global funds to invest in the country's stocks due to a lack of strong stimulus measures to support growth, resulting in a slump in the MSCI China Index and significant outflows from the mainland market.
There are growing concerns that China's economic growth is slowing, and there are doubts about whether the Chinese government will provide significant stimulus to support its trading partners, including Australia, which heavily relies on China as its top trading partner. China's economic slowdown is attributed to various factors such as trade tensions, demographic changes, a property market slump, and the lack of cash support during COVID-19 restrictions. While some experts remain optimistic that the Chinese government will implement stimulus measures, market sentiment is becoming strained, and patience is wearing thin. The impact on Australia's economy and stock market could be severe, particularly affecting mining companies, banks, construction, tourism, education, and listed fund managers.
China has introduced new mortgage policies to boost its property market and stimulate economic growth by allowing more people to be classified as first-time homebuyers and receive lower mortgage rates.
China needs to fully utilize policy space to bolster economic growth and market expectations by making significant adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, according to a senior economist and political adviser. The economist emphasizes the importance of sending strong signals to the market and considers options such as interest rate cuts, increased deficit-to-GDP ratio, and infrastructural improvements to address economic challenges caused by global demand stagnation and tightened US monetary measures.
China's economic slowdown is causing alarm worldwide, with countries experiencing a slump in trade, falling commodity prices, and a decrease in Chinese demand for goods and services, while global investors are pulling billions of dollars from China's stock markets and cutting their targets for Chinese equities.
Chinese officials have implemented aggressive measures to address the lack of confidence in the struggling economy, but analysts believe that more stimulus is needed for a sustained market rally and to stabilize the property sector.
China is facing increasing financial stress as a property giant seeks to avoid default and a state-run bad debt manager experiences a bond slump, contributing to concerns about the country's economy.
China's largest banks are preparing to cut interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits in an effort to stimulate consumer spending and support economic growth; the move is part of the government's targeted measures to alleviate pressure on lenders' profit margins and encourage investment in the stock market.
China's "shadow banking" sector is facing a crisis as the government struggles to maintain economic growth, with concerns about the solvency of trust companies like Zhongrong International Trust Co.; however, a new analysis suggests that the government's ability to use fiscal stimulus may be more limited than many believe.
China is planning to relax home-purchase restrictions and implement new measures to address the debt crisis in its property sector, which accounts for a quarter of its economy, in an effort to boost consumer demand.
China's recent stimulus measures to boost its economy, including reducing down payments for homebuyers and lower rates on mortgages, are impressing the markets and may dictate the direction of the commodity market.
China's economic growth is slowing down due to a property market downturn, softening demand for exports, and low household spending, which is causing concerns about a possible economic crunch point. Policymakers need to increase household consumption and implement structural reforms to stimulate growth.
Chinese stocks surged as the government implemented additional measures to support the property sector, signaling a determination to boost the economy by addressing issues in the struggling housing market.
Global shares rise on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further and hopes for policy stimulus in China, while investors await key readings on U.S. services and Chinese trade and inflation later in the week.
Global stocks rise as a Chinese rebound, prompted by eased mortgage rules, boosts the country's struggling property sector. Goldman Sachs predicts more stimulus to come.
China's economic slowdown is posing a significant challenge to President Xi Jinping's agenda, forcing him to make difficult choices and potentially relinquish some control over the economy. The slump in housing sales and the crackdown on private capital are among the factors contributing to the economic setbacks, prompting calls for change and a reevaluation of economic policies under Xi's highly centralized leadership. However, Xi seems reluctant to make major changes to his strategy, opting for a hands-off approach and avoiding a big rescue plan for distressed developers and local governments. The central government's control over taxes and the need to revamp the fiscal system further complicate the situation. Restoring government finances while reassuring private investors is a daunting task that requires strong leadership and potentially contentious policy changes. The upcoming Communist Party meetings will shed light on how Xi plans to restore confidence in his economic agenda, but some economists and former officials warn that time may be running out for China to embrace necessary reforms.
China is considering further easing measures in the property market and increasing fiscal support for infrastructure investment to boost economic growth in the fourth quarter, as sluggish demand remains a challenge.
China's economic crisis can only be resolved if the country embraces stimulus measures and allows its citizens more financial independence, according to economist Paul Krugman.
China's measures to support the property sector, such as lowering mortgage rates, have limited impact on consumer spending due to the dire economic outlook and lack of longer-term reforms, highlighting the need for resources to be transferred to consumers from other sectors of the economy.
Chinese stimulus measures are unlikely to be implemented on a large scale, dampening expectations of China becoming the world's largest economy and leading to lackluster economic performance in the near future.
Chinese property stocks and Japanese government bonds set the tone for global markets as the Hang Seng property index dropped to a fresh September low before rebounding on news that Country Garden won creditor support to delay onshore bond payments, while the Bank of Japan's comments about potential stimulus exit in 2023 pushed the local bond market, and the week ahead is marked by important policy meetings by the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, and the ECB.
China's economy is facing both cyclical and structural stress, but the government is well-equipped to manage the situation through incremental stimulus and reform, according to U.S.-China Business Council President Craig Allen.
China's economy is facing challenges due to its real estate crisis and high levels of mortgage debt, but the government is hesitant to provide fiscal stimulus or redistribute wealth, instead aiming to rely on lending to avoid a potential recession. Banks have cut interest rates and reserve requirements, but it is unlikely to stimulate borrowing. However, economists predict that policymakers will intensify efforts in the coming months, such as changing the definition of first-time home buyers and implementing property easing measures, to address the economic downturn.
A retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing China's global market influence and accelerating its decoupling from the rest of the world, due to economic concerns, tensions with the West, and a property market crisis.
Signs of improvement in China's economy, such as improving credit demand and easing deflationary pressures, may not be enough to stabilize the economy due to bigger concerns of decreasing affordability, tight wages, and rising costs that have not been addressed. A comprehensive policy revamp may be necessary for China's economy to recover.
China's credit is expanding rapidly, with total social financing increasing by over 3 trillion yuan in August, mainly driven by government financing, indicating positive signs of economic stabilization and recovery from the slump in the second quarter. Additionally, recent policy measures, particularly in fiscal and property sectors, are expected to further stimulate the economy.
