Main topic: Apple's financials in Q3 2023
Key points:
1. Apple's revenue from its Services segment reached an all-time high of $21.2 billion, growing 8% year-over-year.
2. iPhone, Mac, and iPad revenue declined compared to a year ago, with iPad sales experiencing the largest drop.
3. Overall, revenues dropped less than 2% year-over-year, while profits increased about 2% to $19.9 billion.
Main financial assets discussed: Apple (AAPL) stock
Top 3 key points:
1. Apple's valuation is high and its growth is slowing, making it difficult to justify its current market cap. The company's revenue has declined in recent quarters, and its forward P/E and P/S ratios are elevated.
2. Apple has potential for growth in emerging Asian markets, particularly India, where it currently has a small market share. The company's services ecosystem, including the App Store and subscription services, has been a source of growth.
3. Apple has a strong financial position, with high returns on invested capital, a large R&D budget, and significant free cash flow. This provides the company with flexibility and optionality for future growth and acquisitions.
Recommended actions: Hold
Apple's iPhone sales in China have surpassed those in the United States for the first time, contributing to Apple potentially becoming the biggest player in the smartphone market this year, despite global smartphone shipments being on track to be the worst in a decade due to economic headwinds in China and the US, according to Counterpoint Research.
The global smartphone market is expected to decline, but IDC predicts that Apple's iPhone market share will reach an all-time high due to trade-in deals, buy-now-pay-later schemes, and enticing features in their upcoming iPhone 15 Pro Max.
Apple plans to release the iPhone 15 in India simultaneously with its global launch in mid-September, signaling the company's progress in diversifying its supply chain away from China.
The iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro are expected to be announced on September 12, with pre-orders starting on September 15 and the release date set for September 22, 2023.
The iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max are expected to have a $100 price increase over the current models, according to analyst Dan Ives, but promotional activities and discounts from U.S. carriers are likely to drive sales and offset potential resistance.
Apple's iPhone 15 launch may face delays due to production issues, resulting in lower stock availability, while the iPhone 15 Pro Max is expected to be delayed by up to a month; leaked price details suggest a significant mark-up on the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max; Apple is rumored to be preparing a cheaper MacBook to rival the Chromebook, but it risks diluting its brand; the European Union has designated the App Store, Safari browser, and iOS as "gatekeepers" and plans to introduce regulations to prevent anti-competitive behavior; Apple's stock has fallen following restrictions on Chinese officials' use of iPhones.
The launch of the latest iPhones by Apple aims to boost consumers and investors amidst falling share prices caused by deteriorating international relations, with tensions between Beijing and Washington threatening sales in China, one of Apple's biggest markets.
Apple is set to release the iPhone 15 with incremental improvements including a lighter design, better chip, battery life, camera, and a USB-C charging cable, but the smartphone market is slowing down as people hold on to their devices longer and there is less incentive to upgrade.
Investors hoping for a surge in Apple's stock on iPhone launch days may be disappointed, as historical data shows that the stock usually falls on the day of the announcement and the release, but gains in the months following the release.
J.P. Morgan predicts that Apple's iPhone 15 could experience a sales decline due to the launch of Huawei's 5G Mate 60 Pro smartphone.
Summary: Apple announced the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro at its annual launch event, with the Pro model keeping the same price as last year's version, while the Nasdaq Composite suffered its first losing day in three, largely driven by a 13.5% drop in Oracle's shares.
Apple has increased the prices of its latest iPhones in countries like China, Japan, and India, while keeping prices the same in the U.S., as it aims to target premium users and reinvigorate growth in key markets. Although the price hikes are mainly for higher storage options and the more expensive models, Apple has also implemented price cuts in certain regions to target budget-conscious consumers.
Apple's latest iPhone, the iPhone 15 Pro, has shown better-than-expected lead times and pre-orders, dispelling investor concerns and suggesting strong early demand despite previous worries about a possible ban in China.
Despite lukewarm reception and concerns around a Chinese ban, pre-orders for Apple's iPhone 15 are exceeding expectations, especially for the iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max models, which are expected to boost Apple's average selling prices by approximately $100 over the past year.
Summary: Analysts say that the higher-end models of Apple's iPhone 15 are experiencing strong demand, which is encouraging amid concerns about consumers' spending capacity.
UBS analyst David Vogt's data suggests that initial demand for Apple's iPhone 15 Pro models is softer compared to last year's models, contradicting reports of strong sales, which caused Apple stock to fall.
