The predictive power of yield curve inversions as indicators of economic recessions has weakened, as recent events have shown discrepancies in their accuracy and limitations due to external factors such as inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policies, and fiscal stimulus.
Russia's oil and gas revenues are expected to rise to 733 billion roubles in September, reflecting a 14% increase from the previous month, due to a significant increase in proceeds from the mineral extraction tax.
China's central bank has reassured multinational companies such as Tesla and HSBC that it will optimize its policy support after a sell-off in the stock market and concerns over foreign investment, as firms continue to divert investment away from China due to national security regulation and decoupling risks with the US.
Britain will continue trade talks with India despite allegations from Canada, YouTube suspends Russell Brand from making money off the site after sexual assault claims, Sum 41's Deryck Whibley is discharged from hospital after pneumonia, a 14-year-old girl's family believes she was targeted by a member of the crew on a flight, 'Freedom Convoy' Facebook posts admitted as evidence in protest organizers' trial, and the Canadian dollar jumps to a six-week high on hot inflation data.
The U.S. economy is facing uncertainty and conflicting estimates, with regional Fed estimates showing significant divergence and risks of economic contraction or slow growth, while factors such as health insurance costs, wage growth, home prices, and rising gas and commodity prices could potentially cause inflation to rebound. Moreover, there are still risks and challenges ahead, making declarations of victory premature, according to Larry Summers.
The Biden administration's economic policies, known as "Bidenomics," have led to inflation and a decrease in median household income, causing American families to lose ground economically. The media's focus on the poverty rate ignores the negative impact of government welfare programs and inflation on Americans' financial well-being.
Chinese property developer Country Garden has received bondholders' approval to extend repayments on one of its local notes.
Hong Kong has lost its position as the world's freest economy to Singapore, according to a report by the Montreal-based Fraser Institute, which attributed the fall to erosion of impartiality in Hong Kong's legal system and judiciary.
Major financial institutions, including Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Truist, and Barclays, are undergoing top-level reorganizations and cost-cutting measures in response to the challenges posed by a high-inflation, high-interest rate environment, leading to layoffs and leadership changes; the shake-ups come as banks seek leaders with the skills to navigate the complexities of the current economic conditions.
Germany is facing an economic contraction due to challenges in the manufacturing sector, a disappointing China reopening boost, and higher energy costs, leading to a recession in Europe's largest economy. However, there are still some positive aspects, such as opportunities in Germany's small and mid-sized companies.
Canada's allegation of India's involvement in the murder of a Sikh separatist leader may have a limited economic impact but highlights the complications of de-risking from China and diversifying critical raw material supplies, while also prompting concerns about Indian-led bids in Canada and raising geopolitical tensions between the two countries.
Canada and India have expelled senior diplomats in response to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's allegations that the Indian government was involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader, with the US, UK, and Australia expressing concern and calling for a thorough investigation.
BlackRock has downgraded its rating for Chinese stocks from "overweight" to "neutral" due to concerns over slowing growth, limited stimulus, and geopolitical risks, as well as the ongoing crisis in China's property sector.
"Inflation expectations can influence actual inflation, as people's behavior and attitudes towards the economy play a role in price changes," according to Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan.
The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone has been revised down to 5.2% for August, but it remains well above the European Central Bank's 2% objective despite a decrease in consumer prices.
World markets are cautious ahead of central bank decisions and concerned about inflation signals amidst rising oil prices, as crude oil reaches its highest levels of the year due to supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, while US production also falls.
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a pause on interest rate hikes due to positive economic indicators and the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the economy, but future decisions will be influenced by factors such as the resumption of student loan payments and a potential government shutdown.
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain ultra-low interest rates and reassure markets that monetary stimulus will continue amidst China's economic struggles and the global impact of US interest rates.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's allegations of Indian government agents being linked to the assassination of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar have strained relations between India and Canada, impacting trade talks and potentially affecting the economic interests of Sikh families in India's state of Punjab, who have relatives in Canada.
Despite assurances from policymakers and economists, inflation in the US continues to rise, posing significant challenges to the economy and financial stability.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, but investors will be paying close attention to any indications of future rate increases as the central bank continues its fight against inflation.
Euro zone consumer inflation in August remained more than twice the European Central Bank's target, with a year-on-year rate of 5.2%, although slightly lower than initially estimated, according to Eurostat.
Germany is projected to be the most heavily impacted by the global economic slowdown due to higher interest rates and weaker global trade, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with its economy likely to shrink this year alongside Argentina and experience a weaker 2024. The slowdown in China, inflationary pressures, and tightening monetary policy are among the factors affecting Germany's growth. The OECD also warned of persistent inflation pressures in various economies and called for central banks to maintain restrictive interest rates until underlying inflationary pressures subside.
Rising oil prices pose a risk to the Federal Reserve's efforts to achieve a soft landing for the economy and return inflation to its 2% target without triggering a downturn.
India and Canada's trade talks have been affected after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau linked Indian agents to the murder of a Sikh separatist leader, prompting tensions between the two countries.
Investor negativity towards Chinese stocks is starting to shift as money managers halt or slow down cuts to their exposure, despite a bearish tilt in the market, signaling a potential change in sentiment and reliance on fundamental factors rather than hope for recovery.
Yield potential for Crop Watch corn and soybeans in the U.S. has slightly improved after weeks of decline due to drought conditions, but yields are still expected to be below last year's levels.
U.S. Treasury yields remained steady as investors awaited fresh economic data and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, with expectations of unchanged interest rates but uncertainty about future policy.
Germany, once an economic powerhouse, is now the worst-performing major developed economy due to factors such as the loss of cheap Russian natural gas, a slowdown in trade with China, and government inaction on chronic problems, leading to concerns of deindustrialization and the need for urgent solutions.
Global stock markets were mostly steady as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's September meeting, while Asia-Pacific markets saw some declines due to concerns over inflation.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently revealed that the one-sided foreign policy of the United States, including heavy-handed actions and economic sanctions, is causing countries in the BRICS and ASEAN alliances to move away from the US dollar and seek alternative currencies for global trade, potentially impacting the American economy.
Former Zimbabwe finance minister, Tendai Biti, has warned of an economic "disaster" if the country moves away from the dollar and joins the BRICS bank, as there is intense debate about de-dollarization within the bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
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Sunac and Country Garden, two major Chinese developers, have secured debt deals with creditors, providing some relief to the crisis-hit property sector; however, the recovery of home sales remains uncertain.
China's credit is expanding rapidly, with total social financing increasing by over 3 trillion yuan in August, mainly driven by government financing, indicating positive signs of economic stabilization and recovery from the slump in the second quarter. Additionally, recent policy measures, particularly in fiscal and property sectors, are expected to further stimulate the economy.
India has rejected allegations by the Canadian government that Indian agents were involved in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, dismissing the claims as "absurd" and "motivated."
The United States Deputy Secretary of Treasury, Wally Adeyemo, has stated that there is no quick and easy solution to Nigeria's economic challenges and emphasized the need for a macroeconomic framework to attract more foreign direct investments.
Pessimism among U.S. businesses operating in China is on the rise, with a record low percentage of firms optimistic about their five-year outlook, according to a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, driven by concerns over geopolitics and a slowing economy.
China is experiencing a significant outflow of capital, putting pressure on the yuan and raising concerns for authorities as the currency weakens and financial markets become destabilized.
American firms in China have become less optimistic about the country's future, with a survey revealing that only 52% of respondents are positive about the five-year outlook, the lowest since the survey began in 1999, and 40% of US firms are shifting their supply chains and investments away from China due to geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainties.
China-focused investment firms have struggled to generate returns for their investors, with only four U.S. dollar-denominated venture capital funds established between 2015 and 2020 able to return all the money invested, reflecting a lack of IPOs and the need for alternative exit strategies such as mergers and acquisitions or general partner-led deals.
China's government has been less transparent and tolerant of bad economic news, leading to concerns about the country's economic stability and potential risks for investors.
Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased for a second consecutive month in July, reaching $7.655 trillion, despite uncertain interest rates and mixed economic data, with China's holdings dropping to the lowest level since 2009, potentially due to pressure to defend its weakening currency.
China's economic data for August shows a mixed picture, with retail sales and production on the rise, property investment declining, and the urban jobless rate ticking downward, leading experts to believe that while there may be modest improvements in growth, a strong recovery is still unlikely.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes that despite the national debt nearing $33 trillion, the federal government's debt burden remains under control due to the net interest as a share of GDP remaining at a reasonable level. However, critics warn of the potential risks of a growing debt and credit bubble. Additionally, Yellen hopes for a quick resolution to the United Auto Workers' strike, stating that the economy remains strong overall.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has stated that in the event of a US government shutdown, it will stop releasing key data on inflation and unemployment, which could make it difficult for investors and the Federal Reserve to assess the state of the economy.
Chicago's derivatives firms are considering leaving the city due to proposed taxes and rising crime rates, which could have a significant impact on the city's finances and economy.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says it's too early to determine the impact of the ongoing autoworkers strike on the US economy, highlighting the need to assess the duration and scope of the strike, as negotiations continue between the United Auto Workers and the Big Three automakers.
Amazon ranks as the top global brand in 2023 with a value of $299 billion, followed closely by Apple at $298 billion, according to the annual ranking from Brand Finance, with the tech sector dominating the list.
The Biden administration is set to introduce new regulatory measures allowing more U.S. financial support for small private businesses in Cuba, aimed at easing restrictions and providing guidelines for loans to Cuban entrepreneurs through the U.S. financial system.