Apple is expected to achieve year-over-year growth in Q4 thanks to better than expected iPhone revenue and profit, with the iPhone 15 Pro Max and iPhone 15 Plus performing well, while the standard iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro may face order cuts if their prices are not reduced, according to Ming-Chi Kuo's analysis based on supply chain sources.
The launch of Apple's iPhone 15, marked by sold-out pre-orders and long queues, comes after the company reported a decline in sales for the third consecutive quarter.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives believes that lukewarm reviews for Apple's new iPhone 15 may be overshadowed by strong sales, driven by a large number of iPhone users who haven't upgraded their phones in four or more years and the fear of missing out (FOMO), leading to potential pre-order rise and higher average sales prices (ASPs), suggesting that consensus analyst estimates for Apple's sales growth in 2024 could be conservative and projecting a $240 price target with 37% profit potential for Apple stock.
Apple plans to increase its production in India more than fivefold in the next five years, aiming for $40 billion, as it manufactures iPhones in India and has plans to start making AirPods next year.
This article mentions the stock of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). The author's recommendation is to buy Apple's stock.
The author's core argument is that Apple's historical growth and expanding margins make it an attractive investment. They also discuss the pricing strategies and innovations of Apple's new iPhone lineup, suggesting that it will drive sales growth. The author also addresses the potential challenges of prolonged upgrade cycles and the risks associated with the Chinese government's actions towards Apple. They provide valuation metrics and projections for Apple's future revenue and stock price.
Apple's iPhone 15 release provides insights into the global economy, with investors monitoring sales impact on the stock.
The iPhone 15 series will be launched in over 20 additional countries and territories on September 29, and all models will be available for ordering on the first day.
Google's market share for Pixel phones in the US doubled in Q2 2023 compared to the previous year, with shipment numbers increasing from 800,000 to 1.2 million, although Apple and Samsung continue to dominate the North American smartphone market.
The smartphone market in North America is experiencing a 12% decline in phone purchases, leading companies such as Samsung, Google, and Apple to focus on premium phone options to offset the overall sales decline, with Google being the only brand to see an increase in sales; however, the market is still moving towards premium smartphones as people are not replacing their devices as frequently as before.
In Q2 2023, Apple's iPhones dominated the global smartphone market with four models in the top four positions, surpassing Samsung's Galaxy phones, which struggled in the high-end segment, showing that Apple's quality outshines Samsung's quantity.
Apple's iPhone 15 is facing sales challenges in China, with a 4.5% decline compared to the iPhone 14, as competition from companies like Huawei impacts iPhone sales and market dominance.
Sales of Apple's iPhone 15 in China have been disappointing compared to its predecessor, with market analysts attributing this to weak consumption and the popularity of rival Huawei; however, in the US, the new iPhone is expected to show a double-digit rise in the first nine days of sales compared to 2022.
The global smartphone market contracted by 8% in the third quarter, reaching the lowest level in a decade, as demand for major brands like Apple and Samsung decreased in developed markets, according to data from Counterpoint Research.
The global smartphone market experienced a contraction of 8% in the third quarter, reaching its lowest level in a decade due to subdued demand for major brands like Apple and Samsung, which could impact upcoming earnings; however, there is hope that the market could recover in the last few months of the year with the release of the iPhone 15 lineup and the festive season in various regions.
Demand for Apple's iPhone 15 in China is weaker compared to last year's models, with sales down 4.5% due to competition from Huawei's new Mate 60 smartphone line and a floundering Chinese economy.
Overall global smartphone sales fell 8% in Q3, with Apple and Samsung losing market share to competing brands, but a rebound is expected in Q4 with the launch of the iPhone 15 and other holiday sales, according to Counterpoint Research.
iOS accounted for 39% of all US smartphone customers in the past year, representing a slight increase from 2022 but a decrease compared to 2021 and 2020, according to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP).
Demand for the iPhone 15 in China is lower than expected, facing stiff competition from Chinese smartphones, but sales remain strong in the US, and Apple is banking on increased interest in premium smartphones in India and a "seasonal recovery" in the European market to balance the scales, while analyst Jeff Pu predicts that the iPhone 16 models will be powered by chips from the A18 family instead of the A17 Pro.
The latest study from CIRP indicates that Apple holds a 39% market share for iPhones in the US, contradicting previous reports that suggested a higher market share of over 50%.
Despite a 3% drop in smartphone shipments compared to last year, improved consumer confidence and the launch of high-profile smartphones are expected to drive positive growth ahead of the festive season in India, according to Canalys; Samsung, Xiaomi, and Vivo emerged as the top three smartphone vendors.
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